SNAPSHOT OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN AJK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 010746 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: IN PK PREL SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN AJK ¶1. Summary: In July, voters in Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) will elect a new President, Prime Minister (PM),and legislative assembly (AJKLA). Since 1975, elections in AJK have been regular and relatively fair. The position of AJK President and Prime Minister has traditionally been held by two parties, the Muslim Conference (MC) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP-AJK). This cable provides a snapshot of the AJK electoral process, provides a brief history of elections, and gives a sketch of major political parties in AJK. Paras 12 and 13 contain Post's comment on the upcoming elections. End summary. -------------- KASHMIRI ELECTIONS AND ELECTORAL TIMELINE -------------- ¶2. July elections will be held for a new AJK President, Prime Minister, and legislative assembly. The legislative assembly is a body comprised of forty-nine seats. Forty-one legislators are directly elected, and out of these forty-one, there is a quota of twelve seats for Kashmiri refugees living in Pakistan. After the legislative assembly is elected, eight more seats will be indirectly elected. The eight seats are broken down into five seats for women, one for an Islamic scholar, one for a technocrat, and one to represent Kashmiris residing overseas. Elections will be held on July 11. The deadline to file candidate nomination papers will expire on June 2. ¶3. The AJK legislative assembly addresses local economic, infrastructure, and social issues. Decisions on the broader issue of Kashmir's status are formulated by the Islamabad-based Kashmir Council. The Pakistani Prime Minister sits as the chairman of the Council; the AJK President is the vice-chairman. The Council consists of nine members, five of whom are appointed by the Pakistani Prime Minister, and four who are selected by the AJK legislative assembly. The new Kashmir Council will be assembled soon after the July elections, once the AJK leadership and legislative assembly is in place. -------------- HISTORY OF ELECTIONS IN AJK -------------- ¶4. Elections in AJK were first held in 1975, after Pakistani PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto established a branch of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) AJK. His intent was to weaken the influence of Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan, who Bhutto eventually put under house arrest. With Sardar Qayyum out of the picture, Abdul Hameed Khan was elected as the first PM of AJK in 1975. When General Zia ul-Haq imposed martial law in Pakistan in 1977, the AJK Legislative Assembly was dissolved and General Hayat Khan was appointed as the Chief Executive. Hayat served until elections were held in 1985, when Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan was elected the President and Sardar Sikandar Hayat was chosen as the Prime Minister. ¶5. Two major political parties, Muslim Conference (MC) and the Pakistan People's Party-AJK (PPP-AJK) have taken turns holding the majority of seats in the legislative assembly as well as the positions of prime minister and president. MC led the government from 1985-90, and the PPP-AJK took over in ¶1990. MC again took the lead in the 1991 elections and ruled until 1996. PPP-AJK returned to power in 1996 until the MC regained the majority in 2001. -------------- MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES -------------- ¶6. MUSLIM CONFERENCE (MC): Founded in 1932, MC is the oldest political party in AJK. Sardar Abdul Qayyum -- also known as Mujahid-e-Awal "the first holy warrior," as he is believed to have fired the first bullet in the 1947 war of liberation to ISLAMABAD 00010746 002 OF 003 establish AJK -- has headed the party since 1967. (Now his son, Sardar Attique Khan, heads the party.) In 1998, Qayyum's differences with another powerful leader of MC, Sardar Sikandar Hayat, led to a temporary split in the MC. Before the 2001 elections, both MC leaders merged their factions to counter the PPP-AJK and won the elections. Sikandar was to serve as the PM for two and a half years before being succeeded by Sardar Attique Khan, who was PM for the remaining two and a half years. When his term expired, Sikander refused to step down, putting a strain on party unity. MC's manifesto supports Kashmir's annexation to Pakistan. They support the right to struggle against Indian occupation of Kashmir, though MC has never been associated with any militant group, nor is there evidence that it has offered material support to the militancy. MC supports the peace process with India, urging the Indian government to reduce the number of troops in Indian-administered Kashmir on its side of the LOC. After the October 2005 earthquake, MC was criticized for its lack of response in the quake-hit areas. Public support for MC has declined, but its historical influence will help win seats in the entire AKJ region this summer. Recently, several MC legislative assembly members were denied party tickets to participate in the July elections and as a result, they have decided to form a separate faction. ¶7. PAKISTAN PEOPLE'S PARTY AJK (PPP-AJK): Barrister Sultan of the PPP-AJK was elected as PM in 1996. In 2001, he returned to his position of PPP-AJK party president, posturing himself as the leader of the opposition against the MC. Sultan was replaced by Sahibzada Ishaq Zafar in 2004. Tension between Ishaq and Barrister increased during the February 2006 party elections when Barrister did not support the party-nominated candidate. (Note: This violation of party policy led to Barrister's expulsion from the party. In April 2006, Barrister founded his own political party: Jammu Kashmir People's Muslim League. End note.) PPP-AJK has never supported militant groups in Indian-administered Kashmir, though they support the right of Kashmiris to resist Indian occupation. At the same time, they endorse the peace process with India. After the earthquake, PPP-AJK's poor relief activities were criticized, especially in the districts of Rawalakot and Muzaffarabad. ¶8. AJK People's Muslim League (AJK-PML): Opposition leader Barrister Sultan formed this party in April 2006 after his disputes with AJK-PPP leader Sahibzada Ishaq Zafar. His party has a strong presence in the three districts of Mirpur, Bhimber, and Kotli. He also has a following in the adjoining areas of Jhelum, Gujrat, and Sialkot. Many local leaders of MC and AJK-PPP, who were not endorsed by their parties for the upcoming elections, have recently joined AJK-PML. AJK-PML does not support militant groups and encourages the ongoing Indo-Pak peace process. ¶9. JAMMU KASHMIR PEOPLE'S PARTY (JKPP): Headed by Sardar Khalid Ibrahim Khan, the JKPP came into being as a splinter group of the PPP-AJK in 1990. It enjoys strong support in the Rawalakot and Kotli districts. Khalid recently met with PPP leader Benazir Bhutto, and there are reports that the JKPP has since formed an alliance with the PPP-AJK. ¶10. AJK MUTIHIDDA MAJLAS-E-AMAL (MMA): Established as an offshoot of the national MMA party, this political alliance was formed in March 2006. Comprised of six religious and political parties, the MMA is lead by Sardar Ejaz Afzal Khan, who is also President of AJK Jamaat-i-Islami (AJKJI). AJKJI has won public support from earthquake victims for their quick and sustained relief efforts. Their relief performance is likely to win them significant political support in the three worst hit districts -- Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot and Bagh. Despite the good public relations, however, AJKMMA is not going to win the majority of seats. The JI rallies and provides support to the militant cause in Indian-administered Kashmir, and has a cordial relationship with Hizbul ISLAMABAD 00010746 003 OF 003 Mujahideen (HM),a Kashmiri militant group. Their public support for the Indo-Pak peace process is driven by public pressure, but JI does not hide its stance that militant struggle is the sole solution to push the Indians out of "occupied Kashmir." ¶11. JAMMU KASHMIR LIBERATION FRONT (JKLF): Founded by Amanullah Khan in 1977, it was JKLF that started the Kashmiri militancy in 1988. The JKLF has three factions, each lead by Yasin Malik, Amanullah Khan, and Farooq Siddiqi. Once a potent political force, JKLF does not play much of an active role in AJK politics today, as its demand for Kashmiri independence clashes with the GOP's preference for eventual Pakistani control over all of Kashmir. JKLF supports the peace process between India and Pakistan, but rejects the idea of accession of Kashmir to either India or Pakistan. JKLF has not participated in previous legislative assembly elections, as every candidate is required sign an oath endorsing the idea of Kashmir,s accession to Pakistan. It is currently campaigning to get the oath requirement revoked so they can run in the July elections. ¶12. (SBU) Comment: The AJK government provides Pakistan-administered Kashmir a veneer of democracy and governance infrastructure; major decisions are made in Islamabad, including negotiations on Kashmir with India and earthquake reconstruction. The upcoming elections in AJK will assemble a legislative body and leadership who, because of the required oath to support Kashmir's accession to Pakistan, are likely to serve as a mouthpiece for Islamabad. ¶13. (SBU) Comment (cont): At the moment, there is a collaborative push from AJK-PPP, MC, MMA, and JKLF to have the oath requirement revoked. Without the oath, JKLF would be permitted to run on its platform of endorsing an independent, united Kashmir. The pressure to repeal the oath also hints at a collective push for more decisionmaking authority for the AJK government. Should Musharraf allow the oath to be scrapped, it would send a strong signal that he is willing to cede some authority to the AJK government. Regardless of his decision, Kashmir watchers believe the JKLF will not win many seats this summer. It is also thought that the July elections will not bring PPP-AJK back into power, but that the MC will continue to head the AJK government. End comment. BODDE