Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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06ISTANBUL2100 | 2006-11-21 14:49:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Istanbul |
VZCZCXRO5164 PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHIT #2100/01 3251449 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 211449Z NOV 06 FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6371 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY |
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 002100 |
1. Summary. A largely academic audience responded positively to visiting scholar Dr. Ian Lesser of the Woodrow Wilson Center and former Foreign Minister Ilter Turkmen's discussion of the "Future of Turkish-American Relations." Lesser and Turkmen inaugurated Sabanci University's Istanbul Policy Center on November 17 addressing Turkish perceptions of the U.S. and anticipated changes in U.S. policy in Iraq. Lesser anticipated the Administration's policy in Iraq would shift to a "traditional, multilateral" approach, with U.S. troops redeploying to Northern Iraq, but no precipitate withdrawal. Lesser and Turkeman agreed that Turkey and the U.S. would both oppose a new nuclear power (Iran) in the neighborhood. Turkmen described the U.S.-Turkey relationship in largely favorable terms, but noted that public perception has a 'disturbingly' anti-U.S., anti-EU bent, fueled by nationalism as well as radical leftism and exacerbated by the summer 2006 Israeli military action in Lebanon. End summary. 2. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs (1980-83) and current Hurriyet columnist Ilter Turkmen and former S-S/P staffer (1994-95) and now public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center Dr. Ian Lesser addressed the opening of Sabanci University's Istanbul Policy Center. Turkmen's perspective is informed by 40-plus years of public service; he noted the U.S.-Turkey relationship always has ups and downs but that the relationship is distinguished as Turkey's lengthiest (formal) bilateral relationship. Current negative public perceptions of the U.S. are fed by radical leftists and nationalists, infused with a mixture of religious enthusiasm. Current public perceptions about the U.S., he argued, were mostly wrong but aggravated by disproportionate Israeli use of force against Palestinians generally and the Lebanese this past summer more particularly. Turks believe the U.S. colludes with Israel in these matters. Ian Lesser took note of rising nationalism in Turkey from left and right. Poll results count more today in terms of influencing government than they did in the Cold War period when there was a bilateral bargain for survival and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Lesser said that Turkey denied strategic use of Incirlik airbase, for instance. In the long term, however, the key question was not a particular issue like EU accession but Turkey's convergence -- or not -- with Europe and the West, which Lesser said is not in doubt. 3. Turkmen reflected on the huge - and positive - cultural shift brought about among Turkey's military elite through NATO membership and friendship with American general officers. He recounted his personal experience as a junior MFA officer assigned to Turkey's first NATO mission when the country had its first "annual review" in 1952. When Turkey was told it should retire its only (WW I) era battleship, some Turkish officers shed tears. The strong military relationship with the U.S. has forever marked the Turkish military culture and Turkey's general officers honor the vital contribution of the United States. 4. Turning to Iraq and the war on terror, Lesser said the U.S. administration departed from traditional regional approaches to problem-solving and instead focused on functional problems, with the U.S. asking friends and allies for specific favors, thus changing the "timbre" of relationships. The biennial U.S. elections helped the administration in moving toward a new policy it was already seeking. The Iraq effort had been a strategic U.S. error, according to Lesser, but not an existential one as it is for some of Iraq's neighbors, including Turkey. The current policy was not sustainable but headed toward a "more traditional, multilateral" approach; there would be no precipitate withdrawal but most likely a redeployed residual American force in Northern Iraq. Coordination and cooperation with Turkey would be an integral part of any such effort. Taking exception to Richard Haas' article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, Lesser thought chaos in Iraq and the region was not inevitable and that there were still options for unilateral U.S. involvement. Ambassador Turkmen said the U.S. experience in Iraq should be sufficient to dissuade Turkey from sending its troops into Northern Iraq, with or without an increased presence of U.S. troops in that region. On the PKK, Lesser counseled staying with the original intent of the Ralston mission to address Turkey's security concerns and avoid making it a trilateral exercise. Regionally, Lesser predicted the U.S. would back away from a policy of regime change with a much reduced interest in risk-taking. The EU, he said, could and should be involved in continuing tranformational efforts in the region with regime change no longer on the table. 5. Considering Iran's nuclear gambit, Turkmen said the atmosphere in Turkey was "disturbing" because of anti-U.S., anti-EU tendencies in Turkish public and foreign policy ISTANBUL 00002100 002 OF 002 circles. Were the AK Party not in control of the Prime Ministry, Turkmen said there would be Islamist radicals in the streets shouting, "Allahu akbar!" in support of Iran. Lesser did not anticipate a military option -- American or Israeli -- in dealing with the threat of a nuclear Iran and opined the region would have to deal with a nuclear or near nuclear Iran for some time. On the other hand, the U.S. remains the dominant military power in the region and could take certain military actions successfully on its own, such as keeping open the Strait of Hormuz. However, America's military power is not hegemonic and has lost a "soft power" buttress. Nevertheless, he argued, on all absolute issues, U.S. and Turkish views are convergent, both are status quo actors and neither want a new nuclear power in the neighborhood. 6. Comment. The audience was largely receptive and questions tended to mirror points in the presentations. Turkmen closed the session answering a question on the up-tick in Turkish nationalism. In 40 years in the diplomatic corps, he had never heard a colleague mention the Treaty of Sevres, underlining a point that the current fixation in some quarters, including among professionals, is not a healthy variant in the Republic's history. JONES |