WATCH THIS SPACE: ANSON CHAN AND THE ELECTION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002210

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: WATCH THIS SPACE: ANSON CHAN AND THE ELECTION OF
THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE


Classified By: E/P Section Chief Simon Schuchat; reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: On May 25, in her first public speech in
more than three months, former Chief Secretary Anson Chan
told a media awards dinner that at this time she was "not
willing to disclose" her future plans regarding the 2007
Chief Executive election; instead, she instructed the press
to "just watch this space." At the same event, Chan also
said her desired headline for July 1, 2007, which will be the
tenth anniversary of Hong Kong's reversion to the PRC, would
be "that there will be a timetable for democratic reform."
These comments have done nothing to ease speculation in Hong
Kong political circles about Chan's possible plans. On May
26, two knowledgeable contacts provided different analyses of
Chan's recent actions. First, independent Legco member
Albert Chan told poloff that he was certain Anson Chan would
not contest the 2007 election and was just using public
interest in that possibility to express her "anger and
frustration" about the administration of current Chief
Executive Donald Tsang. According to Hong Kong Baptist
University professor Michael DeGolyer, however, Chan might be
awaiting a "draft" by the pan-democrats, once they can
confirm that they will gain at least one hundred nominations
in the Election Committee. On May 16, Anson Chan had told
the Consul General that, while she had said publicly that she
did not intend to run for Chief Executive, she nevertheless
believed that a challenger could "defeat" Tsang in the public
opinion polls, despite losing in the Election Committee,
which would return Tsang to office but publicly embarrass
both him and Beijing. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On Thursday, May 25, former Hong Kong Chief
Secretary Anson Chan addressed the "Society of Publishers in

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Asia" awards dinner, her first public address since the death
of her mother on February 20. Since then, other than a May 4
exclusive interview in "Next Magazine," during which she
stressed that she had no intention of contesting the 2007
Chief Executive race, Chan generally has eschewed public
comment on political issues. Her silence, however, has not
prevented the Hong Kong public and press from speculating
about whether she might contest the election, and if so what
effect her candidacy would have on the contest.

"Just Watch This Space"
--------------


3. (SBU) Following her keynote speech to the publishers about
the importance of freedom of information, Chan was asked what
headline she would want to see on July 1, 2007, which will be
the tenth anniversary of Hong Kong's reversion to the PRC.
In response, she said it should be "that there will be a
timetable for democratic reform." On the issue of Article 23
of the Basic Law, which requires Hong Kong to enact national
security legislation, Chan said the HKSAR had a
constitutional obligation to do so and hoped that the
government's next attempt would be more sensitive to the
views of the community. Otherwise, however, she refused to
provide any glint of information on her political future.
Chan said she had been retired for five years, was now a
"private citizen," and as such was "not willing to disclose
at this stage" her future plans. Instead, she advised the
press to "just watch this space."


Keep Them Guessing
--------------


4. (C) During a May 16 private meeting, Anson Chan told the
Consul General that she generally had been refusing to speak
to the press about politics and her political future, and had
said publicly that she did not intend to run for Chief
Executive. She said officials in Beijing sometimes contacted
her to ask her intentions, but she preferred to "keep them
guessing." That said, however, Chan believed a challenger
could run against and possibly defeat Donald Tsang in the
public opinion polls, rather than the Election Committee.
Such a development would be "very embarrassing" to both Tsang
and Beijing. Chan also believed that Beijing feared the
Election Committee vote because, unlike the nomination
process, it is by sec-ret ballot.

Anger and Frustration
--------------


5. (C) Reflecting the public's current uncertainty regarding
Chan's intentions, on May 26 two highly knowledgeable
observers of Hong Kong politics gave poloff contrasting
analyses of Chan's remarks. First, independent democratic

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member of the Legislative Council Albert Chan, a founder of
Hong Kong's Democratic Party who has known Anson Chan for
decades, said he was "certain" that she would not run for
Chief Executive. He described her as a "very calculating"
person who was not interested in becoming a "martyr" and was
simply using attention on her possible candidacy to express
"anger and frustration" about Donald Tsang. More generally,
Albert Chan opined that any pan-democratic candidate would be
unable to win the one hundred Election Committee votes
required for nomination, because the people of Hong Kong were
pragmatic and realized that the Chief Executive could not run
Hong Kong without support from Beijing, which only Donald
would enjoy. This, he said, was a "reality we have to face."

Awaiting a Draft
--------------


6. (C) On the same day, however, Hong Kong Baptist University
Professor and "Hong Kong Transition Project" Director Michael
DeGolyer observed to poloff that Chan keeps denying, "more
and more coyly," that she would contest the election. He
believed, however, that she might be awaiting a "draft,"
which he felt she probably would get, once the Democratic
Party and the Civic Party were able to assure her that she
would receive the one hundred Election Committee nominations
necessary for a candidacy. In the meantime, DeGolyer
suggested that any missteps by Tsang and/or negative economic
news would benefit a potential challenger, such as Chan.
DeGolyer also described Chan as an "extremely politically
astute" person whose grasp of Hong Kong public opinion was
unsurpassed.
Cunningham