MFA PREVIEWS EXPECTATIONS FOR COMPOSITE DIALOGUE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 021224



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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016

TAGS: IN, PK, PREL, PTER

SUBJECT: MFA PREVIEWS EXPECTATIONS FOR COMPOSITE DIALOGUE



Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (C) Summary: According to an MFA source, Foreign

Minister Khurshid Kasuri's comments during an Indian

television interview that he expected a breakthrough on the

Siachen Glacier dispute during upcoming Composite Dialogue

meeting were simply intended to generate positive public

atmosphere in advance of the talks. Pointing to strong

Indian constituencies opposed to a Siachen resolution, the

MFA has greater hopes for progress on Sir Creek, peace and

security issues and the mechanism for counter-terrorism

cooperation discussed by President Musharraf and Prime

Minister Manmohan Singh in Havana, as well as a handful of

other lesser deliverables. Jilani confirmed that FM Kasuri

hopes to call on his MEA counterpart during a personal visit

to India scheduled for late November. End summary.



2. (C) In an October 30 conversation, PolCouns asked MFA

Director General (India) Jalil Jilani about headlines in that

morning's papers that FM Kasuri expected a breakthrough on

the Siachen Glacier dispute at the November 14-15 Composite

Dialogue meetings. Jilani explained that the remarks, made

during an interview with an Indian television outlet, were

intended only to generate a positive buzz in the run-up to

the talks. In contrast, Jilani said that he had absolutely

no hope of a Siachen solution in the near term, even though

Islamabad and New Delhi have already sketched the outlines of

a deal. Jilani pointed to strong opposition to a Siachen

resolution amongst the Indian military and defense

establishment as the barrier to a resolution, a hurdle that

PM Manmohan Singh had raised in his Havana meeting with

President Musharraf in mid-September. Singh had told

Musharraf that his military advisors are apprehensive that

Pakistan would re-occupy the heights -- including Indian

posts -- were the sides to withdraw from their current lines.

Musharraf offered his personal assurance that Pakistan would

honor a withdrawal agreement, saying that it would be

foolish to withdraw only to return, particularly as moving

forward to the Indian posts would leave Pakistani units with

a mountain at their backs, cut off from their supply lines.

Citing a recent book by retired Indian General V.P. Malik --

like Musharraf, a veteran of the Kargil crisis -- Jilani said

that Musharraf's guarantees would not carry any weight for

Singh; the PM would have to have the Indian Army with him to

cut a deal.



3. (C) Jilani was more optimistic on other topics on the

Composite Dialogue agenda, calling resolution of the Sir

Creek dispute "doable," as it lacks the strategic importance

of Siachen; also, both sides are under pressure to resolve

the issue before the 2009 deadline of the UN Convention on

the Law of the Seas. An interagency session later in the day

would review new proposals the GOP could take to New Delhi to

advance a Sir Creek resolution. He said that he has advised

the Indian High Commission that the GOP is ready to sign an

agreement on notification of nuclear accidents, a pact that

had been passed between capitals several times. An agreement

on the modalities for monthly flag meetings of Army sector

commanders, to complement the current quarterly flag meetings

of the Pakistan Rangers and Indian Border Security Forces, is

also within reach. Jilani also identified agreements to

prevent incidents on the high seas and to speed the return of

persons who inadvertently cross the international border as

possible deliverables at the Foreign Secretaries' meeting.

On the other hand, Jilani described issues relating to

Kashmir as within the exclusive confines of the back-channel

dialogue between NSA Tariq Aziz and retired Indian diplomat

S. K. Lamba.



4. (C) Jilani also expects progress on a mechanism for

bilateral counter-terrorism cooperation. He said that the

two sides have agreed that the respective Foreign Offices

will chair the mechanism, which will include representatives

from security and intelligence agencies. Recognizing how

uncomfortable the intelligence agencies were at the prospect



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of sitting down with their long-time rivals, Jilani said he

used the margins of the Havana meeting to stress to Indian

Foreign Secretary-designate Menon that the mechanism should

begin its work with items that were workable, in order to

build confidence amongst the ISI and RAW representatives. An

Indian request that the GOP investigate Pakistani suspects in

the Mumbai bombing who have been captured on intercepts would

fall into realm of the possible, in Jilani's estimation;

demanding the immediate extradition of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen

leader Syed Salahuddin would not. Jilani acknowledged that

the Indian side might have higher expectations, but

maintained that it was critical to build trust between the

intelligence agencies for the mechanism to succeed.



5. (C) The GOP will also raise several practical matters

affecting the efficacy of previously adopted

confidence-building measures (CBMs). For example, Jilani

noted the low levels of passengers on the Amritsar - Narakana

Sahib bus route, which often transports only 2-3 passengers

per run. The low passenger load led the sides to shelve

plans for a train route originally intended to facilitate the

travel of Sikh pilgrims to Guru Nana's birthplace shrine.

Diplomats from the Pakistani High Commission have

investigated why so many Sikh travelers, having been issued

Pakistani visas, failed to actually make the pilgrimage;

according to Jilani, the Sikhs reported that they had been

denied clearance by local police authorities for travel to

Pakistan.



6. (C) Noting that the Foreign Secretaries will confer on a

convenient date for a Ministerial to conclude this round of

the Composite Dialogue, Jilani confirmed that FM Kasuri

intends to travel to India in late November at the invitation

of his Cambridge classmate Mani Shankar Ayer, and that he

hoped to combine the visit with a call on India's new

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukerjee. In the interim,

Islamabad will welcome India's new High Commissioner this

week, and expects to have its new envoy in place in New Delhi

by the end of November.



7. (C) Comment: When asked for the MFA's reaction to

Mukerjee's appointment, Jilani paused before offering his

assessment of Mukerjee's predecessors, praising Jaswant Singh

as an outstanding diplomat and voicing respect for the

pragmatism of Yashwant Sinha and political skills of Natwar

Singh. Unfortunately, Jilani concluded, Mukerjee is simply

not in the same class. Jilani also suggested that, during

the bilateral meeting in Havana, Indian diplomats appeared

almost sheepish about the pause in diplomatic exchanges

following the July Mumbai bombings. Jilani shrugged,

explaining that Pakistani officials understood that domestic

political considerations necessitated the time-out after the

terrorist attack. When PolCouns noted Emb New Delhi's

accounts of widespread Indian belief that Pakistan was behind

the plot, Jilani was quick to emphasize that FS Menon had

been clear in stating that India had not accused Pakistan of

complicity in the bombing, and that even as tough a

hard-liner as NSA Narayanan had admitted there was no

"clinching" evidence of GOP involvement. End comment.

CROCKER