SUBJECT: BALOCHISTAN -- PAST THE CRISIS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 021904 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PK SUBJECT: SUBJECT: BALOCHISTAN -- PAST THE CRISIS? REF: REF: A) ISLAMABAD 17547 AND PRIORS B) ISLAMABAD 17594 C) ISLAMABAD 19193 Classified By: AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER, REASONS: 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. SUMMARY: (C) In the ten weeks since Nawab Akbar Bugti was killed in an encounter with the Pak Army, the Government of Pakistan has moved on several fronts to defuse another "nationalist" uprising by Baloch tribals who feel increasingly marginalized in their own province. Massive development packages targeting unemployment and social services, if they come to pass, may undercut some of the alienation felt by young Baloch men. Meanwhile, a court decision may void many of the land grants to Punjabi investors and Pak-Mil officers who hoped to benefit from the Gwadar port project. This could dilute Baloch complaints about "outside settlers." ¶2. (C) Bugti,s sons are unlikely to inherit control over the Jamhoori Watan Party Bugti founded and led; the party itself is in disarray. Other feudal lords (sardars) in Balochistan lack the standing Nawab Bugti enjoyed. President Musharraf,s on-again, off-again plan to hold a grand jirga, now scheduled for November 16, may further divide the sardars who feel threatened by the Army,s elimination of Bugti and disagree on how to move forward. GOP claims that attacks on government and infrastructure targets in Balochistan have declined since the death Nawab Bugti appear to be correct, although Ramadan may have played a part in the decline. Bombings in Quetta since the end of Eid may indicate a return of the nationalist sponsored violence, although some observers suspect at least some of the incidents were the work of the Taliban or Al Qaeda. END SUMMARY. A REALLY BIG STICK.... ¶3. (SBU) The death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, sardar of the Bugti tribe, at the hands of the Pakistan Army on August 26 temporarily united the Baloch tribes against the government of Pakistan (ref A). The September 21 grand jirga, called by the Khan of Kalat -- hereditary leader of the Baloch -- was a province-wide protest against the death of Nawab Bugti and the continued "colonial occupation" of their lands by "outsiders." (ref B). ¶4. (C) The unity and rise in outspoken nationalism after Bugti,s death have dissipated as time passed. His death gave the insurgents a new martyr, but it also cost them their most prominent spokesman. His political party, the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) was a power in the province; it began to splinter while he was on the run, and virtually collapsed after his death. Press contacts in Quetta claim military "agencies" are sewing dissent among JWP members in the provincial assembly -- some have already left the party -- and none of the Nawab,s three sons have the political acumen to assert control. Meanwhile, the GOP,s continued crackdown on other Baloch insurgent groups seems to have greatly weakened those groups, capacities. FOLLOWED BY THE PROMISE OF CARROTS ¶5. (C) PM Shaukat Aziz traveled to Quetta on October 12 to promise a 19.5 billion rupee (USD 325 million) aid package to increase employment, develop infrastructure and provide social services in the province. The press and many Baloch, while noting the government had made similar promises in the past, greeted the aid package announcement positively and said its implementation could do much to improve the government,s image in the province. Meanwhile, the Quetta bench of the Supreme Court on October 21 cited "glaring illegalities" in the allotment of land grants around Gwadar and ordered a review of allotments made in the last five years. Land prices around the port, which had fallen 50 percent during the two years of the Nawab,s standoff with the central government, fell an additional 50 percent after his death and are now 20-25 percent of their highs. Investment in the area will take some time to recover, but fewer Punjabi speculators coming into the area may reduce ISLAMABAD 00021904 002 OF 002 Baloch fears they are losing their province to outsiders. ¶6. (C) At the behest of Balochistan Governor Owais Ahmed Ghani, President Musharraf had planned to call and address a grand tribal jirga in Quetta on November 8, an event characterized in the press as a "counter jirga" to the Khan of Kalat,s conclave. For unspecified reasons, but probably related to security, Musharraf,s jirga was first relocated to Islamabad, and now appears to be scheduled for November 16 in Gwadar. Only sardars believed loyal to the government have been invited; there is some indecision among these sardars about attending, as none of their group had called for such an event. Balochistan Chief Minister Yousuf specifically excluded Sardar Ataullah Mengal and Akhtar Mengal, major powers in the Balochistan National Party. The press reports that Nawab Khair Bukhsah Marri and Nawab Bugti,s son Jamil were also not invited. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) For now, GOP administrative and political control of Balochistan appears to be increasing, and initial reaction to the planned development assistance indicates follow through on the package could go far to tamping down resurgent nationalism. The "Presidential jirga" is something of a risk for the GOP. Only sardars can call a jirga, and only the Khan of Kalat can call a grand jirga for the Baloch. Nationalists say those who attend the Islamabad-organized jirga have "no honor and dignity," a major insult in Baloch culture. A press contact in Quetta reports that those who attend will be "putting their lives at risk." Musharraf,s Gwadar conclave must deliver real benefits to the Baloch (jobs and development) to have any hope of further dampening their nationalism. CROCKER