DIWANIYAH DAWA REP CAUTIONS AGAINST JAFARI'S REMOVAL; FEARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000040 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/9/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KISL IZ SUBJECT: DIWANIYAH DAWA REP CAUTIONS AGAINST JAFARI'S REMOVAL; FEARS POSSIBLE SHI'A ON SHI'A CIVIL WAR CLASSIFIED BY: ALFRED FONTENEAU, REGIONAL COORDINATOR, REO, AL-HILLAH, STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A Diwaniyah Islamic Dawa Party official elected to the Council of Representatives (CoR) from the province's United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) slate cautioned against replacing Ibrahim Jafari as the UIA nominee for prime minister in the new Iraqi government. The parliamentarian, who is reportedly close to Jafari, warned that such a move would only benefit Iran, Sunni terrorists, and "those who hate democracy," and spur an intra-Shi'a civil war. Further, he said, the U.S. would be blamed for making the change, and would then be considered by Shi'a as standing with the terrorists. End summary. ¶2. (C) REO staff met March 6 with Dr. Jaber Abdul Kadhum Al-Zaiyadi at the Sadrain (Two Sadrs) Cultural Center, the Diwaniyah office of the Dawa Party. Al-Zaiyadi, who is reportedly close to current Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari, was elected to the CoR from the second position on the Diwaniyah UIA slate. Al-Zaiyadi was effusive in his praise of the U.S. for bringing democracy to Iraq, but quickly and repeatedly warned REO staff that Jafari must not be replaced as the UIA's prime minister nominee. Such an action, which he maintained could only be accomplished by the U.S., would cripple the nascent Iraqi democracy and add an intra-Shi'a civil war to an already extant sectarian war in Iraq. ¶3. (C) Al-Zaiyadi argued that replacing Jafari would pave the way for a national unity government that would necessarily include "those who hate democracy: Baathists, Saddamists, and Takfiris." Such a government, he argued, would destroy democracy, and would be the work of the U.S. "The thing we're totally afraid of, the thing that will leave us completely frustrated and disappointed, is if we see the U.S. government work against democracy," Al-Zaiyadi avowed. ¶4. (C) Further, replacing Jafari, presumably with Adel Abdul Mehdi, a senior leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI),would fracture the UIA and lead to an intra-Shi'a civil war, according to the official. Al-Zaiyadi maintained that replacing Jafari with Mehdi would spark a conflict between Moqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Militia, which he said would remain loyal to Jafari, and the Badr Organization, which would back Mehdi. The result, the representative predicted, would be a war between Shi'a militias. ¶4. (C) Al-Zaiyadi described the current situation in Iraq as a one-sided civil war, in which Sunni terrorists were waging war on the Shi'a. He said that the U.S. was to blame for this. "The U.S. government controls the security file over all of Iraq," he explained. "Who's responsible for the civil war, since you hold the security file?" Al-Zaiyadi particularly criticized Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad's recent public statements on the Iraqi security forces for crippling Iraqi democracy and empowering terrorists. ¶5. (C) Comment: Al-Zaiyadi, a Dawa partisan and Jafari loyalist, has an obvious interest in backing Jafari and predicting dire consequences if Jafari's nomination fails, either within the UIA or before the CoR. But while his motivations for backing Jafari are political, it is likely he is being honest when arguing that Iraqis, even those not especially fond of Jafari, will blame the U.S. for undue interference should Jafari be replaced, regardless of the circumstances. In addition, his comments assigning blame to the U.S. for widespread sectarian violence and the uncertain security situation in Iraq are frequently voiced by REO contacts, and reflects a view held by many Iraqis in the South Central region. End comment. ¶6. (C) Biographical information: Dr. Jaber Abdul Kadhum Salman Al-Zaiyadi is a member of the Al-Zaiyadi tribe. He was born in Daghgara, Diwaniyah Province, on July 1, 1947. He is married and has six sons and three daughters. He joined the Dawa Party in ¶1968. He earned a BA in theology from Baghdad University in ¶1972. In 1973, he was imprisoned twice and tortured. He left Iraq for Iran in 1974. After two years in Iran, he moved to Cairo where he earned a degree from the Islamic and Arab Research Institute of Cairo University in 1985. He moved around the Arab world, he said, and lived for a few years in the U.S., before settling in Beirut, Lebanon, in 1994. He earned a master's degree in art and the humanities from Beirut University in 1995. He returned to Iraq in 2003, earned his doctorate in democracy and human rights from the Education College of Qadisiyah University, and lectures there now in the same college. FONTENEAU