DEMARCHE DELIVERED: POSSIBLE GOP TROOP

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 005931 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016 TAGS: PREL PK KPKO UN MASS SUBJECT: DEMARCHE DELIVERED: POSSIBLE GOP TROOP CONTRIBUTION TO UN DARFUR MISSION REF: STATE 51776 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) On April 5, poloff presented reftel demarche points to MFA (UN) Director Imran Siddiqui. Siddiqui said that the Government of Pakistan (GOP) was aware of the text of UNSCR 1663, but had not yet received a request from UN/DPKO to contribute troops or logistical support for a Darfur peacekeeping operation (PKO). Siddiqui said that he was not aware of any diplomatic sensitivities that would lead the GOP to decline to participate in a UN-led Darfur PKO, but that he could not speak to whether Pakistan's military services are in a position to add this PKO to the many others in which they are already serving. Siddiqui said that the MFA would circulate reftel points to the appropriate GOP agencies to initiate an interagency discussion to determine whether the GOP would contribute to the Darfur UN mission. ¶2. (C) Post's Office of the Defense Attache (DAO) advises that the GOP presently participates in 11 UN-led PKOs, with more than 9630 troops, military observers and police currently blue-hatted (approximately 7.6% of the 73,034 total UN mission personnel). As of February 28, Pakistani forces were serving in UN PKOs in: -- Western Sahara (MINURSO) - 7 observers -- Haiti (MINUSTAH) - 250 police -- D.R. of the Congo (MONUC) - 3563 troops, 43 observers -- Burundi (ONUB) -- 1193 troops, 5 observers -- Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI) -- 374 troops, 11 observers -- Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL) -- 1 police, 1 observer -- Timor-Leste (UNOTIL -- 4 police, 2 observers -- Kovoso (UNMIK) -- 158 police, 1 observer -- Liberia (UNMIL) -- 2731 troops, 5 police, 16 observers -- Sudan (UNMIS) -- 1202 troops, 23 police, 21 observers -- India/Pakistan (UNMOGIP) -- 10 observers ¶3. (C) Without knowing how many troops the UN DPKO is contemplating for the Darfur mission, post can offer only a rough estimate of the GOP's potential contribution. ODRP suggests requesting a brigade level of commitment (roughly 2200 troops) as an ambitious starting point for a discussion of a Pakistani contribution. A realistic expectation would be for a battalion sized element (roughly 650 troops). Pakistan should not be asked to support any helicopter lift requirements, as all assets are required for current GWOT efforts. ¶4. (C) Comment: Post wishes to add that, in addition to its extensive PKO commitments, Pak mil currently has approximately 35,000 Regular Army troops engaged in security operations against anti-Coalition militants and extremist elements in both North and South Waziristan along the Pak-Afghan border. (Note: In addtion to the regular Army forces, another 43,000 Frontier Corps troops are delployed along the border. End note.) Applying a general ratio of 3:1 required to sustain operations over the long-haul, the Pak mil commitment to FATA operations requires more than 100,000 troops. Any PKO contribution that would compromise this commitment should be avoided, thereby raising the prospect that contributions to a Darfur PKO would either come at the expense of Pakistan's current UN PKO commitments or require the GOP to draw from forces deployed on its eastern border with India. CROCKER