SECURITY UPDATE SUMMARY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL IRAQ

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000127

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MARR PTER KISL IZ
SUBJECT: SECURITY UPDATE SUMMARY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL IRAQ


HILLAH 00000127 001.2 OF 002


SENSITIVE, BUT UNCLASSIFIED


1. (SBU) This cable covers trends and significant events that
affect security in the five South Central provinces of Iraq.
Items are taken from the local press or are public knowledge in
the region (Najaf, Karbala, Qadisiyah, Babil, and Wasit
provinces).

Najaf Province
--------------

2 (SBU) As of July 28, Najaf is calm, but tense due to two
security threats: 1) a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive
Device (VBIED) threat within the city; and 2) continued
demonstrations, largely by Sadrists, protesting Prime Minister
Malicki's visit to the United States, and the situation in
Lebanon.


3. (SBU) The press has reported that fifteen VBIEDs (cars
outfitted with explosives) may have been assembled in Najaf,
presumably by Al Qaeda. The actual number of VBIEDs may have
been half of that. Explosions on July 6 and July 18 killed over
eighty locals. Three to four VBIEDs may still be at large in
Najaf. In the last two weeks, Iraqi Police and Army
checkpoints have multiplied and checks are stricter. Cars with
out-of-province license plates find it very difficult to enter
the city. The Provincial Council is considering a plan to dig
an anti-vehicle ditch around all of Najaf in order to force all
vehicles to enter through checkpoints.


4. (SBU) Governor Al-Taee and the Provincial Council fired
Police Chief Abbass Al M'adal this week out of frustration over
the inability of provincial security forces to end car bomb
attacks in Najaf. The SCIRI-dominated Provincial Council is
said to want to exert additional direct control over police
deployments. All parties are aware that the two bombings with
mass casualties occurred in Kufa, close to radical cleric
Muqtada Al-Sadr's residence. Mahdi Militia maintain a close
watch over the area and attacks in Kufa could easily escalate
into armed confrontations between Sadr militia units and the
largely Badr-controlled police.


5. (SBU) Despite the frequent demonstrations and two
large-scale VBIED attacks, Najaf remains relatively stable. The
economy has picked up due to extensive public and private
construction.

Karbala Province
--------------


6. (SBU) Public protests by the Al-Hassani/Sarkhi militia (a
competitor to the Mahdi Militia) appear to have ended last week.
For several weeks, militia members had gathered on Thursday
afternoons to protest the presence of an Iranian Consulate in
Karbala (Al-Hassani is still stinging after an Iranian
television documentary questioned his religious credentials) and
also to demand a share of the donations to Karbala's major
shrines. These marches were a potential flashpoint.


7. (SBU) However, a new cause for worry surfaced on July 25
when a spokesman for Karbala Sadrist mosque head Sheikh Fadhil
Al-Sharii broadcast by loudspeaker a message supposedly
emanating from the Sunni community in Samarra. The Sunni
message, as relayed by the Sarists, was a rejection of any
attempt by Shi'a militia to enter Samarra and rebuild the sacred
shrine. If true, this would represent the first time the
Sunni community has publicly rejected Moqtada al-Sadr's
high-profile campaign to recruit workers and guards for
re-building the shrine.

Diwaniyah (Qadisiyah) Province
--------------


8. (SBU) The security situation deteriorated over the last two
weeks. Diwaniyah, a quiet provincial capital several months
ago, has become a center of unrest and a source of concern
across the region. Camp Echo, just outside Diwaniyah, took
frequent indirect fire over the past week, largely coming from
Sadrist neighborhoods on Diwaniyah's north side. Coalition
Forces convoys are under increased threat from lethal
Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP) attacks. On July 26, an
Iraqi Security Forces patrol came under intense fire within the
city. Reportedly, there was considerable collateral damage from
errant militia gunfire. On July 27, an Explosively Formed
Projectile (EFP) attack on an El Salvadoran convoy just one
hundred meters from a police checkpoint killed one soldier and
severely wounded another.


9. (SBU) Much of the unrest stems from provincial leadership
that has avoided confrontation with the militias controlling
Diwaniyah's poorer neighborhoods and played to the street in

HILLAH 00000127 002.2 OF 002


echoing Sadrist harsh anti-American and anti-Coalition Forces
rhetoric. However, there are signs that Governor Hamza is
back-pedaling on his resistance to the "occupying forces," his
habitual term for Camp Echo. This week, he lifted his "no go"
order to Coalition Forces on entering Diwaniyah and after a
hiatus of over a month, and agreed to travel to REO Al-Hillah to
resume regular PRDC meetings.


10. (SBU) In the last several days, the Governor received an
unprecedented personal envoy from Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Local
press reported that the two spoke about the security situation
and the need for public unity to fight terrorism. Direct
intervention by Ayatollah Sistani in governmental or security
affairs is rare and highlights the degree of regional concern
over Diwaniyah's problems.


11. (SBU) Nonetheless, provincial security is not yet
improving. For example, the press reported on July 24 that two
more ex-Baathists were assassinated overnight, the latest in a
steady stream of executions by either the Sadr or Badr militias.
The Iraqi police have shown little cooperation in pursuing
militia members who tortured and killed the chief Iraqi engineer
for the Army Corps of Engineers office at Camp Echo.

Babil Province
--------------


12. (SBU) Communities in the northern part of the province were
surprised by a pitched Mahdi Militia assault on an Iraqi police
station in Mussayib last week. Coalition forces killed fifteen
terrorists in a brief, but intense firefight. On July 28, a
Sadrist gunman was killed by a US Army patrol close to the main
Sadr mosque in downtown Hillah. The Governor and a Sadrist
Provincial Council member reportedly talked down militia members
from assembling and mounting an attack, and a complete curfew
was imposed on the city for most of the day, including during
Friday prayers.
MEURS