TRIBAL AREAS: TALIBANIZATION THREAT PERSISTS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 022449 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016 TAGS: MOPS PGOV PK AF PREL PTER SUBJECT: TRIBAL AREAS: TALIBANIZATION THREAT PERSISTS DESPITE NORTH WAZIRISTAN JIRGA AGREEMENT REF: A. ISLAMABAD 22070 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 20570 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Twelve weeks after the signing of the September 5 North Waziristan Agency (NWA) Jirga Agreement, the number of cross-border attacks from Pakistan into Afghanistan has declined. However, it is perhaps more likely that the decline is due to coalition force operations in Afghanistan or weather rather than the agreement itself. The security situation in the tribal areas remains unstable, with continuing reports that militants have decamped to agencies adjacent to NWA, such as South Waziristan and Khurram. There remains little evidence of assertion of government authority in North Waziristan. END SUMMARY. -------------- North Waziristan Agency Update -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The following recent incidents appear to violate the NWA Jirga Agreement: -- On November 19, militants killed religious leader Maulana Muhammad Hashim near Razmak, south of Miranshah. A note found near Hashim's body stated that he "spied for Americans and was a friend of Maulana Salah-ud-Din" (who was murdered November 3). (Violation: No targeted killings) -- On November 27, Maualana Gul Thaheem's body was found in a ravine near the border with South Waziristan. A note on his body accused him of spying for the U.S. (Violation: No targeted killings) -- On December 3, an Uzbek suicide bomber killed one police officer and injured another while they were trying to search him in the Domail area in Bannu. (Violation: No attacks on government officials) -------------- South Waziristan Agency Update -------------- ¶3. (C) National and local papers prominently featured BBC journalist Dilawar Wazir's kidnapping, torture and release November 20-21. Wazir was abducted, and eventually released, in Islamabad, though he often works out of FATA. During his capitivity, he was questioned extensively about recent travel to Bajaur Agency and about contacts in South Waziristan. Embassy contacts report that conventional wisdom indicates government officials kidnapped Wazir. Political cartoons in national newspapers support this perception. ¶4. (U) On November 19, a tribal chieftain presided over a jirga in Shakai. The jirga warned local people not to shelter foreigners. -------------- Update on Other Agencies -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In recent weeks, media reports and post's interlocutors have pointed to Taliban influence spreading into new areas -- such as Khurram, Darra Adamkhel and Bajaur -- closer to Peshawar than the Waziristans. The press has also reported intensification of militant activity in the Alizai Tehsil area spanning the border areas of Khurram, NWA, and Khowst (Afghanistan). ¶6. (SBU) Khurram: On November 24, eight reportedly pro-government tribesmen affiliated with NGO development work ISLAMABAD 00022449 002 OF 003 were kidnapped from the Khifyanga area near the North Waziristan border. Contacts have attributed the kidnapping to militants from NWA. Three hostages were recovered November 26 from an unknown location in NWA, with assurances from North Waziristan tribal elders that they would help secure the return of the remaining five hostages. ¶7. (C) Bajaur: On November 26, two masked gunmen ambushed and shot jeweller Shamroz Khan. This appears to be the first targeted-killing in Bajaur. According to press reports, locals thought Khan was pro-government and possibly a U.S. spy. In a separate incident November 29, two pro-government tribal elders escaped an assassination attempt when their car was hit by an IED in the Mamond Tehsil area. -------------- -------------- Attacks on Coalition Forces Near the Pakistan Border -------------- -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) Cross-border attacks persist but at lower levels than in September and October. The number of incidents reported by the Office of Defense Representative-Pakistan (ODRP) fell 40 percent between September and the comparable four-week period in November. Whether because of the jirga agreement, coalition force operations in Afganistan, or seasonal factors, the trend was clear. ¶9. (S/NF) Number of reported direct fire, troops in contact, and indirect fire incidents within five kilometers of the border from South Waziristan to Chitral: -- 47 incidents September 5 - October 1 -- 38 incidents October 2 - 29 -- 28 incidents October 30 - November 26 ¶10. (S/NF) ODRP reports the following security incidents close to the Pak-Afghan border. (Nearest Pakistani agency in parentheses): -- November 20: U.S. patrol engaged anti-coalition militia (ACM) south of forward operating base (FOB) Bari Kowt. (Chitral) -- November 21: Coalition Forces engaged ACMs near FOB Bermel and coordinated response with Pakistan military. (NWA/SWA) -- November 24: Rockets fired at Observation Post 4 from a point of origin within Pakistan -- a serious violation of the NWA Jirga Agreement. (NWA) -- November 25: U.S. patrol engaged ACMs around border control point (BCP) 213, near FOB Shkin. (SWA) -- November 28: FOB Bermel received small-arms fire (SAF) and mortars from ACMs, and coordinated response with Pakistan military. (SWA) -- November 28: U.S. patrol engaged ACMs near FOB Tillman. ACMs moved south and east, towards Pakistan. (NWA) -- November 30: In repeat of November 25 attack, ACMs directed SAF and mortars against BCP 213. (SWA) -- November 16-27: Four reports of rockets fired at FOB Bermel. (NWA/SWA) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) We continue to encourage the Government of Pakistan to monitor the NWA agreement closely and to develop enforcement mechanisms that will lead to sustained ISLAMABAD 00022449 003 OF 003 improvements on the ground on both sides of the border. End Comment. CROCKER