INTERIOR MINISTER DISCUSSES BORDER AREA SECURITY,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 021222

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: MOPS PK PREL PTER
SUBJECT: INTERIOR MINISTER DISCUSSES BORDER AREA SECURITY,
NWA JIRGA AGREEMENT AND PENDING ACTION AGAINST LET LEADER

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Summary and Introduction: In an October 26
meeting with the Ambassador, Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao
offered a candid assessment of the security situation in
Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA),
sharing his private assessment that vigorous Government of
Pakistan (GOP) action is necessary to prevent Taliban and
extremist forces from filling a post-jirga political- and
security-vacuum in North Waziristan Agency (NWA). Noting
that the jirga agreement had been blown out of proportion,
the Minister called for Pakistani security forces taking a
swift, firm action against tribesmen and militants who
violate its terms. Sherpao recounted, in some detail,
Ministry of Interior (MOI) implementation of directives that
emerged from a mid-October policy assessment meeting with
President Musharraf Successful implementation of this Border
Control Exercise -- designed to channel cross-border traffic
to a handful of crossing points equipped with modern
immigration and customs technologies -- in Balochistan will
be followed by similar program in North West Frontier
Province (NWFP),including the Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA). The Minister's description of the Border
Control Exercise tracked with policy shifts that the Director
General - Inter-Services Intelligence (DG ISI) flagged for
Ambassador the previous week, while his assessment of the
security situation in Balochistan and NWFP -- including
reports of a nascent NWA-type agreement in Bajaur Agency --
was echoed by Presidential Chief of Staff Hamid Javaid in an
October 30 conversation with the Ambassador. End summary and
introduction.

What's the View from the Potomac?
--------------

2. (C) Sherpao opened by asking for an assessment of
President Musharraf's visit to Washington and the
Ambassador's own consultations in the U.S. The Ambassador
noted the broad interagency interest in the tribal belt along
the Pak-Afghan border, particularly vis-a-vis the
re-ermergence of the Taliban in southern Afghanistan. Many
in WashDC understand that there is no quick fix to security
challenges that were decades in the making, the Ambassador
said, a message that President Musharraf was able to
underscore during his meetings with Administration officials.
The President's thorough explanation of the GOP multi-tiered
FATA strategy, supplemented by the Ambassador's private
discussions of directives by MOI and ISI to all Pakistani
security forces to act vigorously against the Taliban in all
venues, demonstrated that Pakistan's counter-insurgency
strategy is moving in the right direction. The USG is
seriously examining how best the U.S. can support GOP
long-term initiatives for social and economic development in
the FATA, as well as assistance to enhance the
counter-insurgency capacities of the Frontier Corps (FC).


3. (C) That said, the Ambassador underscored the deep
concern in WashDC regarding the Taliban insurgency and the
security situation in the FATA and Balochistan, as the U.S.
is seeing continued high levels of cross border activity
targeting Coalition and Afghan forces. Equally worrying are
media reports that, following the September 5th jirga
agreement, the Taliban has filled a political vacuum in NWA,
establishing offices, operating security checkpoints and
asserting control over local populations. The Minister
nodded in agreement, saying that the situation was
reminiscent of South Waziristan Agency (SWA),which he
admitted has been under Taliban control since a 2004
agreement ended GOP security operations against local
militants.

Border Management Exercise in Balochistan
--------------

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4. (C) Sherpao described how President Musharraf has
convened his convened security advisors in mid-October to
design tougher approach along the Pak-Afghan border. The
President's brain trust produced a strategy to enhance border
security, beginning at the Chaman border crossing in
Balochistan. The plan synthesizes tighter immigration and
customs regulation of human and vehicular traffic at Chaman,
where an estimated 30,000 people and 1000 vehicles cross
to/from Afghanistan. Border-crossing cards will be issued to
tribal members in the region, which must be swiped when
crossing into/out of Pakistan. All vehicles, commercial and
personal, will be subject to documented Customs inspections
and tracked to identify patterns. Sherpao said that the MOI
has built pre-fabricated shelters to protect new immigration
and customs tracking equipment being delivered to implement
the new procedures. Three additional border crossing points
have been identified to follow the same procedures as Chaman,
with the MOI examining 4-5 more to add to the program. When
all are 7-8 are in operation, the GOP will close the
remaining 25 existing legal crossing points, as well as 150
known illegal crossings, using a variety of methods --
including fencing, mining and security monitoring -- to make
sure that cross-border traffic is channeled into areas with
enhanced security procedures. (Comment: In an earlier
conversation, DG ISI offered a similar description of the
strategy to emerge following the meeting with President
Musharraf -- but with the caveat that many of the President's
prescriptions, such as mining the areas around the 175-plus
closed crossing points, were simply not feasible. In his
meeting with Sherpao, the Ambassador cautioned that, although
the USG has no objection to well-deployed minefields, the GOP
must be committed to 24/7 monitoring of any mined area in
order to prevent ACMs from stealing the mines and using them
against GOP and Coalition forces. End comment.) The same
approach will be employed in the FATA and NWFP, following
successful implementation in Balochistan.


5. (C) Sherpao reviewed the success of the GOP's targeting
of Afghans in Balochistan engaged in the insurgency. The
MOI has raided hospitals in Quetta in an effort designed to
deny aid and comfort to wounded anti-Coalition militants.
Hospital administrators and staff are under compulsion to
advise the authorities of young men, particularly Afghans,
seeking treatment for wounds associated with combat
operations. Dovetailing with the issuance of new
registration/identification cards to Afghan refugees, police
and other security agencies have been instructed to adopt a
"no tolerance" approach when they encounter young Afghan me
loitering in public places: if the Afghans are hanging about
without proper documents, they will be swiftly repatriated
across the border. (Note: Post forwarded a list passed by
DG ISI to Ambassador identifying Afghans caught up in these
Balochistan security operations; see TDX-315/75811-06. End
note). Sherpao described these efforts as initial steps
before the GOP confronts the critical challenge of the Girdi
Jungle and Pir Ali Afghan refugee camps. FC units are
currently staffing checkpoints to monitor traffic in and out
of the camps, but in the Minister's assessment, "the camps
have to go." Sherpao indicated that these new immigration
and customs procedures have been outlined to Afghan
Ambassador Tarzi, but that the strategy targeting hospitals
and undocumented Afghans has not. (Note: In a October 30
meeting, Presidential Chief of Staff Hamid Javaid echoed
Sherpao's assessment, telling the Ambassador that, although
GOP raids between October 27-29 had nabbed another dozen
Afghan militants, the GOP cannot defeat this enemy so long as
the camps remain open. Jvaid said that President Musharraf
is seized of this issue. End note.)

South Waziristan Deja Vu
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6. (S/NF) Turning to NWA, Sherpao described the jirga
agreement as having been blown out of proportion by the
media. The jirga agreement was never intended to be a a
quick fix, he said. Even within these parameters, however,
Sherpao agreed with the Ambassador's assessment that the
Taliban has rushed in to fill a political void. The Minister
pointed to clear instructions from the President that
tribesmen must adhere to the agreement's injunctions against
parallel administration and the spread of Talibanization,
including orders to close Taliban offices that had opened in
Miran Shah, before admitting that he could not contradict
press accounts of a very different reality on the ground.
The GOP is aware that ACMs formerly in NWA are on the move,
crossing into Afghanistan from other FATA agencies, a
practice that must stop. For the jirga agreement to succeed,
Sherpao said, the government and tribal leaders must have a
common understanding of the respective obligations, coupled
with quick GOP reaction to infractions that threaten
security. Sherpao admitted that serious threats are
emanating from NWA , noting that the car bomb used in the
March 3rd bombing of the U.S. Consulate had been wired and
then driven from NWA to Karachi and that the missiles
recovered in the October 2006 Rawalpindi/Islamabad plot
targeting President Musharraf's camp office, the Parliament
and other GOP offices also originated in NWA. Saying that
Pakistan cannot afford another SWA situation, Sherpao
concluded by noting that GOP security agencies are preparing
an assessment of the jirga agreement to present to President
Musharraf in late October/early November.

Is Bajaur Next?
--------------


7. (S/NF) The Ambassador told Sherpao that he has shared
serious USG concerns wtih DG ISI and President Mushrraf's
Chief of Staff Hamid Javaid over reports that Pakistani
authorities had released several militant detainees in Bajaur
agency, including some associated with Tehrik-Nifaz-i
Shariat-i Mohammadi (TNSM - Movement for the Enforcement of
Mohammad's Sharia ). These reports are particularly
troubling, as TNSM leader Maulana Faqir Mohammad is a
declared enemy of both the GOP and the U.S. During his
WashDC visit, President Musharraf recognized the nexus
between al Qaeda and the TNSM militants in Bajaur, suggesting
that this unholy alliance made the agency a logical choice
for al Qaeda senior leaders seeking refuge. Sherpao noted
the Ambassador's points, saying that the situation in Bajaur
would also be on the agenda when the security agencies
briefed the President. (Note: Mission will report septel on
the Bajaur jirga, held October 28, followed by a massive
anti-American rally on October 29 and October 30 security
operations targeting a TNSM madrassa, in which 70-80
militants were killed. End note.)

Strong Action after Eid
--------------


8. (S) Sherpao confirmed that the GOP plans a series of
forceful actions following the Eid-al-Fitr holiday, plans
initially briefed to the Ambassador by DG ISI. This includes
the sacking of police chiefs in all four provinces, a step DG
ISI explained as necessary because "the Taliban is
everywhere" and current police leadership has not proven up
to the task of confronting this nationwide threat. Sherpao
told Ambassador that he has decided against any change in the
two FC Inspector Generals (the Corps' highest ranking
officers) at the this time. The Ambassador advised both
Sherpao and DG ISI that the GOP should be sure to provide an
explanation of these actions to the Pakistani public,
emphasizing that sacking the police chiefs is a principled
decision necessary to defend against the extremist threat to

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the nation. The Ambassador stressed that the public should
also be told that the police and other security officials
have been empowered to act against Taliban and other
extremist militants wherever they are encountered. Such a
message would make clear to Pakistani people that these
actions serve the public interest and safety, while signaling
to the international community the government's commitment to
confront violent extremism; an early and well-crafted public
statement would also be an effective response to the negative
assessment of Pakistan's commitment to the GWOT in the
international press.

LeT Amir Hafiz Mohamad Saeed
--------------


9. (S/NF) Turning to another perennial figure in Pakistan's
campaign against extremism, Sherpao previewed GOP plans to
re-arrest the leader of Lashkar-e-Tayyba/Jamaat ud-Dawa
(LeT/JuD),Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, after Eid. This time,
Sherpao said, the charges will be under the Security of
Pakistan Act (SOPA). The decision to proceed under the SOPA
was taken following consultations with the Attorney General,
following the embarrassing ruling by a Lahore High Court
judge granting Saeed's petition for release after finding
that provincial prosecutors had ordered his detention in bad
faith. A charge under the SOPA will permit authorities to
detain Saeed for 30 days, with an extension to 90 days if
approved by a panel of two Pakistan Supreme Court and one
provincial High Court judges; the detention order must
thereafter be reviewed at 90-day intervals. The Ambassador
welcomed this news and encouraged the GOP to extend the
strategy to the rest of LeT/JuD's senior leadership, whose
actions have expanded from attacks against India to direct
support for the insurgency in Afghanistan.



CROCKER