INDONESIA - OCTOBER 20 AVIAN INFLUENZA (AI) UPDATE

UNCLAS JAKARTA 012828 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/IET, MED/DASHO/EMR AND MED DEPT FOR G/AIAG AND OES DEPT PASS TO USDA/FAS/DLP/HWETZEL AND FAS/ICD/LAIDIG DEPT ALSO PASS TO USDA/FAS/FAA/DYOUNG AND USDA/APHIS/ANNELLI DEPT ALSO PASS TO USAID/ANE/CLEMENTS AND GH/CARROLL DEPT ALSO PASS TO HHS/WSTEIGER/ABHAT/MSTLOUIS AND HHS/NIH PARIS FOR FAS/AG MINISTER COUNSELOR BANGKOK FOR APHIS/CARDENAS, RMO, CDC, USAID/RDM/A CANBERRA FOR APHIS/EDWARDS ROME FOR FAO NSC FOR JMELINE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: TBIO AMED CASC EAGR AMGT PGOV ID KFLU SUBJECT: INDONESIA - OCTOBER 20 AVIAN INFLUENZA (AI) UPDATE REF: A) Jakarta 12781 B) Jakarta 12253 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Coordinating Minister for Peoples' Welfare Aburizal Bakrie announced at an October 20 news conference a decrease in the number of AI-affected provinces over the past six months from 30 to 16. At the same news conference, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono announced government plans to force city residents to cage fowl. However, on October 22, critics including Indonesia Consumers' Foundation Chief Husna Zahier and sociologist Ida Ruwaidi reportedly expressed skepticism about the Government's plan to contain poultry in residential areas. With no new human cases since Ref A, as of October 27, NAMRU-2 data reflect 72 confirmed cases with 55 fatalities. End Summary. GOI Officials Make Positive AI Announcements -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At an October 20 press conference, several GOI officials announced recent progress in Indonesia's efforts to control AI. Coordinating Minister for Peoples' Welfare Aburizal Bakrie announced that the number of Indonesian provinces affected by the AI virus in poultry has fallen from 30 to 16 over the past six months. "That finding is based on our observations for the last six months", Bakrie said. "Fourteen provinces have been considered free or did not report any bird flu cases to the National Committee for AI Control and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness", he continued. "There have been massive vaccinations of livestock in areas prone to the virus." ¶3. (SBU) When we attempted to corroborate Bakrie's announcement, National AI Committee head Bayu Krisnamurthi told us that "14 provinces...in the last 6 months have not reported nor identified (from surveillance) any incident of AI in birds. These 14 provinces are part of the 30 provinces which are already endemic with AI." ¶4. (U) Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono announced at the same press conference Government plans to force city residents to cage fowl. "There will be a regulation that all poultry must be put inside cages, especially in urban areas", Apriyantono said. He did not disclose when the ban would take effect but noted that it needs to be further coordinated with other ministries, provincial administrators and the military. The timeframe "is being worked out" with experts from the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization, Apriyantono said, adding that GOI has the authority to enact the rule based on existing agricultural regulations. Doubts From Consumer Groups -------------- ¶5. (U) Despite the announcements by the two ministers, on October 22 Indonesia Consumers' Foundation Chief Husna Zahier and sociologist Ida Ruwaidi expressed doubts to Jakarta Post reporters about the government's plan to contain poultry in residential areas. Zahier noted the plan would be ineffective without a careful study of poultry and the relationship of poultry with their owners. "Keeping birds or poultry as a hobby or for eggs or meat is not the same," she said. Ruwaidi noted that quantity of birds, chickens and ducks that people kept in residential areas also mattered. "The large quantity of the poultry stock means that the whole community in the area, not just local administration or fowl owners should also take responsibility," she noted. She advocated that everyone in affected areas should be authorized to "enforce social control" and that individuals should be given authority to monitor and report on their neighbors whether poultry is caged or allowed to roam free. NAMRU-2 Human AI Case Profile -------------- ¶6. (SBU) NAMRU-2 reports no new human cases since Ref A. NAMRU-2 tested five patient samples from a reported Sulawesi cluster of suspected case over the weekend of October 21. All samples tested negative for H5N1. NAMRU-2 confirmed H1 (ordinary flu) for one of these samples. NAMRU-2 data indicates the following AI-related case profile as of October 27: -- Number of laboratory confirmed (positive PCR and/or serology) human AI cases: 72, of which 55 have been fatal (case fatality rate of 77 percent). -- Number of probable AI cases 3 (2 deaths, 67%). -- Number of cases awaiting analysis at the U.S. CDC: 3. -- Number of possible untested AI cases under investigation (last 30 days): approximately 28. Note: NAMRU-2 data corresponds with MOH data but may vary at times with AI case figures presented on the official World Health Organization (WHO) website, which usually lags NAMRU-2 data by one week. The WHO website, last updated on October 16, notes 72 human AI cases in Indonesia with 55 deaths. WHO figures can be accessed at www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza. PASCOE