FINNISH U/S OFFERS UPDATE ON EU PRESIDENCY'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000701 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV MOPS EUN FI SUBJECT: FINNISH U/S OFFERS UPDATE ON EU PRESIDENCY'S RESPONSE TO MIDDLE EAST CRISIS REF: A. HELSINKI 680 ¶B. HELSINKI 697 Classified By: A/DCM GREGORY THOME FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The GOF welcomes Israel's announcement that it could eventually accept NATO peacekeepers in Lebanon. However, U/S for Political Affairs Lyra suggested that an EU- or UN-led force -- perhaps with NATO support under Berlin Plus arrangements -- would be better than a strictly NATO-led mission, both because it would avoid the impression in the region of heavy US involvement and because key players such as France would be more willing to participate. Lyra also emphasized that a robust UN mandate for the mission would be crucial, although he predicted that including a strong call for international troops to enforce UN Resolution 1559 could prove "problematic." When and if an international force is mustered, the GOF is committed to providing a significant troop contribution. Finland also welcomes the Secretary's trip and the subsequent Rome Lebanon Core Group meetings, after which FM Tuomioja will travel to the Middle East. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador Ware and A/DCM met July 24 with Markus Lyra, MFA Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, for an update on the Finnish EU Presidency's response to the crisis in the Middle East. Lyra said that the GOF is pleased with Israel's announcement that it would accept a NATO mission in Southern Lebanon. He acknowledged that circumstances on the ground did yet permit a peacekeeping or peace enforcement mission; however, he expressed the hope that progress could be made toward a ceasefire and the mustering of an international force shortly after Secretary Rice's trip to the region and the meeting of the Lebanon Core Group in Rome. ¶3. (C) Turning to the specifics of a potential peace mission, Lyra suggested that while the GOF and the EU would certainly not rule out a NATO lead, it might pose some political difficulties. First, perceptions in the Middle East (be they right or wrong) associate NATO directly with the US and, as regards Israel, the US is not seen as an honest broker by many Arab states and leaders, he said. Second, some EU member states -- namely France, Lyra predicted -- are likely to oppose a NATO force and press strongly for an EU-hatted mission. The best way to satisfy key players like France and Israel, while also ensuring the best operational capacity, might be an EU interpositional force backed by NATO airlift and other logistical support, operating under the Berlin Plus series of agreements, he concluded. ¶4. (C) Lyra also made clear that the EU would expect a strong UN mandate for any international force in Lebanon. The Ambassador acknowledged this, but also suggested that such a UN mandate might have to include specific language empowering the international troops to enforce UN Resolution 1559. Lyra responded by noting that for many EU member states -- and, perhaps, for the UN Security Council -- heavy emphasis on 1559 might prove "problematic." That said, "problematic" does not mean impossible, and there is general agreement within the EU and in much of the wider international community that the failure to disarm Hezbollah and other Lebanese was clearly a major factor in the current crisis, he added. ¶5. (SBU) Finally, Lyra again stated Finland's intention to demonstrate leadership as current EU President by offering as large a contribution as possible to whatever international force ultimately comes together (reftel a). This will require an extraordinary budget request to Parliament, but "that is something we must do," he emphasized. Lyra also confirmed that Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja will travel to Rome July 26 to attend the Lebanon Core Group (LCG) meeting (reftel b). The GOF warmly welcomes Secretary Rice's trip to the region, and Tuomioja looks forward to working with her at the LCG and thereafter to chart a course forward. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Lyra may be correct in pointing out the potential hurdles we may face -- once the time is right -- in pulling together a peace enforcement mission in Lebanon. However, the Finns clearly want to play a leadership role in defusing the Middle East crisis, and we should be able to count on them to assume a pragmatic, "honest broker" stance in moving the EU toward effective participation in whatever mission emerges. Lyra assured the Ambassador that the Embassy has open access to the Foreign Minister and his staff. WARE