FORMER SECRETARY FOR SECURITY REGINA IP RETURNS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002966

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NOFORN
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DEPT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2031
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL HK CH
SUBJECT: FORMER SECRETARY FOR SECURITY REGINA IP RETURNS TO
HONG KONG'S POLITICAL LIMELIGHT

Classified By: Acting E/P Chief Jeff Zaiser. Reasons: 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary: On July 18, following a well-choreographed
return to Hong Kong, former Secretary for Security Regina Ip
launched the Savantas Policy Institute, a think tank which
will focus on how to transform Hong Kong into a
knowledge-based economy and develop the city into the
mainland's platform for technology transfer. As the
Government's staunchest supporter of failed Article 23
legislation, Ip abruptly resigned two weeks after the massive
July 1, 2003 demonstration, citing "personal reasons." After
three years of study at Stanford, Ip returned to Hong Kong as
a cautious supporter of universal suffrage, stating "there is
no reason why direct elections to the fifth term of the
legislature not be held in 2012." While Ip has been vague
about her political future, her supporters and analysts have
freely speculated that she may run for a seat in the
Legislative Council in 2008 and/or contest the 2012 Chief
Executive election. One analyst stated, "Ip may be
fashioning a powerful political persona for herself -- that
of a convert to democracy with the advantages of ministerial
experience and Beijing's support." Comment: Several of our
contacts believe that Beijing's implicit support of Ip will
serve as a reminder to Chief Executive Donald Tsang that,
like his former boss C.H. Tung, he also is replaceable. End
Summary and Comment.

A Choreographed Return to Hong Kong
--------------


2. (SBU) At a July 18 press conference, former Secretary for
Security Regina Ip formally launched the Savantas Policy
Institute, a public policy think tank that will focus on
transforming Hong Kong into a knowledge-based economy and on
developing the city into the mainland's platform for
technology transfer and trading intellectual property rights.
(Note: Savantas' focus echoes calls by former Chief
Executive (CE) C.H. Tung to develop Hong Kong into a
knowledge-based economy. End Note.) Most of the 11 members
of the Savantas board of governors are graduates of Stanford
University, where Ip spent the last three years completing a
master's degree under Professor Larry Diamond, a scholar in
comparative studies on democracy.


3. (C) Ip spent much of her hour and forty-five minute press
conference deflecting questions about her political future.
Since her June 19 interviews with "Sing Tao Daily" and "The
Standard," Ip's return to the political limelight has been
daily fare in the media. Several Consulate contacts have
speculated to poloff that Ip likely planned her return to
Hong Kong several months in advance and had received
substantial assistance from friends in Hong Kong, who
liaised with local media in generating the extensive media
coverage. The former civil servant also explained her
thoughts on Hong Kong's prospects for democracy, saying
"there is no reason why direct elections to the fifth term of
the legislature not be held in 2012." She noted, however,
that certain pre-conditions should be met before achieving
universal suffrage, including obtaining the support of the
Central Government. Generating even more interest in her
return to Hong Kong were hints that she might form a new
political party or even run for a legislative seat.


4. (SBU) On July 4, eight newspapers carried a summary of her
master's thesis, "Hong Kong: A Case Study in Democratic
Development and Transitional Society." Ip explained how the
"debilitating disconnect" between the executive and
legislative branches had hampered the Hong Kong Government's
efficiency, and she also expressed support for a bicameral
legislative system.

An Unlikely Democrat
--------------


5. (SBU) During Ip's tenure as Secretary for Security from
1998-2003, she was dubbed "Hong Kong's Iron Lady" for her
tough demeanor. Given her record in that office, her recent
pronouncements in support of universal suffrage are
considered a bit out of character by some analysts. As the
primary architect of Article 23, Ip became extremely
unpopular with many Hong Kongers over her uncompromising
defense of national security legislation and her remarks on
democracy. In 2002, she warned that democracy was not a
panacea for all of Hong Kong's problems and reminded Hong
Kongers that Adolf Hitler had been elected by a "one man, one
vote" election. Moreover, during the run-up to the July 1,
2003 march, which attracted more than half a million

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protestors, Ip became one of the targets of anti-Article 23
demonstrators; fifteen days after the massive protest, the
28-year veteran of the Government resigned from the
Government, citing "personal reasons." During the launch of
Savantas, Ip declined to apologize for her work on Article 23
or to back down from her Hitler comment, saying that she
believed her remarks were not controversial and were grounded
in "political science views."

Ip's Political Future
--------------


6. (SBU) While Ip has been careful to say as little as
possible about her political ambitions, both analysts and her
supporters have speculated freely to the media, generating
even more excitement about her return to politics. On July
11, political commentator Allen Lee opined to the "South
China Morning Post (SCMP)" that Ip might be interested in
seeking a directly elected seat in the 2008 Legco election
and eventually the Legco presidency. Lee added that Ip also
might be interested in seeking the Chief Executive job in

2012. On July 19, both Chan Wing-kee, a member of the
Central People's Consultative Conference (CPPCC),and tycoon
Stanley Ho said at the Savantas launch that they would
support Ip if she decided to run in the 2008 Legco elections.


7. (SBU) According to Professor Ma Ngok of the Hong Kong
University of Science and Technology, in a statement to the
SCMP on July 13, establishing a think tank was a clever move
on the part of Ip. It not only raises her media profile, but
also provides a platform for her future political ambitions.
In another July 13 SCMP column, Christine Loh, Chief
Executive of Civic Exchange agreed: "Ip may be fashioning a
powerful political persona for herself -- that of a convert
to democracy with the advantages of ministerial experience
and Beijing's support." In addition to being the head of
Savantas, Ip will also host a weekly television program on
ATV, for which she already has interviewed Civic Party leader
Audrey Eu and Liberal Party Chairman James Tien.

Biographic Information
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8. (SBU) Ip joined the Hong Kong Government in 1975 and
served in a number of branches and departments including the
Civil Service Branch, Home Affairs Department, Security
Branch, Trade Department, Chief Secretary's Office and Trade
and Industry Branch. After her May 1998 promotion to
Secretary for Security, she was dubbed "Hong Kong's Iron

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Lady." Ip resigned from that position on July 16, 2003 for
"personal reasons."
Sakaue