JULY 1 DEMONSTRATIONS: PRELUDE TO 2007 CHIEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002728

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NOFORN
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2031
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: JULY 1 DEMONSTRATIONS: PRELUDE TO 2007 CHIEF
EXECUTIVE ELECTION

REF: HONG KONG 2709

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Simon Schuchat; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: on July 1, Hong Kong marked the ninth
anniversary of its reversion to the PRC with three major
events: an official flag-raising ceremony led by Chief
Executive Donald Tsang, a "patriotic" parade organized by a
coalition of pro-Beijing and pro-business organizations that
drew 40-50,000 participants, and a pro-democracy rally and
march through the city that attracted somewhere between
28,000 and 58,000 people, significantly more than last year's
event. The pan-democrats generally were pleased that they
were able to attract a sizable crowd in the absence of any
pressing economic or political issues, and attributed their
success in part to the active participation of former Chief
Secretary Anson Chan, who still declines to clarify her plans

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for the 2007 Chief Executive election. Veteran political
commentator Allen Lee told us on July 3, however, that
"Beijing will not be moved by" the successful July 1
pro-democracy march. He said the central government
currently was focused on the Chief Executive Election
Committee process and would "use any means" to prevent the
pan-democrats from amassing the one hundred electors
necessary to contest the election. Lee said Chan still does
not want to run, but eventually will bow to pressure from the
pan-democrats, who are beset with various internal problems,
because "they have no-one else." The pan-democrats also are
awaiting a decision by Chan, whom they believe already has
"paid the price for running against the candidate supported
by Beijing." End Summary.

Competing Events
--------------


2. (SBU) On the morning of July 1, Hong Kong Chief Executive
Donald Tsang officiated at a flag-raising ceremony to mark
the ninth anniversary of Hong Kong's reversion to the PRC.
Tsang told the invited attendees that the most important

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mission for Hong Kong was to ensure the successful
implementation of the "One Country, Two Systems" and the
"Hong Kong People Running Hong Kong" principles. Following
the official event, adherents of Hong Kong's two major
opposing political points of view organized separate
large-scale public demonstrations. First, a coalition of
pro-Beijing and pro-business organizations led by Hong Kong
Federation of Trade Unions President Cheng Yiu-tong organized
a "patriotic" parade that drew 40,000 (police estimate) to
50,000 (organizers' estimate) participants. Chief Secretary
Rafael Hui, two other cabinet members, Central Government
Liaison Office officials, and the commander of the PLA Hong
Kong Garrison attended, along with various local business and
community leaders. There were musical and martial arts
performances, followed by a three-hour parade.


3. (C) Later on the same day, the pan-democracy camp rallied
at Victoria Park before marching through Hong Kong. Police
and organizers estimated the crowd at 28,000 and 58,000
respectively, well above last year's figures of 17,000 and
21,000. Regardless of the precise number, the organizers
were able to claim that attendance exceeded their publicized
expectation of 30-40,000, although it fell far short of the
much larger turnout of hundreds of thousands in 2003 and
2004, when more urgent political, economic, and social issues
energized the masses. Civic Party member Joseph Cheng
Yu-shek told us on July 3 that this year's roughly 50,000 was
a "good turnout given the circumstances." Cheng also noted
that since 2003, there has been a "certain sense of
competition between the democrats and the patriots", and he
conceded that "a majority of Hong Kong people probably were
more in favor of the patriotic position than the democratic
position." With the greater level of resources available to
the pro-government and pro-Beijing organizations, Cheng said
it was relatively easy for them to mobilize 50,000-100,000
people for a demonstration.

Star of the Show: Anson Chan
--------------


4. (SBU) Former Hong Kong Chief Secretary Anson Chan easily
attracted the most attention during the pan-democratic march,
drawing cheers from observers as she walked part of the
route. Since announcing one week ago her plan to join the
event, Chan had issued near-daily appeals for the people of
Hong Kong to join the march. Before leaving the rally, Chan
paused to answer questions from the media horde that had
followed her. She said she did not intend to "make trouble"

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or to use the rally to further her personal political
ambitions, and she urged the Government to take the
initiative and map out a plan for implementation of universal
suffrage. Finally, asked yet again whether she planned to
run against Chief Executive Tsang in the 2007 election, Chan
reiterated that she would make her position clear "at a
suitable time." She also observed that the best way for the
central government in Beijing to demonstrate its commitment
to the "One Country, Two Systems" principle would be to give
the people of Hong Kong universal suffrage.


5. (SBU) The pro-democracy political parties, including the
Democratic Party, Civic Party, and The Frontier, also were
out in force for the march, as were their most prominent
leaders (Lee Wing-tat, Ronny Tong, Emily Lau, and others).
The banners carried by their supporters largely focused on
the issue of universal suffrage. Other participants included
the Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU),
advocating democratization as well as adoption of a minimum
wage; the Hong Kong Journalists' Association, urging "A Fair,
Just, and Open Trial for (imprisoned journalist) Ching
Cheong;" the Falun Gong organization; animal rights
activists; harbor front preservations; teachers; and a large
contingent of Asian domestic workers protesting increased
fees. A consulate observer estimated that roughly 85 percent
of the participants were pro-democracy advocates.


6. (C) Pan-democratic leaders were pleased that the turnout
for their march, while nowhere near the levels of the
corresponding 2003 or 2004 events, or even the December 2005
rally against Chief Executive Tsang's plan for constitutional
reform, exceeded both last year's level and some of the more
pessimistic predictions for this year. They were happy not
to have been embarrassed, and they noted, fairly, that there
currently were no major political or economic crises to
mobilize the masses. HKCTU Secretary General Lee Cheuk-yan
told us on July 3 that he felt the people of Hong Kong had
shown "persistence" in attending the rally without any
"urgent issues." Lee, who in the past has been somewhat
lukewarm about Chan's democratic credentials, welcomed her
participation but described her effect on the event as
"limited but useful;" he believed the people of Hong Kong
generally viewed Chan as a "person of the establishment," so
her participation tended to lend more credibility to the
pan-democratic event.

Beijing "Will Not Be Moved"
--------------


7. (C) On July 3, Liberal Party founder and veteran political
commentator Allen Lee told us that, while the July 1
pan-democracy march was successful, "Beijing will not be
moved by it." He said the central government's efforts
currently were focused on the Chief Executive Election
Committee process, due to begin in December, and they would
"use any means" to ensure that the pan-democrats are unable
to amass the one hundred nominations necessary to contest the
election. Lee said Chan's candidacy would put a lot of
pressure on Donald Tsang: although she certainly would lose a
vote in the Election Committee, she might subsequently defeat
Tsang in the public popularity polls. He also believed that

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Chan still does not want to run, but eventually will bow to
pressure from the pan-democrats, who are beset with various
internal problems, because "they have no-one else." Chan
could become their "spiritual leader."


8. (C) Lee also told us that his contacts in Beijing recently
had asked him whether he could convince Anson Chan to join
Donald Tsang's administration in some capacity, possibly as a
member of the Executive Council (Exco). He said he planned
to discuss this issue with Chan in the next few days,
although he did not think she would agree. Lee also thought
that a Chan candidacy would help Donald Tsang bargain more
effectively with Beijing to gain their agreement for
membership in his next cabinet and for establishment of a
roadmap to universal suffrage.

Waiting for Anson
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9. (C) On July 3, the Civic Party's Joseph Cheng told us that
now the pan-democrats "have to wait for Anson Chan." Cheng
believed Anson already had decided to join the election, as
she already had "paid the price for running against the
candidate supported by Beijing." The democrats would not
approach her, but if Chan decided to run she would be their
candidate, both because she is respected and credible and

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because there is nobody else with her standing outside the
democratic movement. Cheng said it was necessary to
distinguish between Chan as a pro-democracy candidate and as
a leader of the democracy movement; she could easily become
the former, but would not be the latter.

Cunningham