NORTH WAZIRISTAN PEACE ACCORD ANNOUNCED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 017766 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016 TAGS: MARR MOPS PGOV PINR PK PTER SUBJECT: NORTH WAZIRISTAN PEACE ACCORD ANNOUNCED REF: A. ISLAMABAD 14209 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 13677 ¶C. ISLAMABAD 15543 Classified By: CDA Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On September 5, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) and local tribal leaders announced that the 45-member Grand Jirga for North Waziristan Agency (NWA) had a peace agreement with the GOP. (Note: Consulate Peshawar has obtained a copy of the agreement and has translated the Urdu text, which post will forward to SCA/PB. End note.) The compromise is characterized by concrete measures to ensure the compliance of tribal militants with GOP red-lines and government acknowledgment of tribal customs and privileges. NWA tribes pledged to live peacefully, to cease cross-border military infiltration into Afghanistan and to respect the GOP's political administration. In return, the government will cease on-going military operations; it has already released 150-some prisoners and begun to vacate check-posts previously manned by Pakistani military. ¶2. (SBU) The agreement reached between the government and the jirga, which had begun deliberations on July 20 and had twice extended a cease-fire with tribal militants (Ref A, B), applies only to NWA. The document's heading declares that it is a "peace agreement between the Political Agent of NWA (serving as representative of the Governor of North West Frontier Province and the GOP),the tribal elders of NWA, local "Mujahidin," students and religious scholars of the Utmanzai tribe." Key provisions of the agreement include the following provisions: - The Utmanzai tribes agrees: -- Not to attack law enforcement agencies and/or government property, or to target GOP officials, security officials or pro-government tribal elders or journalists; -- To refrain from forming a parallel administration; tribal members will respect the (GOP) political administration and will resolve disputes according to the Frontier Crime Regulations (FCR) and local traditions, in consultation with tribal elders and students of Utmanzai; -- Not to allow cross-border movement for the purposes of military operations in Afghanistan. (Note: Cross-border movement will be permitted for trade and family visits. End note.); -- No infiltration into areas adjacent to NWA (e.g., the Frontier Regions or settled areas of NWFP); and -- Foreigners in NWA will leave the area; those who are unable to leave must live peacefully and obey the laws of the land, including the provisions of this agreement. - The GOP agrees to: -- Release all arrested militants, who will not be subject to arrest for past incidents; -- Restore all tribal perks and privileges; -- Dismantle all new check posts; old check posts will be staffed by tribal Khassadar forces. (Note: The Khassadars are a loosely-organized security force, answerable to the Political Agent, often used to guard government facilities. End note.) -- Return all seized weaponry and vehicles; -- Cease military operations in the region and resolve disputes according to local custom; -- Pay compensation for losses to life and property damaged in government security operations; -- Not restrict tribesmen from keeping weapons consistent with tribal customs. ¶3. (U) The agreement provides for the formation of a 10-member committee comprising tribal elders who will be tasked to: -- Maintain open lines of communication between the GOP and ISLAMABAD 00017766 002 OF 003 tribes; -- Insure implementation of the agreement; -- Serve as a point-of-contact in emergencies, to prevent crises from developing; -- Act against those who do not abide by the agreement. ¶4. (C) According to press reports, the GOP implementation of its commitment in the agreement is already well underway. The government has released most militant detainees. Local press reports that the army has already evacuated check-points on the Bannu-Miranshah, Miranshah-Ghulam Khan, Miranshah-Razmak, and Miransha-Dattakhel roads, as well as posts in southwest NWA in the Shawal Valley near the Afghanistan border and along the border between NWA and South Waziristan. The GOP has also released seized assets and is preparing to pay compensation to tribal members who suffered personal or property damage during security operations -- even if the property involved was being used by the militants against GOP forces. ¶5. (C) Some provisions in the agreement clearly bear the mark of compromise. For example, going into the negotiations, the government said it would demand the expulsion of all foreigners in NWA (Ref C). The GOP later walked this demand back to requiring all foreigners to register. In the end, the issue of foreigners in NWA is now essentially left to the NWA tribes, who are now guarantors that the foreigners do not participate in unlawful or subversive activity. Tribal members are permitted to retain their weapons according to their customs, but cultural norms treat RPGs as "small arms." An interesting side note is that the agreement is between the government and "Utmanzi tribe," rather than the tribes of NWA. Although the vast majority of Wazir tribesmen in NWA belong to the Utmanzai tribe, non-Wazir tribes also live in NWA. For example, Maulana Sadiq Noor and Maulana Abdul Khaliq, two NWA militant religious leaders, are not Wazirs; they belong to the Daur tribe. ¶6. (C) Comment: While welcoming the jirga agreement as a first step toward ending the violence that has plagued NWA over the past year, many observers are skeptical that the NWA jirga agreement will effectively reduce cross-border attacks on Coalition and Afghan forces or halt the spread of Islamism in the long term. Post's NWA contacts noted that anti-coalition militants have changed their tactics in the past; the agreement to stop cross-border infiltration into Afghanistan from NWA may simply shift the locus of militant operations to other FATA regions. Other commentators observed that the militants walked away from the jirga pocketing all of their demands. Others suggested that the jirga agreement would be viewed as victory by the militants' supporters, enhancing their ability to spread their Islamic ideology. In contrast, although the GOP achieved key aims: an end to attacks on government officials and sympathizers, cessation of cross-border and inter-FATA activity),it was forced to compromise on others. ¶7. (C) Comment (cont): The fact that the GOP elected to negotiate with the tribal militants can alternatively be interpreted as either a telling sign of how weak the government's position in NWA had become or a mark of Governor Orakzai and the federal government's determination to restore sufficient stability in the agency to allow the GOP to proceed with its long-term strategy of political reform, economic investment and social development for NWA and the rest of the FATA. As noted in earlier reporting (Ref C), this jirga was not convened as the tool to fix the GOP's FATA problem -- it was convened to resolve discrete, immediate issues to allow the government and NWA sufficient space to restore law-and- order and create an environment conducive to further negotiation. Similarly, the well-documented process leading to this agreement places the GOP in a good position if it is forced to resume military operations in the future. Judged against this standard, the GOP might well congratulate itself on a successful outscome. In coming days, post will ISLAMABAD 00017766 003 OF 003 poll the GOP's FATA team to gauge its assessment of the jirga agreement. End comment. BODDE