HONG KONG NEWSPAPERS REPORT POSSIBLE LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L HONG KONG 003120

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER



E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2031
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL HK CH
SUBJECT: HONG KONG NEWSPAPERS REPORT POSSIBLE LEADERSHIP
CHANGE AT BEIJING LIAISON OFFICE


CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING E/P CHIEF JEFF ZAISER; REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (SBU) ON AUGUST 2, THE "ORIENTAL DAILY" AND ITS SISTER
PUBLICATION "THE SUN" REPORTED THAT GAO SIREN, DIRECTOR OF
THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT LIAISON OFFICE (CGLO) IN HONG KONG,
WOULD RETIRE BY THE END OF YEAR. GAO, 62, BEGAN WORKING AT
THE CGLO IN JANUARY 2000 AS ONE OF EIGHT DEPUTY DIRECTORS,
THEN WAS PROMOTED TO DIRECTOR IN AUGUST 2002. THE "ORIENTAL
DAILY" SPECULATED THAT GAO WOULD BE REPLACED BY CAI DONGSHI,
DEPUTY PARTY SECRETARY OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE. ACCORDING TO
THE PAPER, CAI HAS WORKED IN GUANGDONG SINCE 1987, INCLUDING
STINTS AS SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMITTEE
AND HEAD OF THE PROVINCE'S PROPAGANDA DEPARTMENT.


2. (C) THIS LATEST SPECULATION NAMING CAI AS A CONTENDER FOR
THE CGLO POSITION RUNS COUNTER TO PREVIOUS RUMORS THAT EITHER
CGLO DEPUTY DIRECTOR PENG QINGHUA OR DEPUTY DIRECTOR LI GANG
WOULD BE PROMOTED TO DIRECTOR. (NOTE: BOTH OFFICIALS ARE
BELIEVED TO HAVE EXCELLENT PARTY CREDENTIALS. PENG
PREVIOUSLY WORKED AS SECRETARY TO SONG PING, WHO WAS
CONSIDERED A MENTOR TO PRESIDENT HU JINTAO AND PREMIER WEN
JIABAO. AND LI WORKED AT THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS OFFICE OF THE
COMMUNIST YOUTH LEAGUE (CYL),PERHAPS OVERLAPPING WITH HU AT
SOME POINT WHEN HE WAS CYL PARTY SECRETARY. END NOTE.) PENG
AND LI ARRIVED SEPARATELY IN LATE 2003, SEVERAL MONTHS AFTER
THE FIRST JULY 1 DEMONSTRATION. AT THE TIME, SEVERAL
ANALYSTS PREDICTED THAT GAO WOULD BE FORCED TO TAKE
RESPONSIBILITY FOR CGLOS MISREADING OF PUBLIC CONCERN OVER
ARTICLE 23 LEGISLATION AND WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED BY PENG
OR LI. HOWEVER, THIS LEADERSHIP SHUFFLE NEVER MATERIALIZED,
GAO HAS NOW BEEN THE CGLO DIRECTOR FOR FOUR YEARS, AND HE
ALSO IS TWO YEARS PAST THE OFFICIAL -- BUT NOT NECESSARILY
ENFORCED -- RETIREMENT AGE FOR MAINLAND OFFICIALS.


3. (C) VETERAN CHINA ANALYST JOHNNY LAU TOLD POLOFF ON AUGUST
2 THAT GAO'S REPLACEMENT BY CAI DONGSHI WAS MERELY
SPECULATION AT THIS STAGE, BUT SAID IT WAS "QUITE POSSIBLE"
THAT GAO WOULD BE RETIRING SOON. ACCORDING TO LAU, DEPUTY
DIRECTOR PENG WAS STILL THE "MOST POSSIBLE" CANDIDATE FOR THE
DIRECTOR POSITION. HE DID NOT BELIEVE THAT BEIJING HAD MADE
UP ITS MIND YET AND WARNED THAT THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT COULD
STILL "CHANGE ITS MIND UP TO THE LAST MINUTE" BEFORE MAKING
THEIR OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT.
SAKAUE