FLAGGING PRO-SENATE MDC FACTION WRITES OFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000698 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. NEULING SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2015 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: FLAGGING PRO-SENATE MDC FACTION WRITES OFF ELECTORAL LOSS, REQUESTS USG HELP REF: REFTEL: HARARE 610 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz under Section 1 .4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) MDC pro-Senate faction leaders on June 6 outlined their plans for the immediate future to emboffs, especially including outreach to the Embassy and a possible trip to the United States by the faction's president. Pro-Senate faction Secretary General Welshman Ncube and deputy Secretary General SIPDIS Priscilla Musihairambwi-Mushonga also asked for US Government assistance. Deputy Treasurer Mariam Mushayi dismissed the faction's recent electoral loss (reftel) and described plans to contest rural council elections scheduled for August. Vice President Gibson Sibanda, the senior faction leader present, appeared to be only a shadow of his former self. End Summary. -------------- --- Faction Seeks USG Assistance, Broaches U.S. Trip -------------- --- ¶2. (C) Ncube and Musihairambwi-Mushonga in a meeting with USAID Country Director and democracy and governance officer on June 6 stressed the faction's interest in refurbishing relations with the USG. At an Embassy-sponsored reception for the pro-Senate faction later that night, Ncube and Musihairambwi-Mushonga were uncharacteristically jovial with Embassy staff. Their congenial posture contrasts with complaints from pro-Senate faction leaders to Embassy personnel and to POLITICAL analysts over the past few months that the USG had favored the anti-senate faction at their exclusion. ¶3. (C) Ncube and Musihairambwi-Mushonga in their meeting with USAID personnel requested US assistance to strengthen the pro-Senate faction's institutions. Alleging that the anti-Senate faction had taken all of their equipment, they requested computers and office supplies in addition to publicity training. (N.B. The anti-Senate faction told us months ago that Ncube and his supporters had taken the bulk of the equipment.) Ncube also asked for assistance with voter education and noted that they were prepared to conduct their own voter awareness campaign when the USAID officials asked about their level of coordination with existing electoral NGOs. ¶4. (C) The pro-Senate leaders also stated that faction president Arthur Mutambara and pro-Senate-leaning MP David Coltart were planning a trip to the US beginning on July 7 and requested plane tickets for two unnamed additional participants (N.B. Presumably Ncube and Musihairambwi-Mushonga). -------------- -------------- Writing Off Budiriro Loss, Looking Toward Rural Election -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) At the Embassy-sponsored reception for the pro-Senate faction also on June 6, Deputy Treasurer Mushayi dismissed the faction's performance in the Budiriro parliamentary by-election last month where their candidate garnered only 4 percent of the vote. Mushayi said the faction never expected to win in the Tsvangirai stronghold. Mushayi, who organized logistics for the campaign, said that the faction merely intended to test the waters in the Harare high-density suburb HARARE 00000698 002 OF 002 and assess the faction's strengths and weaknesses. ¶6. (C) The faction would contest the rural council elections scheduled for August, according to Mushayi. She said the faction had developed a rural strategy that had the leadership conducting rallies and meetings in supporter's homes. Nkayi MP Abednico Bhebhe added that he recently held rallies in all 26 wards of his rural constituency. Although not specifically aimed toward the upcoming elections, Bhebhe noted that the rallies were an important grassroots-building exercise for the faction. Both Mushayi and Bhebhe said that good rains had produced an ample harvest that would lessen the rural areas' dependency on government and free them for more independent POLITICAL action. -------------- Sibanda on the Sidelines -------------- ¶7. (C) Sibanda, the faction's senior-most leader at the event, made a few disjointed remarks wishing well Embassy staffers who were leaving this summer, but otherwise stayed on the discussion's sidelines. Sibanda spoke at length to econoff about his family situation and bemoaned the passing of his wife, Ntombizodwa, on Christmas Eve 2003. (N.B. Numerous contacts have commented on Sibanda's physical and mental deterioration since his wife's passing. Indeed, many in the anti-Senate camp attribute Sibanda's presence in the other faction to this decline.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The pro-senate faction is unlikely to do significantly better in rural council elections than it did in Budiriro. The faction has signally failed to develop any grass roots support, especially in comparison with the anti-Senate faction, which has attracted thousands of supporters to Morgan Tsvangiari,s recent series of rallies. The pro-Senate faction has also begun to see increasing desertions and many local commentators are openly speculating on its shelf life. This has to come as a disappointment to ZANU-PF, which had hoped to use the pro-Senate faction to diminish Tsvangirai,s stature. It also likely comes as a disappointment to some of the factions more outspoken external supporters, including the South Africans and some of our European friends. We find it interesting but unsurprising that at this juncture Ncube and his faction would turn to the international community, including the U.S., for financial support needed to keep their fading prospects alive. SCHULTZ