SOUTH CENTRAL SHI'A VIEWS ON SELECTION OF JAWAD AL-MALIKI AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000072 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM IZ SUBJECT: SOUTH CENTRAL SHI'A VIEWS ON SELECTION OF JAWAD AL-MALIKI AS PRIME MINISTER HILLAH 00000072 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Alfred Fonteneau, Regional Coordinator, REO Hillah, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: After the April 22 selection of Jawad Al-Maliki as the Prime Minister-designate, REO Hillah canvassed leaders in the heavily Shi'a South Central region of Iraq for their views on this development. Not surprisingly, reaction to Maliki's selection broke down mostly along Shi'a Islamist/secular lines, with Islamists largely supporting his selection, and most secular leaders criticizing him or stating they would withhold judgment on him until they see how he performs as Prime Minister (PM). Some Islamist leaders described Maliki as a better leader than Ibrahim Al-Jafari, who Maliki very recently replaced as the Shi'a Islamist United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) coalition's PM candidate (NOTE: Maliki is Jafari's deputy in the Islamic Da'wa party, which is a constituent member of the UIA). Many of those contacted indicated they were glad to see the formation of the government progress. There have been no protests in the South Central region to the replacement of Jafari with Maliki, or to Maliki's selection as PM. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- SADRIST, ISLAMIC DA'WA LEADERS WELCOME SELECTION OF MALIKI -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) REO Hillah local staff spoke with two Sadrist leaders in the South Central region, both of whom described Maliki's selection as PM as beneficial and predicted it would advance the formation of the government. One from Najaf stated explicitly that "Sadrists will respect this decision." They both noted Maliki's strong anti-Baathist credentials and highlighted the fact that his selection was a UIA decision. ¶3. (C) One of the Sadrist leaders, Dr. Basim Sharif Al-Hejamy (Islamic Fadila party),a Council of Representatives (CoR) member from Wasit and a spokesman for the UIA, described Maliki as a man of action, asserting that he "wishes to execute more than talk." Al-Hejamy also alluded to the UIA's determination to have its own coalition, or, more broadly, the Shi'a members of the CoR, dominate the new government, in stating that Maliki's selection "is also a good step to overcome the Sunni's plan to form a national unity government." ¶4. (C) Sa'ad Zawain, the deputy head of the Islamic Da'wa party office in Najaf province, described Maliki as an "excellent candidate" for the Prime Ministership. Zawain argued that Maliki would show more flexibility than Jafari in resolving political problems. In keeping with comments from Sadrist leaders themselves, Zawain offered that Sadrists within the UIA supported the selection of Maliki. Zawain predicted that choosing the heads of the ministries would take one to one and a half months. -------------- SOUTH CENTRAL SCIRI REPS WELCOME RESOLUTION -------------- ¶5. (C) South Central representatives of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI, which is a constituent party of the UIA) welcomed the selection of Maliki as Prime Minister. Babil Deputy Governor Hasoon Ali Hasoon was particularly pleased that a Babil native had been chosen and highlighted his "long history of patriotic struggle against Saddam's regime." Similarly, Wasit SCIRI head Ahmed Al-Hakim praised the role of the Marja'iya in Najaf in brokering a face-saving compromise for all elements of the UIA. In Najaf, Provincial Council Deputy Chairman Shaykh Khalid Al-Noumani said he would have preferred Ali Al-Adeen as the alternative to Jafari, but was pleased that the UIA was able to solve the problem independently. ¶6. (C) None of the SCIRI officials contacted by REO staff expected significant changes on substantive issues as a result of Maliki's selection. Deputy Governor Hasoon, who described Jafari and Maliki as "two sides of the same coin," placed the unity of the UIA and its governing program ahead of specific personalities. Wasit's Al-Hakim particularly welcomed Maliki's reputation as a forceful negotiator and administrator, and in a pointed jab at Jafari, described Maliki "as a man who liked to do more than talk." -------------- INDEPENDENT ISLAMISTS VIEW MALIKI FAVORABLY -------------- ¶7. (C) Independent Islamists in the region, all of whom spoke very favorably of Maliki. Dr. Abdul Hussein Al-Mousawi, the Najaf Provincial Council Chairman, offered that Maliki will have "a much stronger and more stable basis of support in the CoR than Jafari would have had" (although he did not offer an HILLAH 00000072 002.2 OF 002 explanation as to why this would be the case). ¶8. (SBU) Abdul Ali Yaseen Mohammed Al-Yasseri, the Deputy Chairman of the Karbala Provincial Council, said "this nomination might not please everyone but the new government will get quick approval from the CoR." Al-Yasseri also described Maliki as a "patriot" who had fought against Saddam Hussein. Adnan Abid Al-Turki, a journalist for Al-Fayhaa newspaper, stated that the UIA has succeeded because changing the characters has nothing to do with their program -- the UIA program will still be accomplished, whether it is Jafari or Maliki in the Prime Minister's position. -------------- -------------- SOME ALLAWI LIST MEMBERS SEE BLOW TO NATIONAL UNITY GOVT. -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Two CoR members from the National Iraqi List (NIL, a largely secular list led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi) and the Iraqi National Accord party (Allawi's party, which is part of the NIL) from South Central Iraq greeted the end of the political stalemate with resignation. Shaykh Jamal Al-Batik, a CoR member from Wasit, said he would have preferred Jafari or Adil Abd Al-Mehdi (of SCIRI) instead of Maliki, primarily because of Maliki's reputation as a tough and inflexible leader. Shaykh Sa'ad Safouk, a CoR member from Karbala, interpreted Maliki's selection as a further blow to the Allawi alliance's wish for a national unity government, and criticized Maliki as "another face of Jafari, but more extreme." ¶10. (SBU) An Iraqi National Accord (INA) member from Babil, Sabah Allawi, was more neutral on the selection of Maliki, stating, "our opinion in the INA is not against or with Al-Maliki. We will support the PM as long as he applies the constitution." He added that he and his colleagues would not pass judgment on Maliki until the government is formed and it is tested. -------------- -------------- BEYOND THE PARTIES: OTHER SECULARISTS WITH MIXED VIEWS OF MALIKI -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The REO contacted five secular leaders who are not currently members of political parties or office holders. Some see Maliki as an unknown quantity. Two of the secular leaders said that there is not much difference between Maliki and Jafari, with one of these two offering, grudgingly, that Maliki is something of an improvement over Jafari. Two of the five said they, or local residents in general, were glad that there had been major progress in forming a government, after the long delay. ¶12. (C) Eltefat Al-Kabiee, a woman who works as a lawyer with the Najaf Human Rights Center, reasoned that Iraqis should withhold judgment on Maliki's abilities as Prime Minister until they have the opportunity to see him perform. A journalist from Karbala said people there wanted Jafari to remain the nominee given that he is from Karbala, but that residents do not have any "objection" to Maliki. ¶13. (C) Taking a less charitable view of the new Prime Minister-designate, a secular journalist from Wasit declared, "this nomination accomplished nothing. Al-Maliki is only another face of Al-Jafari because he is the number two in the Da'wa party." Amal Al-Rubaiee, the head of the Karbala Family Center (a women's rights organization),stated that there is not much difference between Jafari and Maliki, "but with Al-Jafari people had zero hope and now about thirty percent [have] hope in solving their daily difficulties." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) There have been no protests or violence in the heavily Shi'a South Central region in response to the selection of Maliki, and none of the REO's contacts predicted any. This is largely due to fact that all parts of the UIA, including the Sadrists, can live with Maliki as part of the broader bargain over senior CoR leadership, and eventually, cabinet positions. Regardless of their opinion of Maliki, most of those contacted seemed glad to see the fight over the selection of the Prime Minister come to an end, so that the political parties in the CoR can move towards the completion of the formation of the government. END COMMENT. FONTENEAU