"IF YOU DON'T HAVE YOUR HEALTH..." (AILMENTS AMONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 008633 SIPDIS SIPDIS, INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SOCI CU SUBJECT: "IF YOU DON'T HAVE YOUR HEALTH..." (AILMENTS AMONG THE CASTRO CLAN) REF: A. HAVANA 8017 ¶B. HAVANA 7324 Classified By: MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: Castro has reduced his public profile since February, but rumors of debilitating ill health are unfounded. Russian officials who met with him last week described Castro as "lively." In contrast, Raul Castro wears a back brace and appears to be in worse physical condition than his elder brother. Rumors are running wild that Vilma Espin, Raul Castro's wife, is near death and that a grand burial is in preparation. (Vilma is a prominent figurehead, and her death will be treated with the solemnity accorded to a revolutionary commander.) Eusebio Leal, the "Mayor" of Old Havana, has also been ill for some time, but recently appeared publicly at a diplomatic reception and art show. End Summary. Castro (Relatively) Quiet -------------- ¶2. (C) Castro watchers note the Comandante has ramped down public speeches since his last marathon presentation on January 19-21 (three nights of television appearances to discuss the "Year of the Energy Revolution") (ref A). Other than an appearance on the evening talk show "The Round Table" excoriating Posada Carriles and the U.S. Interests Section, Castro's speech topics have been low key: Information technology (before a visibly bored student audience); primary education; sports; the 44th anniversary of the Union of Communist Youth; and last night's commemoration of the Battle of Giron (Bay of Pigs). ¶3. (C) Castro does not appear to have met with Nation of Islam leader Farrukhan during his April visit (ref B), though he has feted other "luminaries" -- for example, he presented the Jose Marti Prize to Hugo Chavez on February ¶3. Today, April 20, Castro is expected to receive visiting Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Sidorskiy. ¶4. (C) Castro's relatively subdued public profile initially sparked (once again) rumors of ill health, but they are unfounded. Russian officials at a signing ceremony for the purchase of five passenger aircraft last week spent several hours with Castro and described him as "lively and lucid." Other foreign visitors have made similar observations. Instead, Castro's low profile may have been encouraged by nervous Castro aides looking to "turn down the volume" in expectation of hot weather, 
associated power outages and an irritated populace (ref B). Castro spent so many successive nights on TV during the hot summer of 2005 with its interminable power shortages that the Cuban public began to ridicule him openly, demanding a more dependable electrical current - along with their prime time sports and soap operas. ¶5. (C) In contrast to his elder brother, Raul Castro is ageing badly. Japanese Ambassador Iwata told COM that conversations with regime insiders indicate the younger brother is in worse physical shape than Fidel. According to Iwata, Raul wears a back brace almost constantly at present, and is reportedly in serious pain much of the time from an undisclosed ailment. Vespers for Vilma -------------- ¶6. (C) Even worse off is Raul's wife, Vilma Espin Guillois de Castro, who is reportedly on her death bed. USINT officials have heard the rumor that she was dead or near death from five sources, and two of whom went so far as to suggest that Espin was already dead and being kept "on ice" until after (or perhaps during) the GOC's May Day celebrations. On the other hand, Reuters journalist Marc Frank said Espin has been ill for some time and had called her friends up to a year ago to bid a final adieu. It seems Vilma has spent a long time "on her death bed." ¶7. (C) In any event, Vilma's departure from the scene will be a significant event for the GOC. According to Frank, her funeral will serve as a useful "trial run" for the big day (Fidel's death). Dissident Martha Beatriz Roque heard a grand burial site was under preparation in Holguin HAVANA 00008633 002 OF 002 Province. ¶8. (C) Comment: Vilma Espin is a key public figure. She is not only Raul's wife, but Fidel's ceremonial First Lady and Head of the Cuban Women's Federation. She is not, however, a political power and has served mostly as a shining example of womanly revolutionary values (similar to "Mother of the Revolution" Celia Sanchez, who died in 1980). More relevant female figures in the GOC include Maria del Carmen Concepcion, a regional leader in Pinar del Rio, and Minister of Basic Industries Yadira Garcia. End Comment. Eusebio's Illness -------------- ¶9. (C) Eusebio Leal, the so-called "Mayor of Old Havana," has been rumored to be sick (possibly with diabetes) for some time. A Dutch hotel manager reported that restoration projects in Old Havana had stalled as a result. A Cuban project manager for Habaguanex (Leal's organization),confirmed Leal's illness to P/E officer but denied that restoration in Old Havana had suffered. She said the projects had been going on long enough that Leal's staff was perfectly capable of running the show. (Comment: This might be true in the short run, but Leal is both the brains and the political brawn behind the restoration of Old Havana and his influence with Castro is exceptional. End Comment.) Despite his ill health, Leal attended a Mexican diplomatic reception and art show earlier this week and did not betray any obvious frailties other than some weight loss and a display of his well- established short temper - he was seen berating two subordinates after the Mexican event. PARMLY