FINLAND/EU TROUBLED BY TRANSNISTRIA INDEPENDENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000682 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016 TAGS: OSCE PBTS PREL RS MD FI SUBJECT: FINLAND/EU TROUBLED BY TRANSNISTRIA INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM; WILL RAISE CONCERNS INFORMALLY WITH RUSSIA REF: STATE 115371 CLASSIFIED BY: POLCHIEF GREGORY THOME FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE FINNISH EU PRESIDENCY SHARES THE US PAGE 02 RUEHHEA0682 C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000682 CONCERN THAT TRANSNISTRIA'S PROPOSED INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM CANNOT BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY OR TREATED AS LEGITIMATE. THE GOF FEARS RUSSIA MAY ULTIMATELY SUPPORT THE REFERENDUM'S RESULTS, EVEN THOUGH DOING SO WILL UNDERMINE MOSCOW'S STATED SUPPORT OF OSCE-AGREED UNDERSTANDINGS ON BORDER INTEGRITY; ITS PUBLIC DENIALS OF TERRITORIAL AMBITIONS IN TRANSNISTRIA; AND EVEN, TANGENTIALLY, ITS ARGUMENTS AGAINST KOSOVOS INDEPENDENCE. THE FINNS AND THE COUNCIL HAVE TACITLY AGREED THAT THE EU SHOULD NOT FORMALLY DEMARCHE MOSCOW ON THE REFERENDUM; RATHER, THE EU AND THE FINNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMIND THE GOR OF THE AWKWARD POSITION IT RISKS PUTTING ITSELF IN AS PART OF A SERIES OF OTHER DISCUSSIONS (AS THEY DID AT THE JULY 14 PSC TROIKA). END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) POLCHIEF DELIVERED SUBJECT DEMARCHE TO TUULA YRJOLA, COUNSELOR FOR BELORUS, UKRAINE AND MOLDOVA IN THE FINNISH MFA'S UNIT FOR EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA. YRJOLA SAID THAT THE GOF, BOTH NATIONALLY AND IN PAGE 03 RUEHHEA0682 C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000682 ITS CAPACITY AS EU PRESIDENT, SHARED US CONCERNS ABOUT THE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE REFERENDUM ON EVENTUAL UNION WITH RUSSIA THAT THE TRANSNISTRIAN "SUPREME SOVIET" RECENTLY ANNOUNCED. ¶3. (C) THE GOF STRONGLY QUESTIONS RUSSIAN MOTIVES AND THE ROLE MOSCOW HAS PLAYED IN POSSIBLY URGING SMIRNOV AND THE "SUPREME SOVIET" TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THIS INITIATIVE, YRJOLA SAID. AT A MINIMUM, THE REFERENDUM PUTS RUSSIA IN A TREMENDOUSLY AWKWARD AND PROBLEMATIC POSITION. ACCEPTING ITS RESULTS WOULD FLY IN THE FACE OF MOSCOW'S LONG-STATED SUPPORT FOR OSCE-AGREED UNDERSTANDINGS ON BORDER INTEGRITY; MOREOVER, IT WOULD CALL INTO SERIOUS QUESTION THE TRUTHFULNESS OR LEGITIMACY OF RUSSIA'S ALLEGED LACK OF TERRITORIAL AMBITIONS IN TRANSNISTRIA. ONE COULD EVEN ARGUE, SHE OPINED, THAT SUCH SUPPORT WOULD UNDERMINE THE ARGUMENT MOSCOW IS INCREASINGLY PUTTING FORWARD REGARDING KOSOVO'S FINAL STATUS; I.E., THAT INDEPENDENCE WOULD PROVIDE POLITICAL INCENTIVE AND PERHAPS EVEN A LEGAL PAGE 04 RUEHHEA0682 C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000682 BASIS FOR OTHER ETHNIC ENCLAVES (ESPECIALLY IN FROZEN CONFLICTS) TO TAKE UP ARMS OR OTHER ILLEGAL MEANS TO ACHIEVE INDEPENDENCE. ON THE OTHER HAND, YRJOLA CONCLUDED, MOSCOWS REJECTION OF THE TRANSNISTRIA REFERENDUM WOULD SIGNAL A BREAK WITH SMIRNOV SO SHARP AS TO LACK CREDIBILITY. ¶4. (C) AS FAR AS AN EU RESPONSE, YRJOLA SAID THAT COUNCIL AND PRESIDENCY OFFICIALS RAISED THE TRANSNISTRIA REFERENDUM WITH RUSSIAN PSC AMBASSADOR VLADIMIR CHIZHOV DURING THE PSC RUSSIA TROIKA MEETINGS ON JULY 14. CHIZHOV DOWNPLAYED THE REFERENDUM AS "SOMETHING RUSSIA CAN NOT CONTROL" BUT REAFFIRMED TO THE TROIKA RUSSIA'S COMMITMENT TO MOLDOVA'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY. SUBSEQUENTLY, YRJOLA REPORTED, THE FINNISH PRESIDENCY AND THE COUNCIL SECRETARIAT AGREED THAT THEY WOULD NOT ORGANIZE A FORMAL EU DEMARCHE TO RUSSIA ON THE ISSUE, BUT AGREED TO BRING IT UP ON THE MARGINS OF SEVERAL UPCOMING EU-RUSSIA MEETINGS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE GOR RESPONDS, BOTH THE FINNS AND THE COUNCIL REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FORMAL DEMARCHE AS SEPT. 17 NEARS. PAGE 05 RUEHHEA0682 C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000682 WARE