C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000018

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM BO FI EUN
SUBJECT: FINNS SUPPORT JOINT STATEMENT TO BELARUS; WILL
APPROACH RUSSIA

REF: A. 05 STATE 208887


B. 05 STATE 232583

C. 05 HELSINKI 1146

Classified By: PolChief Gregory Thome, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Following up on reftels, PolChief called on MFA
Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia Matti Turunen to
discuss Belarus. The GOF views a joint US-EU demarche to
Lukashenko in advance of the March election as imperative,
Turunen said. Finland, for its part, would welcome a very
strongly worded demarche demanding widespread democratic
reforms and an early invitation to OSCE/OHDIR observers.
Finland also would not oppose a tough message to Lukashenko
demanding he not run. However, Turunen cautioned,
flexibility on this point is key and the US and the EU cannot
afford to deadlock over language, because a joint demarche
showing US-EU solidarity will send a stronger message and
prove more effective in the long run than will the demand
that he not run, which he will simply ignore. In any case,
Turunen concluded, Finland supports fully the concept of a
joint demarche and expects that consensus on language can be
reached, perhaps during the political directors' meeting next
week.


2. (C) Turunen noted that convincing Russia to become
involved in a dialogue with Belarus would also be helpful.
He admitted that getting Russia to agree to a strong demarche
similar to what the US and EU hope to deliver amounted to
"wishful thinking." However, he said that the GOF, now an EU
Troika member, would encourage EU-Russian discussions aimed
at encouraging reform in Belarus.


3. (C) Comment: Over the past several months, Finland has
attempted bilaterally to open working level discussions with
Belarus on "safe" issues of shared concern -- including
Baltic Sea and other environmental cooperation, nuclear
safety, and accreditation of non-resident diplomats -- but
has been rebuffed on all fronts. Nevertheless, we are
pleased to see that the GOF is making more pro-active efforts
to address problems in Belarus, and particularly that it is
now seeking to engage Moscow. End Comment.
HYATT