PRD AND "ALTERNATIVA" PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HERMOSILLO 000036 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/MEX; EMBASSY MEXICO FOR POL, ECON, MCCA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ENRG SNAR MX SUBJECT: PRD AND "ALTERNATIVA" PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN IN SONORA HERMOSILLO 00000036 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. PRD presidential candidate Lopez Obrador made his first official campaign swing through Sonora state January ¶27. His visit culminated in political rally in Hermosillo, which was well attended, but not as large as claimed. He made 32 promises to Sonoran voters - local media focused on his plan to free up the Mexican Army to fight organized drug trafficking, which he identified as a "notorious" problem in Sonora. "Alternativa" presidential candidate Patricia Mercado also campaigned in Sonora, successfully devoting most of her time to media interviews, and a meeting with a small University of Sonora (UNISON) group. Relations with the U.S. did not figure largely in the campaigning of either candidate, although both mentioned immigration policy and their desire for good relations with the United States. End Summary. AMLO'S PROMISES TO SONORA ¶2. (U) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO),presidential candidate of the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD), campaigned in Sonora state on January 27. He visited Cananea, but the key event was a rally in Hermosillo. In an hour-long speech before an enthusiastic crowd in the state capital, AMLO made 32 promises to the people of Sonora that he said he would implement if elected President. He publicly signed the list to wrap up the speech. Local media focused on AMLO's statement that the presence of narcotics-related organized crime in Sonora was "evident and notorious," and on his promise to seek changes in the Constitution so that the Mexican Army could be more involved in fighting drug trafficking. SEEKS MUTUAL RESPECT AND COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. ¶3. (U) AMLO's only direct reference in his stump speech to the United States was to a plan to convert the 45 Mexican consulates in the U.S. into centers of "legal protection" for Mexicans living and working there. In an earlier press interview, however, he said that he would try to reduce immigration to the U.S. by reviving the Mexican economy. He stressed that he was not anti-business, and that one of his priorities would be to help businesses to generate jobs and avoid bankruptcy. He also said he would propose an agreement of "mutual respect and cooperation" to the U.S. government and, separately, discuss how to bring about legalization of the status of millions of Mexicans who were working in the U.S. out of necessity. One promise in AMLO's speech which was among the most applauded was that he will ensure construction of a high-speed "bullet" train from Mexico City to Nogales. ¶4. (U) Other successful applause lines AMLO used in his Hermosillo speech included promises to reduce gasoline and electricity prices, to guarantee minimum wages that stayed ahead of inflation, and to provide monthly food allowances and special pensions for the elderly and the handicapped. His ideas for financing these programs included tough anti-corruption enforcement, a reduction in the overall size of government, cutting the salaries of ministers and senior bureaucrats, and adjusting the terms paid on the national debt. AMLO said he would restructure the tax system radically and even abolish the term "tax". He expressed confidence that Mexicans, once they saw how fair the new system was, would be happy to pay "contributions." SIZE MATTERS? ¶5. (SBU) Experienced observers said that AMLO drew as large a crowd in Hermosillo as Vicente Fox did in the last presidential campaign. The PRD organizers claimed attendance of ten thousand, and this figure was repeated by Imparcial, Hermosillo's leading newspaper, which also identified the majority of participants as students. Other local newspapers, while giving AMLO prominent and largely uncritical coverage, put the crowd size at four and a half thousand. Consulate officials who covered the political gathering do not believe that more than two and a half thousand people were present, most arriving on 21 buses bearing "delegations" from locations around Sonora. Most participants - although clearly enthusiastic about the candidate - appeared to be largely middle-aged agriculture and maquila workers and their families who were brought in for the event. PATRICIA MERCADO, "ALTERNATIVA" CANDIDATE ALSO IN SONORA ¶6. (U) Patricia Mercado Castro, presidential candidate of the new, small "Alternativa" Social Democratic and Rural Party (PASC),also campaigned in Sonora, visiting Hermosillo, Obregon and Magdalena. She concentrated on media interviews, spending the entire morning of January 27 in the Hermosillo Sanborn restaurant giving one-on-one time to radio and print HERMOSILLO 00000036 002.2 OF 002 journalists, talking to local PASC organizers, and greeting members of the public who approached her. Mercado Castro later met with the Rector of the University of Sonora and had a detailed exchange with a group of about 150 UNISON students and faculty for 90 minutes. OPENING ENERGY SECTOR TO "MIXED" INVESTMENT AND OTHER IDEAS ¶7. (U) Mercado Castro said that Mexico is "decaying" and is in urgent need of reforms, including giving priority to education, science and technology, ending family violence, and fighting narcotics trafficking and violence. On this last, she said the current approach of the Mexican government to fighting narcotics was "ineffective and obsolete," and unfairly penalized poor cultivators and consumers. She expressed support for legalization of "bland" drugs like marijuana (but definitely not cocaine or amphetamines). Other themes she discussed were support for families, women, and gay marriage and her opposition to economic monopolies, public and private. She said that she would open up the oil, gas and electric sectors to "mixed" investment, and would back construction of infrastructure in rural Mexico in order to connect small towns and field workers to the wider world. ¶8. (U) Mercado Castro said Mexico needed deeper discussion of the issues facing the country, and specifically added that AMLO should be open to dialogue on "ideas of the Mexican Left," which are more varied than what he represents. MERCADO CASTRO ALSO BACKS GOOD U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS ¶9. (U) The "Alternativa" candidate said that she believed U.S. immigration policy is "oppressive," but emphasized that she was not closed to talks with the United States and knew that good relations with the U.S. were necessary. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: AMLO drew the lion's share of media attention with his rally in Hermosillo, but the press - especially local TV and radio stations - were also generous in covering Mercado Castro, who appeared to be running a smart campaign for someone with few resources. She ensured that she was interviewed in depth on television, while AMLO was featured in reportage showing the crowd and using a few sound bites from his speech. Overall coverage stuck in large measure to what the candidates said and placed both of them in a favorable light. Editorial comment on the visits of the candidates has been scant. ¶11. (SBU) In the 2000 presidential election, Sonora voters went 51 percent for the winning National Action Party (PAN) candidate Vicente Fox (PAN),and gave the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and PRD candidates respectively almost 34 percent and 13 percent. For what it is worth -- which is probably not much given the small, unscientific sample and the stage of the election campaign -- an Imparcial poll last week of local voters found AMLO (25 percent) behind PAN's Felipe Calderon (32.1 percent) in the overall standing. PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo (10.4 percent) came in third. End Comment. CLARKE