SURPRISING ELECTORAL SUCCESS FOR HONG KONG'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L HONG KONG 004704 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2031 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI CH HK SUBJECT: SURPRISING ELECTORAL SUCCESS FOR HONG KONG'S DEMOCRATS REF: A. HONG KONG 4690 ¶B. HONG KONG 4691 Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On December 10, pro-democracy candidates for Hong Kong's Chief Executive Election Committee (EC),which will select the next Chief Executive in March 2007, captured approximately 134 seats on the 800-member EC, potentially more than enough to enable Alan Leong, the pan-democratic candidate, to contest the election. The democrats did especially well in some of the professional subsectors, where their middle-class, professional supporters were most numerous and motivated. According to political commentator Allen Lee, incumbent Chief Executive Donald Tsang now will face a "real" opponent in the March election, a prospect that neither he nor the central government in Beijing had expected. End Summary. Surprising Result -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On December 10, approximately 220,000 Hong Kong voters were eligible to cast ballots for members of the 800-person EC, which will nominate candidates for and select the next Chief Executive in March 2007 (refs). Supporters of the pan-democratic candidate, Civic Party legislator Alan Leong, had hoped to reach the threshold of 100 EC seats necessary to contest the March election. In a surprisingly strong performance, the pan-democrats won 134 seats (including an estimated twenty members of Legco who have "ex officio" seats on the EC). Prior to the vote, most observers believed the democrats had a "good chance" of winning 100, but none had suggested they would do this well. ¶3. (SBU) Approximately 56,000 of the 220,000 registered and eligible voters cast votes. The rate of turnout for the election was just 27 percent, which while low compares favorably to the 19.5 percent recorded in July 2000. Overall, the pan-democrats fielded candidates in 164 races. Of this number, 27 were for district council slots for which the democrats had little if any expectation of success; in fact they did not win any of those contests. In the other 137 races that they contested, however, the democrats won 114, or 83 percent, a remarkable success rate. ¶4. (C) The democrats did especially well in some of the professional subsectors of the Second Sector. In the accountancy, education, engineering, health services, higher education, information technology, and legal subsectors, the pan-democrats won all 81 seats that they contested. They also captured 31 of the 40 seats in the social welfare subsector of the Third Sector; prior to the election, Legco social welfare representative Fernando Cheung of the Civic Party told us he hoped the pan-democrats would win "more than twenty." Finally, the democrats won one seat each in the architecture and medical subsectors. What Does It Mean? -------------- ¶5. (C) Local NPC delegate and political commentator Allen Lee, who before the election predicted that the pan-democrats would capture only 80-90 EC seats, told us on December 11 that he was "very surprised" at the outcome: Alan Leong was now a "real candidate." Lee attributed the results to skillful selection by the democrats of strong candidates in subsectors where their middle-class, professional supporters were most plentiful and highly motivated. These supporters, said Lee, strongly want to see a contested Chief Executive (CE) election as well as implementation of universal suffrage as soon as possible. With Leong now apparently able to force incumbent CE Donald Tsang to debate these and other issues, Lee predicted that Tsang now would have to answer the difficult questions that he otherwise could avoid. Lee opined that the central government in Beijing also would be unhappy with yesterday's outcome, and with the prospect of a contested election, but that, like CE Tsang, they would "have to handle it." Observers in Hong Kong will be watching closely for evidence that Beijing's concerns are reflected in increased pressure on pro-democracy electors to not nominate Leong. Cunningham