ROQUE UNVEILS PLAN FOR TRANSITION GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 015674 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE DEPT FOR WHA/CCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2016 TAGS: PHUM KDEM PREL SOCI CU SUBJECT: ROQUE UNVEILS PLAN FOR TRANSITION GOVERNMENT HAVANA 00015674 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Chief of Mission Michael Parmly for Reason 1.4(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Leading Cuban pro-democracy activist Martha Beatriz Roque has released a 27-page transition plan for Cuba produced by her Assembly to Promote Civil Society. Titled "Anticipating the Day After," the 15-section document is a self-described "compendium of ideas" that focuses on issues a transitional government might address in advance of free elections. The document envisions dismantling Cuba's repressive structures, instituting a free-market system and prosecuting human rights violators, all while continuing key government services. The Assembly views constitutional change as crucial, and suggests that a constituent assembly should update the 1940 Constitution. Roque's plan also calls for "separating" the nomenklatura; reinventing the health-care system; and ousting from Cuba all foreign terrorists harbored by the current regime. "Day After" provides a snapshot of a possible future, but doesn't explain how to get there. It lacks the depth and breadth of Oswaldo Paya's "All Cubans" blueprint, but, like Roque herself, does not shy away from addressing controversial matters. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Veteran activist Martha Beatriz Roque on August 1 unveiled a 27-page plan for a transitional Cuban government that would be in effect "from the day after (the end of the current regime) until we can hold free elections." Roque, who told us August 7 she is convinced that "Fidel is never coming back to power," envisions the transitional government being formed by current members of the on-island opposition. The transitional government (TG) could consist of 20 to 25 people, she said, among them possibly four coordinators. (Pressed on this point, Roque named herself, Paya, Oscar Biscet and Vladimiro Roca, but cautioned that this was mere speculation.) The document says the TG, which should be in power no more than two years, would need to work on a program of social, political and economic restoration, guaranteeing key liberties, fostering a multi-party system and leading to free elections in the shortest possible time. The program would have to balance the interests of Cubans on and off the island, adding that a key priority would be freeing the political prisoners. �00A;FREEING POLITICAL PRISONERS -------------- ¶3. (C) Without liberating the political prisoners, there would be no true transition, the document says. "Day After" also envisions reviewing the cases of Cubans convicted of "common crimes," such as trading in agricultural produce. The document says the TG should provide resources to political prisoners who have been freed, "with the goal of helping them be reintegrated into society." It adds that any members of the armed forces or interior ministry who mistreated political prisoners (or dissidents) should be removed from their positions and prosecuted. Roque also favors "separating" the nomenklatura and preventing its members' participation in a new Cuban government. However, the plan makes clear that some members of the GOC should be allowed to remain in government at the municipal and provincial levels, provided there is no blood on their hands. DISSOLVING NATIONAL ASSEMBLY -------------- ¶4. (C) "Day After" calls for deep-sixing all of the key levers of GOC control: dissolving the National Assembly, Council of State, Council of Ministers and, because it is a mechanism of government control, the Central Committee of the Communist Party (CP). It says the TG should draft a new election law and seek international election organizing and monitoring assistance. It adds that a transformation of the Cuban system cannot occur without Constitutional change; to this end, the document urges consideration of a constituent assembly to essentially update Cuba's Constitution. SWEEPING ECONOMIC REFORMS -------------- ¶5. (C) Roque's Assembly says macroeconomic reforms would have to be adopted immediately to boost food production, create jobs and reduce poverty. "Day After" says some state enterprises would have to be privatized, while others would have to be shuttered (particularly those whose workers are primarily engaged in political activities). The TG would encourage profit-sharing at state firms. The document says monetary and banking reforms are needed, as is a private banking system, but offers no details on how to achieve these goals. "Day After" targets ending the current pension HAVANA 00015674 002.2 OF 002 system, but says those already receiving assistance would not be cut off. The text also calls for reaching out to the IMF, Paris Club, IDB and others for assistance. PAYBACK -------------- ¶6. (C) "Day After" says that when it comes to foreign trade, the TG should keep in mind which countries sustained the dictatorship through commerce and investments. It says the TG should expel all ETA members, as well as all other foreign terrorists harbored by the current regime. It says the TG should seek international forgiveness for Cuba's worldwide exportation of subversion. It says the transitional government should present a public apology to the relatives of those killed in the "13 de Marzo" tugboat sinking, in the 1996 plane shootdowns, and in firing squads that followed summary trials. It says Cubans have a right to see the lists of those who cooperated with the GOC against the dissidents. It calls for tearing down certain monuments, including those erected in honor of people who detonated bombs at hotels and cinemas in action ostensibly aimed at the Batista regime. ¶7. (C) The document also says exiled Cubans have proven that they have the capacity to offer resources for new businesses, and says it is important for them to take part in Cuba's reconstruction. PARMLY