SEPTEMBER GAERC - FINNISH PRESIDENCY VIEWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000936 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV UN EU YI SR BO MK SU CG IS LE IR, IZ, UP, KPAL, FI SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER GAERC - FINNISH PRESIDENCY VIEWS REF: A. STATE 151189 ¶B. THOME-ROBINSON E-MAILS 11-12 SEPT 06 Classified By: PolChief Gregory Thome, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) PolChief, EU Unit Chief and visiting Finland Deskoff delivered subject demarche to Finnish EU Correspondent Jarno Syrjala Sept. 13. Syrjala welcomed our input and offered the following notable responses: ¶2. (C) SUDAN/DARFUR: Syrjala expressed pessimism regarding the situation on the ground and noted that keeping the AMIS effort on track in the face of increasing antagonism from Khartoum will become "the big headache for the rest of (the Finnish) presidency." EU Special Rep Pekka Haavisto (a Finn) has just returned from Sudan and, based on his report, High Rep Solana will provide recommendations to the ministers. However, next steps for the EU appear very unclear, given that Haavisto was able to make very little progress in moving the GOS to accept a UN re-hatting of the AMIS mission. Unless Khartoum changes its stance dramatically, some EU members are beginning to float the idea of raising the possibility of moving toward UN sanctions and possibly even indictments at the ICC (Germany, in particular, appears to support this option, Syrjala said). As for the future of the operation, there is EU money from the African Peace Facility (APF) to support AMIS through the end of October, and thereafter national British and Dutch contributions will keep it afloat through year's end (see also ref b). Thereafter, however, several member states are uneasy about supporting the mission well into 2007 without the UN re-hatting. In the shorter term, Syrjala said, expect the GAERC to issue a strong statement in support of UNSCR 1706; in addition, the Finns will seek to hold a troika (Council, Commission, Finland, Germany) format meeting with the Sudanese during UN Week to express their concerns. ¶3. (C) IRAN: Solana's initial conversations with Larijani did not prompt tremendous optimism within the EU, but the mantra remains "in Javier we trust," Syrjala said. He again emphasized that the Solana-Larijani meetings are "clarifications," not "negotiations," and that this had been made very clear to the Iranians. In response to our specific question, Syrjala said that the EU3 remain firmly committed to UNSC sanctions should Tehran refuse the path of peaceful negotiation and fail to halt its enrichment program, and that all 22 other member states fully support this. However, he added, problems could emerge if the US and the EU are unable to convince China and Russia to accept sanctions. While many member states would support "unilateral" EU and US sanctions against Iran, Syrjala opined, other MS might not. The Finns received "somewhat encouraging" signs from Moscow during a bilateral political directors' meeting last week, Syrjala reported, and it appears "Solana has been doing some effective diplomacy" with the Russians. However, China remains more problematic. Again, looking toward the GAERC, Syrjala said that the conclusion issued -- and hence next steps -- on Iran will depend largely on what Solana reports from his next meeting with Larijani. ¶4. (C) ISRAEL-PALESTINE: Syrjala assured us that the EU and the US remain united in demanding that any PA national unity government must explicitly accept the Quartet's principles. The burden falls to Hamas to accept the three main conditions that have been well established by the international community, he said. FM Errki Tuomioja spoke Sept. 12 to President Abbas and reported that he remained upbeat, Syrjala said, but expressed some concern that Abbas may be "promising too much too fast," given Hamas' poor track record this far. In the meantime, the EU will need to extend the Temporary International Mechanism to address the humanitarian situation. HYATT