UNOFFICIAL MARCH 25 REFERENDUM TO ASSESS VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 004666

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2031
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL HK CH
SUBJECT: UNOFFICIAL MARCH 25 REFERENDUM TO ASSESS VIEWS ON
CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION AND UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE


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Classified By: E/P Chief Laurent Charbonnet. Reasons: 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Former legislator Cyd Ho, Co-Convenor of
"Project Civil Referendum", recently discussed her plans for
a large-scale unofficial referendum in Hong Kong on March 25,
2007 -- the same day as the Chief Executive (CE) election by
the 800-member CE Election Committee. Ho and the other
organizers hope to attract public participation in their
privately-sponsored, non-binding referendum on several key
issues, including the city's next CE, universal suffrage, and
minimum wage legislation. Ho is still working to line up
enough polling stations and funding for the referendum, but
is hopeful that it ultimately will give the Hong Kong public
an otherwise unavailable opportunity to voice its opinion on
the CE election. Criticism of the referendum from the
Government and Beijing thus far has been low-key, and Ho
hopes that this tolerance will enable Project Civil
Referendum to organize other referendums in the future. Ho
was not concerned that some referendum voters might select
Donald Tsang as their preferred CE candidate over Alan Leong;
even if that occurred, the referendum mechanism would promote
greater public participation in a democratic exercise. End
Summary.

Let's Ask the People
--------------


2. (C) Cyd Ho, Co-Convenor of Project Civil Referendum,
discussed with poloffs her work to organize a large-scale
unofficial referendum on March 25, 2007 -- the same day as
the Chief Executive (CE) election. Going beyond the
800-member CE Election Committee (septels),Ho and the other
referendum organizers hope to attract large-scale public
participation in their privately-sponsored, non-binding
referendum on a variety of political and economic issues
including: 1) Who do you support as the next CE? (And in
case there is only one CE candidate, voters will be asked to
cast a vote of confidence on the sole standing candidate); 2)
Do you support the introduction of universal suffrage for the
CE election in 2012?; 3) Do you support enactment of minimum
wage legislation?; and 4) Do you support a goods and services
tax (GST)? (Note: This last question will likely be
scrapped. On December 5, Financial Secretary Henry Tang
abruptly announced that the Government had shelved the GST
proposal due to lack of public support. End Note.)


3. (C) The referendum will be open to all permanent residents
over the age of 18 and will be conducted at volunteer polling
stations scattered throughout the city. Ho said the
organizers hoped to line up 40 polling stations, which will
be open from 10:00 am to 6:00 pm, but thus far had only
secured agreement from 16 secondary schools. Pro-Beijing
schools, she noted, had declined her invitation to serve as
polling stations, but Ho hoped Hong Kong Cardinal Joseph Zen
might consider hosting polling stations in Catholic secondary
schools. Other site possibilities included social service
centers, labor union facilities, and universities. (Note: By
comparison, for the 2004 Legco election the HKG established
501 polling stations. End Note.) Ho told us that she hoped
at least 200,000 people would participate in the referendum.


4. (C) Ho said three international observers from the
Initiative and Referendum Institute (IRI) had agreed to
monitor the entire polling process. On the funding side,
organizers have raised HKD 420,000 (USD 54,000) through
individual donations collected on the street, well short of
the estimated HKD 1.6 million (USD 200,000) needed to run the
referendum.


5. (C) Asked why she wanted to organize a referendum as
opposed to a public opinion poll, Ho explained that polls
were a passive form of interacting with the people, with
pollsters questioning random individuals. Referendums, on
the other hand, required active participation in a political
exercise. The referendum would give citizens an opportunity
to voice their opinion on the CE election, rather than
passively accept the results of the 800-member CE Election
Committee.

HKG and Beijing Reaction
--------------


6. (C) Responding to Project Civil Referendum's announcement
of its unofficial referendum, a Hong Kong Government
Constitutional Affairs Bureau spokesperson said on November
13 that local laws did not provide a mechanism for an
unofficial referendum. However, "if individuals or

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organizations wish to gauge public views on certain issues,
it would be up to them to decide on the means as long as
these activities are within the law." Ho privately
acknowledged that there had been some pressure from Beijing
regarding the referendum, but said the mainland authorities
thus far had been very low-key in their criticisms. She was
somewhat surprised that the pro-Beijing media had not
"smeared" the project already.


7. (C) In the recent past, other referendum proposals have
encountered more resistance. For example, in October 2004
Fernando Cheung, a democratic legislator representing the
social welfare sector, put forward a motion in the
Legislative Council (Legco) calling on the HKG to conduct a
referendum on the introduction of universal suffrage for the
2007/2008 CE and Legco elections. The HKG quickly rejected
Cheung's proposal and Director Gao Siren of the Central
Government Liaison Office (CGLO) said that conducting a
referendum would be seen as a political challenge to China.
The next attempt at hosting a referendum was during the July
1, 2005 pro-democracy march; the Civil Human Rights Front
hosted a "mock" referendum on the issue of universal suffrage
in 2007/2008 at Victoria Park, the starting point of the
democracy march, and collected over 7,700 votes.
Unfortunately, the results of the "mock" referendum were not
considered objective since the majority of voters were
clearly pro-democracy supporters. Later, during an October
2005 CE Question and Answer session in Legco, two democratic
legislators asked CE Donald Tsang about the possibility of
holding a referendum on the Government's constitutional
reform package; he responded that it would be "inappropriate"
to do so.


8. (C) In the interest of fairness, Ho sent letters to all
groups and organizations that might have an interest in the
results of the referendum, including trade unions, business
groups, and other organizations interested in GST, minimum
wage, and democracy issues. Ho said she was committed to
encouraging broad participation in the referendum, but did
not expect any pro-Beijing groups to participate. Privately,
Chan Yuen-han, a pro-Government legislator and member of the
Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (a pro-Beijing trade
union),told Ho that if the referendum only addressed the
minimum wage and GST issues, then Chan would support it and
perhaps even help mobilize voters. Since the unofficial
referendum included questions on universal suffrage and the
CE election, however, Chan said she could not support it.

A Democratic Exercise
--------------


9. (C) Project Civil Referendum had both supporters and
detractors among democrats, said Ho. Some were lukewarm on
the idea and concerned that the referendum results might even
harm Alan Leong's CE candidacy, if voters chose Donald Tsang
as their preferred CE candidate. Ho said she also had to
consider the possibility that Leong might not garner the 100
nominations necessary to stand in the election, in which case
the referendum voters would be casting a vote of confidence
on Tsang's election. Because some critics were unhappy with
the timing of the referendum, Ho had considered holding it
prior to the CE election, but had decided that she might be
accused by Beijing and the HKG of trying to influence the CE
election.


10. (C) Ho said she was relying on democratic colleagues to
mobilize pro-democracy supporters to participate, but she was
less concerned about the actual outcome of the referendum.
Even if Tsang turned out to be the sole CE candidate and
received a high vote of confidence from referendum voters,
that would be "okay," because the unofficial referendum would
serve to get people involved and participating in a
democratic exercise.


11. (C) Ho hoped the March referendum would be the first of
many such exercises in Hong Kong, and she hoped to persuade
the Government to host a referendum on various policy issues
in conjunction with the November 2007 district council
elections. She speculated that the HKG would eventually have
to propose Article 23 national security legislation, which
the public had strongly rejected in 2003, and she opined that
holding a referendum might be a useful means for opponents of
the legislation to push back. Depending on the success of
the March referendum, Ho said she also would consider holding
a referendum next year on the issue of political reform in

2012. (Comment: All of these ideas are clearly wishful
thinking. The HKG has made clear that it would not endorse

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or support any formal use of official referenda to gauge
public opinion. Furthermore, any referendum on political
reform almost certainly would be strongly criticized by
Beijing, as well. End Comment.)

Alan Leong's Campaign
--------------


12. (C) Ho said she generally agreed with the democrats'
strategy to put forward a pan-democratic candidate to
participate in the CE election. Boycotting the election
would not have achieved much. There was, however, a risk
that by participating, the democrats would help legitimize
the inherently unfair "small circle" election process. Ho
was not certain that Leong would get the 100 nominations he
needed to contest the election, but she hoped he would
"strike the right message" to the people during his campaign.
It was a mistake, in Ho's view, for Leong and the democrats
to focus on the lack of competition in the CE race as a
reason for CE election members to vote for Leong; it would be
more effective to focus on these structural defects of Hong
Kong's "undemocratic" electoral system.

Biographic Information
--------------


13. (C) In addition to her role as Co-Convenor of Project
Civil Referendum, Ho is also the Chairwoman of the Hong Kong
Human Rights Monitor, a district councilor representing the
Central and Western districts, and a frequent media
contributor on political and social issues. From 1998-2004,
she was a popular Legco member known for her advocacy of
environmental protection, human rights and democracy. In
2004, running as an independent democrat during the Legco
election, Ho surprisingly failed to win due to a strategic
electoral miscalculation by Democratic Party leaders. Ho
said she did not plan to seek re-election in the district
council elections next year, but would contest the 2008
Legislative Council election. She cited the financial burden
of operating her district council office as one reason for
her decision to forego reelection.
Sakaue