TIMELINE ACCEPTABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL OF COALTION FORCES, SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000142 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PREL IZ SUBJECT: TIMELINE ACCEPTABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL OF COALTION FORCES, SAYS SADR CLASSIFIED BY: Charles Hunter, Regional Coordinator, REO Hillah, State. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Muqtada Al-Sadr, in his most recent Friday sermon, demanded the release of his recently detained associates and called on coalition forces (CF) to leave Iraq. He also derided the national government as ineffective and fragile, but touted the political process as a peaceful form of warfare and closed his sermon with a call for unity between Iraqis and the Iraqi army. Interestingly he seems to be softening his earlier demands for immediate CF withdrawal, and now would consider a timeline drawn up by the Council of Representatives (COR) an acceptable resolution to the issue. Either way, he clearly hopes to position himself to benefit politically from the eventual departure of foreign troops. End summary. -------------- THE FAITHFUL GATHER -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In numbers approaching 1500 a crowd of Sadr faithful formed in Kufa mosque in Najaf on September 22 to hear Muqtada Al-Sadr deliver the Friday sermon. The throng included a number of clerics loyal to Sadr and Jaysh Al-Mahdi (JAM) operatives; Saheeb Al-Ameri, head of Allah's Martyrs and noted financier of JAM activities, was in attendance as well. Security was understandably tight and of a distinctly military cast. Adorned in bulletproof vests and armed, the security forces formed a tight cordon around Sadr and the mosque. Many of the faithful wore green headbands as a show of support for their provocative leader. ¶3. (SBU) Sadr insisted to his followers that coalition forces were on a crusade to dismantle his organization piece by piece. The arrest of 12 of his associates, including Sheikh Salah Al-'Ubaidi in Najaf, over the previous 48 hours had Sadr demanding their release and promising to continue doing so weekly until they were free from what he termed unlawful detention. He also called for mass demonstrations in protest of the arrests, which he considers a ruse by the "vicious trinity" (CF, the Iraqi army, and the national government) to use the pretext of a war on terror to apply pressure to the Sadrist movement. -------------- -------------- -------------- IRAQI UNITY AND TIMETABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Throughout the nearly hour-long sermon Sadr repeated his call for the withdrawal of "occupation" forces. He asserted that that national government has a responsibility to set a timetable for withdrawal, and that such a schedule determined by the COR would be an acceptable, if less than ideal, way to deal with the current state of affairs. Unfortunately, he said, the Baghdad government is weak, fragile and possibly incapable of making such a demand. He went on to add that the central leadership, which should be helping Iraqis live without the threat of sectarian violence, "cannot even provide fundamental services to the people so that they might live peacefully as a united country." Playing up his own participation in the political process, Sadr stressed that although the last national election was held during a time of occupation, he had not objected to it and had even advocated participation for the sake of Iraqi unity. "We (Iraqis) need peaceful and political warfare," he proclaimed, warning against clashes with "brothers" in the Iraqi army who are clearly under the evil sway of "occupiers." ¶5. (C) Comment: Sadr continues to play both sides of the fence, in one breath describing the political process as broken and in the next urging his followers to participate. The self-styled populist stands to benefit like few others from an enfeebled national government. His Jaysh Al-Mahdi thrives on political weakness and in fact uses violence daily to ensure a lack of coherence and effectiveness on the provincial level. Likewise his sermons are rarely for the exclusive consumption of worshippers inside Kufa mosque. What is particularly noteworthy in his recent preaching is his call for a timeline for CF withdrawal: before May 2006 he was demanding that foreign troops leave immediately. Irrespective of the timing it is clear, and ironic, that he is looking to inherit a political throne that Coalition Forces would gradually turn over and secure while his own JAM is creating chaos. End comment. HUNTER