USCC MEETING WITH PRO-DEMOCRACY LEGISLATORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HONG KONG 003069

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NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER





E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: USCC MEETING WITH PRO-DEMOCRACY LEGISLATORS

CLASSIFIED BY: E/P SECTION ACTING CHIEF JEFF ZAISER; REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: ON JUNE 26, SIX HONG KONG PRO-DEMOCRACY
LEGISLATORS TOLD A VISITING DELEGATION FROM THE U.S.-CHINA
ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION (USCC) THAT HONG KONG
CHIEF EXECUTIVE DONALD TSANG "HAS PUT DEMOCRACY INTO A BLACK
HOLE." BEIJING WAS "VERY WORRIED" THAT FORMER CHIEF
SECRETARY ANSON CHAN MIGHT RUN AGAINST DONALD TSANG FOR CHIEF

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EXECUTIVE IN 2007 AND FORCE HIM TO "COMMIT TO POLICIES"
INCLUDING IMPLEMENTATION OF UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE. THE
PAN-DEMOCRATS FACED "SERIOUS DIFFICULTIES" IN CONTESTING THE
CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION, AND MANY OF THEIR SUPPORTERS "FEEL
DESPAIR OR APATHY" ABOUT THE HONG KONG POLITICAL SITUATION.
ONE LEGISLATOR, EMILY LAU, SUGGESTED THAT THE PAN-DEMOCRATS
SHOULD NOT CONTEST THE ELECTION, AS THAT WOULD SIMPLY LEND
LEGITIMACY TO THE PROCESS. MARTIN LEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY DISAGREED, SAYING IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL IF ANSON CHAN
LOST THE ELECTION COMMITTEE ELECTION BUT WON THE CONTEST FOR
PUBLIC OPINION. RONNY TONG OF THE CIVIC PARTY OBSERVED THAT
HONG KONG'S GROWING INCOME DISPARITY WAS A "PRESSURE COOKER
BUILDING." LEE OBSERVED THAT BEIJING'S DESIRE FOR
INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION, MOST RECENTLY MANIFESTED BY
PRESIDENT HU JINTAO'S APRIL VISIT TO WASHINGTON, LEFT THE
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPEN TO FOREIGN PRESSURE. TONG SAID THE
US SHOULD TELL BEIJING TO "BUILD UP DEMOCRACY, NOT JUST
IMPROVE HUMAN RIGHTS." END SUMMARY.


2. (C) ON JUNE 26, THE VISITING DELEGATION FROM THE
U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION (USCC)
DISCUSSED HONG KONG AND MAINLAND POLITICAL AND HUMAN RIGHTS
DEVELOPMENTS WITH SIX PRO-DEMOCRACY LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
(LEGCO) MEMBERS: MARTIN LEE AND LEE WING-TAT OF THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DP),RONNY TONG AND ALAN LEONG OF THE CIVIC
PARTY (CP),ALBERT CHENG (INDEPENDENT),AND EMILY LAU (THE
FRONTIER). THE COMMISSION MEMBERS DREW LAUGHTER AND A TOAST
FROM THE LEGCO MEMBERS WHEN THEY DESCRIBED THE PRC
GOVERNMENT'S ATTEMPT TO PLACE RESTRICTIONS ON THE
DELEGATION'S TRAVEL, INCLUDING LIMITATIONS ON THE SIZE OF THE
DELEGATION AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME IT SPENT IN CHINA, AS WELL
AS THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT'S "SINCERE HOPE" THAT THE
COMMISSIONERS NOT REFER TO "THE COMMISSION" NOR TO THEMSELVES
AS "COMMISSIONERS" WHILE IN CHINA, NOT TRAVEL DIRECTLY FROM
HONG KONG TO TAIWAN, AND NOT MEET WITH ANY PRO-DEMOCRACY
ADVOCATES IN HONG KONG.

CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION
--------------


3. (C) ACCORDING TO MARTIN LEE, HONG KONG CHIEF EXECUTIVE
DONALD TSANG "HAS PUT DEMOCRACY INTO A BLACK HOLE." HE SAID
BEIJING WAS "VERY WORRIED" THAT FORMER CHIEF SECRETARY ANSON
CHAN MIGHT RUN AGAINST DONALD TSANG FOR CHIEF EXECUTIVE IN
2007, BECAUSE A CONTESTED ELECTION COULD FORCE TSANG TO
"COMMIT TO POLICIES," HOPEFULLY INCLUDING A TIMETABLE FOR
IMPLEMENTATION OF UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE. LEE VIEWED CHAN AS A
"CREDIBLE CANDIDATE WHO WOULD LEGITIMIZE THE ELECTION AND
DONALD TSANG." HE REALIZED THAT BEIJING WAS WORRIED ABOUT
"ACCIDENTS" THAT MIGHT THREATEN HONG KONG'S STABILITY, BUT
ASKED RHETORICALLY ABOUT THE EFFECT OF ELECTION OF A NEW
CHIEF EXECUTIVE WHO LACKED POPULAR SUPPORT. LEE WING-TAT
SAID BEIJING WANTED TO KNOW THE RESULT OF AN ELECTION BEFORE
AGREEING TO HOLD ONE; IN OTHER WORDS, THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT
DEMANDED A "VERY HIGH SAFETY MARGIN." FURTHERMORE, BEIJING
DID NOT WANT TSANG TO FACE AN OPPOSITION CANDIDATE WHO WAS
CHARISMATIC OR WHOSE POPULARITY MIGHT BE HIGHER THAN THAT OF
THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE. MARTIN LEE ALSO EXPRESSED GRATITUDE FOR
U.S. SUPPORT, SAYING "ONLY THE U.S. WAS TRYING TO HELP HONG
KONG."


4. (C) RONNY TONG SAID THE PAN-DEMOCRATS FACED "SERIOUS
DIFFICULTIES" IN CONTESTING THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION, AND
HE BELIEVED THAT AN ANSON CHAN CANDIDACY WAS "NOT THE WHOLE
ANSWER." MANY DEMOCRATIC SUPPORTERS CURRENTLY "FEEL DESPAIR
OR APATHY" ABOUT THE HONG KONG POLITICAL SITUATION, AND ALSO
FEAR THAT "ANY PARTY NOT TALKING TO BEIJING HAS NO FUTURE."
TO ADDRESS THAT CONCERN, TONG SAID THE DEMOCRATS NEEDED TO
BUILD, PREFERABLY WITH INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE, A CHANNEL OF
COMMUNICATIONS TO BEIJING THAT WOULD HELP TO EASE THE CURRENT
LACK OF MUTUAL TRUST. SUCH AN EFFORT WOULD HAVE TO BE
UNDERTAKEN QUIETLY, SAID TONG, AS ANY PUBLIC PRESSURE WOULD
ONLY "HARDEN" BEIJING.


5. (C) EMILY LAU OPINED THAT THE PAN-DEMOCRATS SHOULD NOT
CONTEST THE ELECTION, AS THAT WOULD SIMPLY LEND LEGITIMACY TO
THE PROCESS AND SEND THE WRONG SIGNAL. MARTIN LEE DISAGREED,
SAYING THAT IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL IF ANSON CHAN, FOR
EXAMPLE, WERE TO RUN AND LOSE THE ELECTION COMMITTEE
ELECTION, BUT STILL WIN THE CONTEST FOR PUBLIC OPINION; IF AN

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE LOST BOTH THE VOTE AND THE PUBLIC
OPINION POLLS, HOWEVER, IT WOULD BE BAD FOR THE
PAN-DEMOCRATS. LAU STILL DISSENTED, ASKING THAT THE USG
"CONDEMN" THE ELECTION AND ADDING THAT IF ANSON CHAN "ACTS
LIKE A REAL CANDIDATE, IT ADDS LEGITIMACY" TO THE ELECTION.

UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE
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6. (C) ASKED ABOUT FEARS EXPRESSED TO THE DELEGATION EARLIER
THAT DAY (SEPTEL) BY THE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE FOR THE
BETTERMENT AND PROGRESS OF HONG KONG (DAB),THAT UNIVERSAL
SUFFRAGE WOULD ENABLE A "POPULIST PARTY" TO RAISE TAXES IN
ORDER TO INCREASE WELFARE BENEFITS, WHICH IN TURN WOULD
UNDERMINE HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS, TONG SAID
THERE CURRENTLY WERE NO "POPULIST" POLITICAL PARTIES IN HONG
KONG. THAT SAID, HOWEVER, HE BELIEVED THE CITY'S "HUGE
RICH-POOR GAP" WAS A "PRESSURE COOKER BUILDING." THE HKSARG
HAD DECIDED TO SPEND FIVE BILLION HONG KONG DOLLARS (USD 640
MILLION) TO CONSTRUCT A NEW GOVERNMENT OFFICE COMPLEX AT
TAMAR, BUT ARGUED ABOUT INCREASING A 130 HKD (USD 17) MONTHLY
WELFARE BENEFIT. HONG KONG, HE CONCLUDED, WAS "A VERY RICH
CITY WITH SOME VERY POOR PEOPLE." HE ALSO NOTED THAT NEWLY
ARRIVED IMMIGRANTS WERE REQUIRED TO RESIDE IN HONG KONG FOR
SEVEN YEARS BEFORE QUALIFYING FOR WELFARE BENEFITS. ALBERT
CHENG OBSERVED THAT "IF THE PEOPLE WANT WELFARE, SO BE IT --
IT'S THEIR CHOICE. HE SAID HONG KONG'S EXISTING SYSTEM, WITH
NO COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AND NO MINIMUM WAGE, PROTECTS BIG
BUSINESS, WHICH HE SAID WAS "GETTING A FREE LUNCH" WITH NO
ACCOUNTABILITY TO THE PUBLIC. TONG SAID THE DAB WAS A "GRASS
ROOTS, PRO-BEIJING" PARTY THAT REPRESENTED MANY OF HONG
KONG'S LOW-INCOME FAMILIES. HE SAID THE CITY'S "OLD PEOPLE"
TENDED TO BE MORE PATRIOTIC, WITH SIXTY PERCENT OF RESIDENTS
OVER THE AGE OF SIXTY SUPPORTING THE DAB. CONVERSELY, HE
SAID YOUNG, HIGHER INCOME PEOPLE TENDED TO SUPPORT HIS CP.
THE DAB CURRENTLY WAS "TOEING THE GOVERNMENT LINE," WHICH WAS
THAT THE ECONOMY WAS DOING WELL SO "DON'T RUIN IT."

MAINLAND: OPEN TO FOREIGN PRESSURE
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7. (C) EMILY LAU RAISED THE CASE OF DETAINED HONG KONG
JOURNALIST CHING CHEONG, SAYING SHE HAD HEARD HE SOON WOULD
BE SENTENCED TO UP TO TEN YEARS IMPRISONMENT. MARTIN LEE
OBSERVED THAT BEIJING'S DESIRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION,
MOST RECENTLY MANIFESTED BY PRESIDENT HU JINTAO'S APRIL VISIT
TO WASHINGTON, LEFT THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPEN TO FOREIGN
PRESSURE. WHILE SOME ISSUES COULD BE RAISED QUIETLY, LEE
FELT THAT "SOMETIMES YOU NEED TO GO PUBLIC." QUOTING
CARDINAL ZEN ("I AM UNREPENTEDLY OPTIMISTIC"),LEE SAID THE
KEY IN DEALING WITH THE MAINLAND WAS TO MONITOR THEIR
COMPLIANCE WITH THEIR PROMISES. RONNY TONG SAID THE US
SHOULD TELL BEIJING TO "BUILD UP DEMOCRACY, NOT JUST IMPROVE
HUMAN RIGHTS." THE PRC COULD NOT HAVE RESPECT FOR HUMAN
RIGHTS UNLESS THERE WAS THE RULE OF LAW, AND IT COULD NOT
HAVE RULE OF LAW WITHOUT DEMOCRACY.


8. (SBU) THE USCC DELEGATION HAS CLEARED THIS CABLE.
MULLINS