FINLAND'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SUDDENLY, IT'S A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HELSINKI 000063 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL FI SUBJECT: FINLAND'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SUDDENLY, IT'S A RACE REF: A. HELSINKI 16 ¶B. 05 HELSINKI 1296 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Incumbent Tarja Halonen made an impressive showing in the first round of Finland's presidential election, besting her nearest rival, Conservative Sauli Niinisto, by more than 21 percentage points. However, Halonen was unable to secure a first round victory and, for the first time in the campaign, she and the SDP may have reason to be concerned. The two-candidate race has quickly tightened into a far closer contest than any pundit or pre-election poll had predicted, as PM/Center Party Candidate Matti Vanhanen - - who finished a disappointing third with only 18 percent of the first round vote - - announced he would support Niinisto. This effort to rally "non-socialist support" may be bearing fruit, as current surveys give Halonen 53 percent and Niinisto 47, and has caused consternation among the SDP and its allies on the left. However a fifth of voters remain undecided. Even though the winner will not be determined until Jan. 29, pundits have listed Vanhanen among the bigger "losers" following the first round. Meanwhile, Niinisto and the Conservatives have already been dubbed "winners," simply by dint of forcing a second round. And should Niinisto pull off an upset -- which we, like most Finnish analysts, still view as unlikely -- the once- heavily favored Halonen and her SDP will clearly be viewed as the biggest losers. End Summary. Suddenly, It's a Race -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The wind chill in Helsinki dipped below -40 degrees in the week following the first round of Finland's presidential election but, for the first time during this winter campaign, incumbent Tarja Halonen of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) may have broken a sweat. Her showing on Jan. 15 was impressive, to be sure: Halonen netted 46 percent of the vote, easily outdistancing her nearest rival, Conservative Party (CONS) candidate Sauli Niinisto, who took 24 percent. Center Party (CEN) candidate and current Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen won 18 percent, followed by the Green Party's Heidi Hautala (3.4%); the True Finn Party's Timo Soini (3.3%); and three others who won less than 1.5% each. Halonen's supporters within the SDP note that a 46 percent first-round showing is among the highest in Finnish history, and that even a six point lead going into ;round two is quite high. One SDP strategist told us that women and voters on the left still overwhelmingly favor Halonen, and he suggested that both the narrowing of her lead and the very fact of a second round will energize her base -- some of whom may have stayed at home during round one -- to get out and vote. Others have suggested that the SDP "enthusiasts" (see reftel) who eagerly pushed for a first round win were never realistic, and that the machinery remains in place to ensure success in the second round. ¶3. (SBU) Still, the enthusiasts and even Halonen herself found it difficult to hide their disappointment at being forced to face a run-off against Niinisto. Overall turnout was only 73 percent, the lowest since Finns began electing their president directly. To compound Halonen's disappointment, Finland-Gallup quickly offered further reasons for apprehension. Its first poll following the first round, released on January 17, showed 53 percent voting for Halonen in the second round and 47 percent for Niinisto. Before the first round, polls asking voters whom they would support in a hypothetical runoff between Niinisto and Halonen had indicated that the President would win better than 60 percent of the vote in an one-on-one contest. However, the recent narrowing appears to reflect that Niinisto's significant surge in momentum before the election has continued. ¶4. (SBU) According to one SDP analyst, the turnout factor not only spelled the difference in preventing Halonen's first round win, but also may have reflected a bit of a failure in terms of the party's own efforts to get out the vote. It also contributed to a surprising surge by Niinisto in the final days, he noted. Meanwhile, Halonen supporters from non-SDP parties were less circumspect. The party chair of the Left Alliance -- which supported Halonen from the beginning and ran no candidate of its own -- placed blame for the run-off squarely on the SDP, asserting that it had run a lethargic campaign and failed to attract the "cross-over" voters needed for a first round victory. On the other hand, she said, her party's voters had done their share to support Halonen. ¶5. (SBU) Despite the concern and disappointment, nearly all our SDP contacts still predicted that Halonen would withstand the challenge and win. Indeed, most hold that, barring a major gaffe by Halonen, the President should win handily. However, an increasing number also fear that Halonen's failure to win a knock-out in the first round offers two dangers. Aside from leaving the door open to an albeit unlikely Niinisto upset, it also offers the "bourgeois" parties (CEN and CONS) two weeks to test their ability to cooperate -- something that could result in stronger "anti-socialist" campaigns down the road. Several of our contacts on the left have made no attempt to hide their concern about the March 2007 parliamentary elections, in which many say the emboldened bourgeois parties may be able to portray the left as vulnerable. Vanhanen Breaks with Halonen -------------- ¶6. (SBU) A significant reason for Niinisto's surge -- and for Halonen's concern -- was the prompt announcement by CEN candidate Matti Vanhanen that he would support Niinisto. The speed and verve of Vanhanen's move -- a huge boon for Niinisto -- came as a surprise to many. First, as Prime Minister, Vanhanen has made his close cooperation and excellent personal relationship with Halonen a point of pride, even though many suggested it hurt him during the presidential campaign. Second, the two "bourgeois" parties (CEN and CONS) historically have had a difficult time cooperating during elections, prompting one of Vanhanen's own advisors to express surprise at the PM's early and forceful endorsement of Niinisto. She and others have suggested that Niinisto -- despite winning Vanhanen's vote -- will still have to court skeptical CEN voters actively if he hopes to defeat Halonen, but that process may already be bearing fruit: the same Jan. 18 Finland Gallup poll showed 80 percent of self-identified Vanhanen voters lining up behind Niinisto. ¶7. (SBU) That said, Vanhanen clearly brings far fewer voters with him than he would have hoped. In fact, many pundits are portraying Vanhanen as the big loser so far. The day after the election two of Vanhanen's key advisors told poloff that the results were very disappointing, although not a surprise. The PM's internal polling had indicated for at least two weeks that a more distant than hoped for third-place showing was likely. Vanhanen did what he had to do during the election and conducted his campaign with a courtesy and respect for Halonen that most Finns admired. He may have lost votes to Niinisto because of this, they said, but he also showed that he could shelve his ego for the good of the country and his party. The advisors opined that the electorate would remember Vanhanen's respectful campaign and his good cooperation with Halonen and reward him and the Center Party during next year's general election. However, many others have suggested that Vanhanen and CEN both now face a rough road, and that even the PM's position as party chairman could be weakened unless he orchestrates a reconsolidation, cabinet reshuffle, or some other internal shake-up. Niinisto: Already a Winner, Even if he Loses -------------- ¶8. (SBU) While some are calling Vanhanen an early loser, many have already called Niinisto a de facto winner regardless of whether or not he upsets Halonen in Round Two. The fact that he not only made it to the second round but also quickly narrowed the gap between himself and the incumbent attest to both his party's strong campaign and his own personal charisma. Niinisto's campaign attracted praise from other parties from the beginning, and the CONS youth organization, in particular, devised innovative ways to reach out to young, left-leaning Finns. Indeed, his advisors sought to run a high-tech campaign replete with messages considered controversial or even aggressive by Finnish standards -- but which always attracted significant attention. One poll noted that Niinisto's campaign attracted a more "negative response" from voters than any other, to which one of his strategists responded, "Negative response is still response." ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Niinisto's impressive efforts notwithstanding, any analysis of the first round should put one thing in perspective first: Tarja Halonen won by an impressive margin and received more votes than Niinisto and Vanhanen combined. She won the majority of votes in several provinces that traditionally are Center Party bastions, and barring the unexpected, should win the second-round. That said, her numbers-- just over 46% of the total-- were in the low end of what even the SDP's more frugal strategists expected. Meanwhile, Vanhanen's quick endorsement of Niinisto may be the most intriguing element of the entire campaign and may prove to have the most long-term impact. Should Halonen win, the PM's close and effective working relationship with her -- which has paid dividends for his Government and for the Center Party's reputation -- will most certainly be strained. However, it may indeed foreshadow the emergence down the road of enhanced "bourgeois" cooperation -- something that CONS and CEN have always dreamed of but never achieved. Their history of non- cooperation is long and difficult, even though many in the business-friendly wing of Vanhanen's Center Party would prefer the Conservatives as a junior coalition partner over the SDP. In any case, we still view a Niinisto win as unlikely, despite CEN's support. However, should he pull off the upset, both the SDP and Halonen would clearly become the election's biggest losers, both in round two and perhaps further down the road as well. HYATT