PRC PLANS FOR INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ABROAD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 001687 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM AND EB TREASURY FOR DAS DLOEVINGER AND OASIA GKOEPKE STATE PASS USTR USDOC FOR 4420 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV HK CH SUBJECT: PRC PLANS FOR INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ABROAD ENERGIZE HONG KONG'S FINANCIAL SECTOR (U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE U.S. GOVERNMENT CHANNELS. NOT FOR INTERNET PUBLICATION. SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: China's recent announcement of steps to allow expanded individual access to foreign exchange as well as the creation of new channels for investment abroad has driven up Hong Kong's stock market, drawn out enthusiastic prognostications from media, and even impressed our financial strategist contacts, otherwise known for their tendency to downplay the potential impact of economic policy changes from the north. If only a small percentage of the USD 3-4 trillion of deposits in China's banking system flows out over the next five years, the result could still be: a boost for Hong Kong's stocks and role as a financial center; a reduction of China's propensity to accumulate foreign exchange reserves; and a structural environment far more conducive to a renminbi (RMB) traded according to market forces. Our contacts believe China's policy change at least in part reflects internal alarm about the PRC's ability to continue absorbing (sterilizing) large net inflows of foreign exchange. END SUMMARY MORE ACCESS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY FOR INVESTMENT... -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) A joint circular put out on April 14 by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is the first step towards mainland residents having expanded access to foreign exchange and, for the first time, being able to invest some of their individual assets abroad. The announcement included measures allowing: o Companies that trade in goods and services to hold higher foreign currency balances as well as an easing of restrictions on services payments; o Individuals to purchase up to USD 20,000 in foreign exchange annually; o Domestic banks to invest corporate and individual assets in overseas fixed income securities; o Domestic asset management companies to take corporate and individual foreign exchange assets and invest them in overseas markets, including equity markets; o Insurance companies to have a wider scope to invest in overseas fixed income markets. ¶3. (U) Detailed regulations are to be published by May 1, with the changes taking place on that date. SEEN AS SIGNIFICANT IN THE MEDIUM TERM -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Drawing from our discussions with contacts as well as a review of research reports and media analysis, we note that the change in PBOC/SAFE policy offers individual investors in China the ability to seek higher returns abroad for the first time. There are an estimated USD 3-4 trillion dollars of deposits in China, most of which is tied up in low-yielding bank accounts (2.25 percent return) or domestic stock markets, whose performance in recent years has been poor and volatile. If even a small percentage of these funds are eventually invested abroad, mainland wealth amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars could eventually reach the international financial system. ¶5. (SBU) Most observers expect the new PBOC/SAFE policy to be implemented gradually, so a significant outflow of funds is not likely to take place for years. An eventual and significant transfer of assets abroad, however, could over the next several years reduce the PBOC's propensity to accumulate foreign exchange reserves. The more open capital market resulting from the new provisions would also be a step forward in creating an atmosphere where the RMB could trade in greater accordance with market demand. A high outflow of capital even has the potential to become a depreciating force for the RMB. HONG KONG 00001687 002 OF 003 A BOOST FOR HONG KONG -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said he hoped the PBOC/SAFE policy change would lead to Hong Kong serving as a conduit for new investments. Hong Kong's Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma was in Beijing during the announcement and predicted that mainland institutions and individuals would use Hong Kong as an investment platform to buy into the local stock and debt markets, yielding benefits for local banks, brokers, and fund managers. The news of the new investment channels was credited with boosting the H-share index (covering mainland firms listed in Hong Kong) to its highest level since 1997. HSBC Senior China Economist Hongbin Qu told us that much of the new investment outside of China will actually go to fixed-income funds in the U.S. and Europe, but he agreed that there will a measurable percentage of the assets that will reach Hong Kong, probably going to mainland-tied stocks listed here. DRIVEN BY ECONOMIC PRESSURE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In a research note, UBS Managing Director Jonathan Anderson suggested that economic pressure -- and, perhaps to a lesser extent, President Hu's visit to the U.S. -- explains the policy shift. First quarter 2006 trade data showing a higher than expected surplus was almost certainly a big disappointment to the PBOC, which is increasingly concerned about keeping control of the domestic money supply in the face of strong foreign exchange inflows. Overcapacity in sectors like steel and cement, leading to a diminished need for imports, as well as moderating trends in domestic demand growth suggest a need for sustained intervention for the foreseeable future to soak up excess foreign exchange by taking the resulting excess funds out of the money supply (i.e., sterilization). There is a risk over time that banks will demand higher interest rates from the government for the financial instruments used to do this. The PBOC is therefore looking for structural solutions to reduce this net inflow. Bear Stearns Managing Director Michael Kurtz and HSBC's Qu echoed Anderson's view. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS FORESEEN -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although some of China's domestic banks, corporations, and pension funds have been given limited access to outward FDI and overseas portfolio investment in recent years, the PBOC/SAFE policy change marks the first time that households and average firms are going to be able to invest in this way. It is also the first time that domestic residents have been able to convert renminbi funds for overseas portfolio investment purposes. Bear Stearns' Kurtz contemplates up to 10 percent of existing deposits moving offshore over the next five years to seek higher returns, implying an outflow of at least USD 300 billion, or USD 60 billion per year. In his view, this could ease significantly the foreign exchange inflow pressures on the PBOC. The improved rates of return on personal savings could also lead a reduction in China's savings rate, since consumers would need to save less in order to amass a given amount of money to meet future welfare needs (e.g., education, health, retirement). (Comment: In reviewing this message, Embassy Beijing noted that the magnitude of outflow contemplated by Bear Stearns is significantly higher than the approximately USD 10 billion quota anticipated by a SAFE Deputy Administrator in a discussion about the policy change. That said, the program has the potential to expand either officially or as a larger informal outlet for funds flows. End Comment.) ¶9. (SBU) Citibank Managing Director Yiping Huang picked up on the personal savings issue. Huang emphasized the PRC government's awareness of the "desperate need" for retirement assets in China to attain higher returns. Consequently, insurance companies, banks, and individuals are all looking to Beijing to create new channels for investment. Huang also noted the excessive liquidity now present in China's financial system, with recent data showing high rates of new loan creation. The new policy can therefore be seen as a mechanism that offers potential for credit tightening to cool HONG KONG 00001687 003 OF 003 the economy. In this vein, Bear Stearns' Kurtz observed that improved returns on savings might also put pressure on banks and corporations to think harder about how they lend and invest capital; this could lead to better earnings and governance for listed companies. HSBC's Qu focused on the potential for a notable change in the composition of outflows from China, with fewer purchases of foreign exchange by the government. He assessed that this change will do much to boost the development of a market-based system for setting the value of the RMB. THE LONG-AWAITED QDII? -------------- ¶10. (U) China already has a Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) arrangement that allows foreign institutional investors to invest foreign funds in stock and bond markets, subject to limited quotas. There has been anticipation for some time about a mirror program to enable domestic funds to seek higher returns outside of China, and observers have assumed this would be called a Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) arrangement. China has yet to use the "QDII" terminology to describe the recent changes but many observers and media outlets are already referring to it in this manner. Cunningham