WASIT: SUWERAH SHAYKH ON RECONSTRUCTION, ELECTIONS, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000067

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: WASIT: SUWERAH SHAYKH ON RECONSTRUCTION, ELECTIONS, AND
SADRISTS


CLASSIFIED BY: Alfred Fonteneau, Regional Coordinator, REO
Hillah, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY. Prince Sa'ad Mizher Al-Sumarmed, a prominent
tribal figure in the Suwerah area of Northwest Wasit, predicted
an increase in Sadrist influence when provincial elections are
held after the formation of the national government in Baghdad.
Without U.S. backing and security guarantees, Al-Sumarmed
asserted, secular groups would face a very difficult road in
upcoming provincial elections. Al-Sumarmed also accused the
Wasit provincial government in Al-Kut of bias against the
Northern region of the province when allocating resources.
Al-Sumarmed was skeptical of efforts by the central government
in Baghdad to reach out to tribal heads in the region, asserting
that most tribal leaders were more interested in securing their
share of money and projects from the provincial government and
did not share a common interest in the security of the province
as a whole. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Al-Sumarmed, a close relative of former Iraqi National
Accord TNA member Shaykh Ma'ad Al-Sumarmed and a longtime
supporter of the U.S. and Coalition presence in the province,
said that he had declined an invitation from Interior Minister
Bayan Jabr to a meeting of prominent tribal representatives in
Baghdad. Al-Sumarmed felt that tribal heads in Wasit would not
be able to ensure security in the region, as they were too
focused on gaining the favor of the national and provincial
governments.

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PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: EXPECT STRONG SADRIST PERFORMANCE
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3. (C) Al-Sumarmed expected a strong performance by Sadrist
candidates in provincial elections, regardless of when they are
held. He asserted that the Sadrists had gained strength in the
Suwerah area over the past year, and were much more assertive
and willing to use violence than before. The mayor of Suwerah,
according to Al-Sumarmed, now openly supports the Sadrists,
where previously he has been neutral.


4. (C) Violent intimidation, plus the tendency of rural Shi'a
voters to listen exclusively to the advice of religious
authorities, presents almost insurmountable challenges to
secular groups in Northern and Northwest Wasit, Al-Sumarmed
said. Only with U.S. support and security guarantees, would
secular parties be able to gain support. In his opinion, a rapid
withdrawal of Coalition Forces from Iraq would lead to civil
war.

5.(C) Al-Sumarmed complained vigorously of bias against
Northwestern Wasit. Suwerah, he asserted, as the largest town in
the area, suffers because of its mixed Sunni-Shi'a population
and its proximity to Baghdad. The Provincial Council (PC) in
Al-Kut largely ignores the area when planning its reconstruction
budget, and the city has no representation on the PC. NOTE.
Al-Sumarmed is also involved in the construction business, and
he has repeatedly complained to REO staff about difficulties in
securing contracts. END NOTE.


6. (C) COMMENT. Al-Sumarmed's comments, particularly the call
for U.S. support, are telling indicators of the challenges that
secular groups face in Wasit. Al-Sumarmed's open support for
U.S. and Coalition forces has further served to marginalize him
amongst Wasit tribal leaders. His complaints about the
relationship between Suwerah and the provincial capital in
Al-Kut, however, accurately reflect the dominance of the
overwhelmingly Shi'a south of the province over the mixed
Sunni-Shi'a areas bordering on Baghdad. COMMENT.

FONTENEAU