JIRGA CALLED TO NEGOTIATE PEACE IN WAZIRISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 013677 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015 TAGS: PK PREL PGOV SUBJECT: JIRGA CALLED TO NEGOTIATE PEACE IN WAZIRISTAN ISLAMABAD 00013677 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, DSCG 05-01, January 2005, Edition 1, Reason: 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. NWFP Governor Jan Mohammad Orakzai on July 16 announced the convening of a 45 member grand jirga to bring peace to Waziristan (and FATA at-large). The jirga of FATA notables--comprised of MNAs, Senators and mostly JUI-F local politicians from 6 of the 7 agencies--will be tasked with negotiating with militants on behalf of GOP and will set conditions for peace. (South Waziristan tribal reps have largely been left out for prior bad faith in negotiations). The jirga will begin work immediately, while the GOP concurrently makes good on some conditions--such as the release of imprisoned SW and NW militants--reportedly agreed upon during back-channel meetings. GOP expects the militants to extend their ceasefire as a show of good faith for the negotiations. End summary. JIRGA CONVENED -------------- ¶2. (C) FATA Secretariat officials on July 12 outlined for reporters a general sketch of a grand jirga (gathering of tribal elders) to be held to stem the tide of militant attacks in North Waziristan. Officials have been reluctant to release details on the mandate and composition of the jirga to the public, but sources in the FATA Secretariat and the press indicated to Poloffs that the 45 member jirga will be comprised of representatives from each agency and Frontier Region. (South Waziristan representation will be limited because GOP officials say the interlocutors are untrustworthy.) Politicians tapped for the jirga are largely affiliated with Jamaat-e Ulema-e Islam Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F). (Note: The heavy weight given to JUI-F reflects the representation of the JUI-F within the pool of Members of the National Assembly (MNA),Senators, and local leaders from which the jirga will be culled. JUI-F has also been strongly opposed to the growing presence of local Taliban in FATA. End Note.) MNA Maulana Nek Zaman (North Waziristan),Abdur Rehman (President of the JUI-F in North Waziristan),Senator Mateen Shah (SWA),and Maulana Mohammad Alim are among the notables reportedly chosen for the jirga. ¶3. (C) Press and FATA Secretariat contacts indicate that Governor Orakzai and his military counterparts have tasked the chosen jirga to meet with representatives in Waziristan as well as the Frontier Regions. They are expected to negotiate with tribals and militants to: --Set the overall conditions for peace; --Stop the attacks against FC and Military posts and personnel; --Gain assurances that militants won't disrupt development activities; --Stymie the militant propaganda campaign against GOP; and --Stop the display of weapons in major market areas. (Note: As we have reported separately, the GOP has been clear that harboring foreigners and cross-border infiltration are non-negotiable conditions. End note.) CO-OPTING SOUTH WAZIRISTAN -------------- ¶4. (C) South Waziristan representatives are unlikely to be a part of the larger jirga because Orakzai reportedly does not trust the representatives who negotiated with GOP in 2004 and subsequently broke the agreement. They are, however, trying to build up trust in back-channel negotiatins with some South Waziristan militants from the Wazir tribe responsible for IED attacks against convoys in the Shakai Valley in December and March 2006. The militants said they had launched the attacks to protest the detention of militants in SW. After protracted negotiations, GOP officials released at least two SW militants (Ida Khan and Dawar Khan) as part of a settlement agreement designed to elicit cooperation from local taliban leader Maulvi Mohammad Omar. ISLAMABAD 00013677 002.2 OF 002 COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Governor Orakzai's reliance on tribal customs and quiet back-channel negotiations has reportedly made some progress. Journalists indicate that the Governor's insistence to the military that the cease-fire be upheld from the GOP side despite continued suicide bomb attacks in late June is the reason militants continue to negotiate with GOP representatives. We have assurances from the highest levels of the government that no cross-border militancy will be tolerated while the jirga is underway. We will be watching closely to see how this is observed. CROCKER