BALOCHISTAN: UNQUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 019193



SIPDIS



NOFORN

SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016

TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, PK

SUBJECT: BALOCHISTAN: UNQUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT



REF: A. ISLAMABAD 17875 AND PREVIOUS

B. ISLAMABAD 16962

C. ISLAMABAD 18929



Classified By: CDA Peter Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b) and(d).



1. SUMMARY: (C) Four weeks after the event, the death of

Nawab Bugti has become a rallying point for the Baloch rights

movement, which is shifting from "fair treatment within

Pakistan" rhetoric to talk of independence. Protests and

attacks against symbols of the central government continue,

as does political organization by Baloch nationalists. The

first grand jirga of the Baloch in over a century condemned

the Bugti's death and the way the central government has

shortchanged the province. Army plans to establish new

cantonments and the continued persecution, even

disappearance, of those the government labels "terrorists"

are not helping to calm the situation. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) Balochistan is entering another cycle of protest

against Punjabi immigrants, the Army and central rule. For

the fourth time since Pakistan's independence, "nationalists"

in the province are engaged in attacks on symbols of their

"colonial status" in Pakistan. The Army's aggressive role in

the August 26 death and subsequent burial of Nawab Bugti, one

of the major "sardars" (tribal lords) of the Baloch (ref A)

have given Baloch nationalists a potent icon.



3. (C) The government appears of two minds, political and

military, in dealing with the rising tide of Baloch

nationalism. Politicians such as Senator Mushahid Hussain

Syed (Secretary General of the PML-Q) and Senate Chairman

Mohammedmian Soomro call for conciliation and programs to

give the Baloch a leg up in the development of the province.

In late September, President Musharraf and Prime Minister

Shaukat Aziz seperately announced development projects for

the districts of Dera Bugti and Kohlu alone totaling over USD

400 million. At the same time, a growing Army presence in

Sui, Dera Bugti and Kohlu is enforcing a hardline "writ of

the state." There is also talk of building new cantonments

to bring more parts of the province under the Army's control.



Grand Jirga Trumps Tribal Jirga

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4. (U) On September 21, the Khan of Kalat, the traditional

hereditary leader of most Baloch tribes, presided over a

grand jirga (conclave) of 85 tribal chiefs and several

hundred elders. The grand jirga was in response to a

government-managed Bugti tribal jirga held two days before

the August 26 death of Nawab Bugti, in which pro-goverment

Bugti tribesmen declared the demise of the sardari (tribal

lord) system in the Bugti tribal area. It declared Nawab

Bugti's heirs the legitimate owners of his property, a direct

challenge to the Army, which, according to contacts in

Quetta, continues to distribute parcels of the Nawab's lands

to his tribal opponents. The jirga called upon the

International Human Rights Commission to investigate Bugti's

death.



5. (C) The Khan's grand jirga registered a province-wide

protest against the way the government had dealt with the

Nawab Bugti. The overarching reason for holding

Balochistan,s first grand jirga in over one hundred years

was to vent Baloch outrage over "colonial occupation" of

their land by Punjabi immigrants (estimated to number

400,000) and the Punjabi-dominated Army. The jirga also

rejected GOP-planned mega-projects, such as the Gwadar port

scheme which many Baloch say benefit only outsiders. In a

gesture designed more for publicity than effect, the jirga

also called for the International Court of Justice to

investigate government violation of the agreement signed by

the state of Kalat, the British crown and the government of

Pakistan concerning the rights of the Baloch people. A

Quetta-based contact in attendance reported that in this

referral to the ICJ was also an attempt by the jirga to

placate many in the audience who wanted to declare



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independence from Pakistan.



6. (C) The grand jirga characterized on-going military

operations (raids, arrests, "disappearances," heavy handed

responses to nationalist sabotage of infrastructure) as

"state terrorism" and called for the release of political

workers held in custody. The degree of Baloch disenchantment

with the central government, and the potential for further

discord, was underlined by a former Chief Minister of

Balochistan, Nawab Zulfiqar Ali Magsi, who noted that once

"we had taken oath as governors, chief ministers and

ministers on the Constitution that we are now opposing."



Reports of Disappearances

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7. (C) The call for the release of "political workers" in

GOP custody gives voice to a growing complaint in Balochistan

and neighboring Sindh. Human Rights Watch and the Asian

Human Rights Commission have noted that both provinces are

experiencing a growing number of "disappearances." Posts has

read reports of the disappearance of political activists,

their family members and others deemed "problematic" by the

police, army or other agencies. In both provinces, the bulk

of those "missing" appear to be ethnic Baloch. Human Rights

Watch and journalists report that families are being left in

the dark regarding the fate of the missing. (Note: HRW and

other contacts advise post that GOP security agencies often

quietly send word to the family of a missing person that

their loved one is in custody -- a courtesy not/not now being

extended to the families of missing Baloch. End note.) The

government denies complicity in most of these disappearances

and has been quick to characterize those who protest for

provincial rights as supporting "terrorism." (Ref C).



8. (C) Comment: The Khan of Kalat's jirga represents, for

the first time in recent history, a large number of tribal

elders who are voicing sentiments usually articulated by

groups such as the Baloch Student Organization and more

actively militant nationalists. Unanswered questions

regarding Nawab Bugti's death at the hands of the Army, hard

line rhetoric about extending "the writ of the state," and

continued disappearance of those who fall afoul of the

authorities do nothing to placate the animosity against the

federal government. Balochistan's isolation and alienation

from the center still must be addressed. End comment.



10. (U) Consulate Karachi contributed to this report.

CROCKER