GOP STRATEGY FOR AFGHAN REFUGEES PLAGUED BY DELAYS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 022440 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR PRM/ANE KABUL FOR REFCOORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2016 TAGS: PREF PGOV AF PK SUBJECT: GOP STRATEGY FOR AFGHAN REFUGEES PLAGUED BY DELAYS AND INACTION REF: ISLAMABAD 21960 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, per 1.5 (B) and (D). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Pakistan's three-year Afghan refugee strategy remains stalled at the ministerial level with no firm date for signature and final approval. The plan hinges on several components: the registration of Afghan refugees to distinguish between refugees and migrants; promised camp closures; and Pak-Afghan-UNHCR cooperation within the Tripartite Agreement. The Government of Pakistan will need to move quickly if it is to implement the framework before the beginning of the March 2007 repatriation season. END SUMMARY Signing delayed again and again -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Government of Pakistan (GOP) has a three-year strategy for closing Afghan refugee camps and dealing with the 2.4 million refugees still in Pakistan, but it lacks signatures. The Foreign Minister and the Ministers of Interior, States and Frontier Regions, and Ports and Shipping all must sign it, but have not yet done so, ostensibly because they have been unable to schedule a four-way meeting. A September date slipped to October, with a postponement to November. A meeting set for last week was canceled at the last moment. When the four ministers sign the formal framework, it will go to Prime Minister Aziz for approval and become the GOP's official refugee strategy. (The provincial governments have already approved the plan and have assured Islamabad that they are on board with the program.) ¶3. (C) The delay has caused some observers to question the GOP's true commitment to closing refugee camps and the situation is frustrating, even for GOP officials. Dr. Zeb Khan, the Commissioner for Afghan Refugees and the principal drafter of the document, is one of the GOP officials most committed to the process. He told the Embassy that he is strongly urging Minister Rind (of States and Frontier Regions) to ensure the document is signed in time for Rind to present it to UNHCR in Geneva during a previously scheduled visit in mid-December. As of today it has not yet been signed. Registration behind schedule and under-funded -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The registration of Afghan refugees (those counted in the 2005 census and still resident in Pakistan) picked up steam in the past several weeks, but not enough to compensate for the initial weeks of delays due to glitches and growing pains. To date, more than 841,000 Afghans have been registered, or 35 per cent of the estimated 2.4 million expected to come forward. The GOP registering agency (NADRA) and UNCHR both admit that the registration will go beyond the December 30 deadline, probably through late January 2007. ¶5. (SBU) Funding for the registrations is USD 2.6 million short of the required USD six million. In addition to USD one million from the Department's Bureau of Populations, Refugees and Migration, the EC promised euros 1.5 million, (half of which has been given so far) and the UK gave USD 500,000. The GOP's contribution is the 3,500 GOP employees involved in the exercise. UNHCR is still looking for additional donations. Camp closures on track -------------- ¶6. (C) Currently both central and provincial government contacts maintain that orderly camp closures will go forward in 2007. At least four camps, two in Northwest Frontier Province and two in Balochistan, are slated for closure next year. Residents of closed camps will either repatriate or request relocation to another camp. With the significant increase (to USD 60 per person) in the repatriation cash package, the GOP hopes that many will take it and return to Afghanistan when the season begins in March. Tripartite coordination delayed -------------- ¶7. (C) The tripartite agreement among Pakistan, Afghanistan, and UNHCR will expire on December 31, but the parties have agreed in principle to extend it. The next quarterly meeting, originally set for December, is now scheduled for the second half of January. The postponement delays critical cooperation and work that needs to be done and will be useful only to the extent that the GOP and GOA actually use the time to adequately prepare. One encouraging result of the November 28 trilateral technical meeting in Islamabad was that the GOP agreed to share its (unsigned) three-year plan for camp closures and hoped-for repatriations with the government of ISLAMABAD 00022440 002 OF 002 Afghanistan over the next few weeks, hoping to have a consolidated plan ready by January. ¶8. (C) Comment: The GOP at the highest levels continues to say it is committed to closing refugee camps in the spring and dealing appropriately with Afghans, both refugees and others, but the government has failed to take critical steps to move the process forward. The Embassy continues to press the GOP for action, specifically to get the overall strategy signed and approved, to work closely with the GOA, and to prepare for physical camp closures in the spring. CROCKER