DIWANIYAH DAWA REP CAUTIONS AGAINST JAFARI'S REMOVAL; FEARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000040

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/9/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KISL IZ
SUBJECT: DIWANIYAH DAWA REP CAUTIONS AGAINST JAFARI'S REMOVAL; FEARS
POSSIBLE SHI'A ON SHI'A CIVIL WAR


CLASSIFIED BY: ALFRED FONTENEAU, REGIONAL COORDINATOR, REO,
AL-HILLAH, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: A Diwaniyah Islamic Dawa Party official elected
to the Council of Representatives (CoR) from the province's
United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) slate cautioned against replacing
Ibrahim Jafari as the UIA nominee for prime minister in the new
Iraqi government. The parliamentarian, who is reportedly close
to Jafari, warned that such a move would only benefit Iran,
Sunni terrorists, and "those who hate democracy," and spur an
intra-Shi'a civil war. Further, he said, the U.S. would be
blamed for making the change, and would then be considered by
Shi'a as standing with the terrorists. End summary.


2. (C) REO staff met March 6 with Dr. Jaber Abdul Kadhum
Al-Zaiyadi at the Sadrain (Two Sadrs) Cultural Center, the
Diwaniyah office of the Dawa Party. Al-Zaiyadi, who is
reportedly close to current Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari, was
elected to the CoR from the second position on the Diwaniyah UIA
slate. Al-Zaiyadi was effusive in his praise of the U.S. for
bringing democracy to Iraq, but quickly and repeatedly warned
REO staff that Jafari must not be replaced as the UIA's prime
minister nominee. Such an action, which he maintained could only
be accomplished by the U.S., would cripple the nascent Iraqi
democracy and add an intra-Shi'a civil war to an already extant
sectarian war in Iraq.


3. (C) Al-Zaiyadi argued that replacing Jafari would pave the
way for a national unity government that would necessarily
include "those who hate democracy: Baathists, Saddamists, and
Takfiris." Such a government, he argued, would destroy
democracy, and would be the work of the U.S. "The thing we're
totally afraid of, the thing that will leave us completely
frustrated and disappointed, is if we see the U.S. government
work against democracy," Al-Zaiyadi avowed.


4. (C) Further, replacing Jafari, presumably with Adel Abdul
Mehdi, a senior leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI),would fracture the UIA and lead to
an intra-Shi'a civil war, according to the official. Al-Zaiyadi
maintained that replacing Jafari with Mehdi would spark a
conflict between Moqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Militia, which he said
would remain loyal to Jafari, and the Badr Organization, which
would back Mehdi. The result, the representative predicted,
would be a war between Shi'a militias.


4. (C) Al-Zaiyadi described the current situation in Iraq as a
one-sided civil war, in which Sunni terrorists were waging war
on the Shi'a. He said that the U.S. was to blame for this. "The
U.S. government controls the security file over all of Iraq," he
explained. "Who's responsible for the civil war, since you hold
the security file?" Al-Zaiyadi particularly criticized
Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad's recent public statements on the
Iraqi security forces for crippling Iraqi democracy and
empowering terrorists.


5. (C) Comment: Al-Zaiyadi, a Dawa partisan and Jafari loyalist,
has an obvious interest in backing Jafari and predicting dire
consequences if Jafari's nomination fails, either within the UIA
or before the CoR. But while his motivations for backing Jafari
are political, it is likely he is being honest when arguing that
Iraqis, even those not especially fond of Jafari, will blame the
U.S. for undue interference should Jafari be replaced,
regardless of the circumstances. In addition, his comments
assigning blame to the U.S. for widespread sectarian violence
and the uncertain security situation in Iraq are frequently
voiced by REO contacts, and reflects a view held by many Iraqis
in the South Central region. End comment.


6. (C) Biographical information: Dr. Jaber Abdul Kadhum Salman
Al-Zaiyadi is a member of the Al-Zaiyadi tribe. He was born in
Daghgara, Diwaniyah Province, on July 1, 1947. He is married and
has six sons and three daughters. He joined the Dawa Party in

1968. He earned a BA in theology from Baghdad University in

1972. In 1973, he was imprisoned twice and tortured. He left
Iraq for Iran in 1974. After two years in Iran, he moved to
Cairo where he earned a degree from the Islamic and Arab
Research Institute of Cairo University in 1985. He moved around
the Arab world, he said, and lived for a few years in the U.S.,
before settling in Beirut, Lebanon, in 1994. He earned a
master's degree in art and the humanities from Beirut University
in 1995. He returned to Iraq in 2003, earned his doctorate in
democracy and human rights from the Education College of
Qadisiyah University, and lectures there now in the same college.

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