FORMER SHI'A PROPONENT OF FEDERALISM CHANGES HIS MIND

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000083

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL IZ
SUBJECT: FORMER SHI'A PROPONENT OF FEDERALISM CHANGES HIS MIND

CLASSIFIED BY: Alfred Fonteneau, Regional Coordinator, REO
Hillah, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: A well known regional proponent of federalism
has reversed course. After several years of holding seminars on
federalism, often at the behest of South Central politicians,
Diwaniyah Law School President Malin Lilo explained that he was
now convinced that federalism would result in a Southern Iraqi
Islamic Republic more extremist and less democratic than Iran.
Lilo notes that Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in
Iraq (SCIRI) political leaders continue to show interest in
different federalism models. Lilo outlined his likely scenario
for southern Iraq; a late Fall assembly of southern Provincial
Councils in which the ground work for a quasi-independent Shi'a
state would be laid. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Malin Lilo is the author of several Arabic press legal
review articles on federalism. Since the CPA era, he has run
many workshops and discussions on federalism in the South
Central provinces. He recently became the head of the Diwaniyah
Law School.


3. (C) On May 8, when REO staff spoke with Dr. Lilo, he stated
that he had been approached by SCIRI leaders in Najaf and
Karbala to hold a conference on federalism for Southern Iraq,
and had refused. He no longer believed that federalism could
improve the lives of ordinary Iraqis in this region, Lilo
commented. His work on federalism had focused on expanding
provincial powers or on combining three provinces into a
federation. He now believed that SCIRI leaders were only
interested in a nine province Shi'a South, one that inevitably
would be run according to conservative, perhaps radical, Islamic
tenets. SCIRI would follow in the footsteps of HAMAS, Lilo said,
predicting that a SCIRI-dominated regional government dominated
by the "ignorant and the extreme would be a disaster." As an
example, he contrasted the progress of the Kurdish provinces
compared to the South Central provinces in building
infrastructure.


4. (C) Lilo said that following his International Visitor
program visit to the United States, he felt "he could not
refuse" a similar invitation to tour religious sites in Iran.
He noted that he and his two companions had bribed their tour
guide to make the visit more conventional tourism. Lilo said he
was struck by just how more liberal Iran seemed, compared to
southern Iraq. Boys and girls could never walk in mixed groups
in Diwaniyah as they did in secular Iranian cities, he
commented. He related his surprise at seeing young Iranians on
the subway with U.S. flag wrist bracelets.


5. (C) Lilo contrasted Iran with the current situation in
Diwaniyah. Two days ago, a SCIRI-run radio station (seized from
a US-supported NGO last year) had stopped broadcasting music as
part of their programming. Section heads in the provincial
government (DGs) had started growing their beards out in order
to keep their jobs. In the last two months, a series of
targeted assassinations had killed a physician (allegedly for
slandering SCIRI),an ex-interpreter for Coalition Forces, and
an ex-Baathist. Normally calm Diwaniyah was seeing an upswing
in IEDs, small arms fire, and other attacks (comment: including
a rocket attack on Camp Echo the night before Polish
Constitutional Day and a mortar attack last week).


6. (C) Comment: Lilo's dark mood may have been influenced by a
Sadrist-directed student strike at the University of Diwaniyah
where a student sit-in for a week had been followed by a faculty
sit-in that lasted one day and dissolved due to threats of
violence. Unlike other observers, he had little to say about
Muqtada al-Sadr and the Mahdi Militia, other than to say that he
thought the MM were following MAS's instructions to avoid
confrontation with Coalition Forces. He remains convinced,
however, that the SCIRI-dominated Provincial Council is heavily
Iranian influenced and that while members profess to draw
guidance from Ali Sistani, their real spiritual allegiance is to
Khameini. End Comment

FONTENEAU