ALAN LEONG OFFICIALLY ENTERS CHIEF EXECUTIVE RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 004358

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: ALAN LEONG OFFICIALLY ENTERS CHIEF EXECUTIVE RACE

REF: HONG KONG 3872

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Pro-democracy Civic Party legislator Alan Leong
formally declared his candidacy for Hong Kong Chief Executive
(CE) on November 4. Leong denied that he had received any
pressure -- from Beijing or elsewhere -- not to run, and he
told the press that a single-candidate election for CE would
be a "bad thing" for Hong Kong. Two of Hong Kong's leading
independent newspapers supported Leong's decision as a means
to force current CE Donald Tsang to enunciate his vision for
the city and bring greater legitimacy to the Government. The
next step for Leong is to gather at least one hundred
nominations from the 800-member CE Election Committee (EC) in
late January or early February; if he surpasses that
threshold, he will be able to contest the March 25, 2007 vote
by the EC to choose the next CE. While opinions on whether
Leong can get at least one hundred EC votes are mixed, at
this point no one in Hong Kong believes he has any chance to
win the March election. End Summary.

Hat in the Ring
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2. (SBU) Civic Party legislator Alan Leong formally declared
his candidacy for Hong Kong Chief Executive (CE) on November

4. His long-expected announcement followed approval of his
candidacy at the party's annual general meeting. Leong
claimed that no one, including central government officials
in Beijing, had pressured him not to run. Leong also said he
had received "a very positive message" from various people in
Hong Kong about his decision to join the election. He also
told the press that a single-candidate election for CE would
be a "bad thing" for Hong Kong. On November 6, two of Hong
Kong's leading independent newspapers, the English-language
"South China Morning Post" (SCMP) and the Chinese "Ming Pao,"
supported Leong's decision to participate in the March 2007
CE election. The SCMP said it was important to have more
than one candidate for CE, as this would increase pressure on
current CE Donald Tsang to enunciate his vision for Hong Kong
and engage in public debate. "Ming Pao" observed that
genuine competition would boost public confidence and enhance
public acceptance of the Government.

Prospects for Nomination? Fair
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3. (SBU) Under Hong Kong's current partially democratic
electoral system (septel),a candidate for CE must receive at
least one hundred nominations from the 800-member Election
Committee (EC) to contest the election, scheduled for March
25, 2007. If CE Tsang is the only candidate to surpass this
threshold, as was the case in the most recent election in
2005, then he will run unopposed. Several months ago, when
it appeared likely that popular former Chief Secretary Anson
Chan would contest the election on behalf of the
pan-democrats, many observers felt she easily would garner
120-150 nominations, forcing CE Tsang to engage in public
debate over his policies and his vision for the future.
Since Chan decided in late September that she would not run,
however, the democrats have become somewhat less optimistic.
(reftel)


4. (C) Shiu Sin-por, formerly Director of the "One Country,
Two Systems Research Institute" and now a senior visiting
fellow at Beijing's Tsinghua University, told us on November
6 that Leong easily would be able to collect at least 100
nominations. The votes of the 25 pan-democrats in the
Legislative Assembly, together with most if not all of the
social welfare subector (40 EC members) and likely large
majoritie in the education (20),higher education (20),
lgal(20),and other professional subsectors, easil should
push Leong over the threshold needed to cntest the election.
While those nominations, du to be cast in late-January or
early Febuary, are not submitted under a secret ballot
system, Shiu felt that these electors would not be
susceptible to pressure from the mainland. Shiu also noted
his recent interview with cable television program host and
NPC local deputy Allen Lee, who contrarily opined that Leong
would have difficulty garnering even eighty nominations.

Prospects for Election? Nil
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5. (C) Once the nominations are compiled, the same EC will
vote in a secret ballot on March 25, 2007 to select the next
CE. To date we have not heard anyone in Hong Kong, even

HONG KONG 00004358 002 OF 002


among the pan-democrats, suggest that anyone other than CE
Tsang has even a long shot of winning the March vote. That

SIPDIS
said, anything less than a huge majority of the votes would
be viewed as a criticism of Tsang, his policies, and/or the
electoral system.
Cunningham