MUGABE AT 82 - RIGID, DEFIANT, ISOLATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000200 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. NEULING NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE AFR/SA FOR E. LOKEN COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR KPAO ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE AT 82 - RIGID, DEFIANT, ISOLATED REF: (A) HARARE 178 (B) 04 HARARE 882 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In a taped, edited 90-minute state media interview televised locally on Febuary 19, Robert Mugabe sounded familiar anti-western themes and evidenced little inclination to countenance economic or political reforms on the eve of his 82nd birthday. He was familiarly cagey about the process of succession and said nothing about the identity of a likely successor. He struck out against customary perceived enemies inside and outside the country - the MDC, the West, the IMF, "cowardly" Africans who refused to stand up to the West, and corrupt officialdom. Citing Zimbabwe's purportedly unique challenges of putative western sanctions and drought, Mugabe said the GOZ would continue to print money as necessary despite hyperinflation and put down cabinet ministers who advocated "textbook economics." End summary. -------------- Succession When the Time Comes -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Responding to sometimes probing but presumably pre-cleared questions from a state media interlocutor, Mugabe said his party would rise to the challenge of choosing a successor "when the moment has come". He stresse that leadership had to come from open processesin a party congress (N.B. the next of which is pesently scheduled after the next presidential elction) - not from "clandestine meetings". He aded that protection of his legacy required the culivation of a "vanguard of cadres willing to defend the gains of the liberation struggle" but said nthing about potential successors. -------------- Contempt for Opposition -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Mugabe was typically contmptuous of the opposition MDC but reiterated hisacceptance of a multi-party system. He portrayedthe MDC as "erstwhile cronies of the UK", which till aspired to govern Zimbabwe "by remote control. The opposition continued to be aligned with th white community here in "opposing nationalism i every way possible." Asked why he didn't kick he MDC delegation out of parliament, Mugabe allowed that some were sufficiently compatible and �A;could work for the improvement of the country. (Comment: Some read this as an explicit reference to pro-Senate faction leader Welshman Ncube, which may come back to haunt Ncube down the line.) The rest should learn from some in the West how to be a constructive opposition rather than try to advance the West's agenda of regime change. -------------- Contempt for West -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Portraying Zimbabwe's adversarial relationship with the West in familiar terms, Mugabe suggested his willingness to engage the West but claimed that the UK Prime Minister Blair, backed by President Bush, remained obsessed with regime change. He meandered into a lengthy diatribe about the "nature of westerners," as manifested by purported genocide or abuse of native Americans, African slaves, HARARE 00000200 002 OF 004 Aborigines, Palestinians, etc. He claimed that the West and the United States had "never supported" Zimbabwe "from the day or independence" and were now subverting the IMF to unprecedentedly push a political agenda in Zimbabwe. Interestingly, when asked about his Look East policy, Mugabe cryptically responded that looking eastward on a globe eventually reaches to the West, and in any event did not elaborate on the promise of relations with China, Iran and others as has been his custom in recent years. -------------- Contempt for IMF -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Mugabe continued that the IMF similarly had "never worked in Zimbabwe's interest"; Zimbabwe had paid off IMF arrears to "be done with it" and would pay off remaining arrears "in due course." He complained that the West's turning of Zimbabwe's "neighbors" against it had prevented Zimbabwe from borrowing available resources in the region (N.B. an apparent reference to his failed loan negotiations with South Africa) to pay the arrears so the country had to sacrifice scarce domestic resources to pay. -------------- Contempt for Regional "Cowards" -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Reacting to the interviewer's reference to outside attempts - South African President Mbeki's, Nigerian President Obasanjo's, the AU's, the Commonwealth Troika's) - to facilitate domestic dialogue, Mugabe warned "outsiders" to "keep away" and insinuated such attempts were secretly prodded by Tony Blair with malign intent. Mugabe blasted other African leaders for "cowardly" not standing up for Zimbabwe against the West. He complained that African observers of Zimbabwe's 2005 parliamentary elections, for example, were uniformly satisfied with the elections' freeness and fairness but had failed to say "go to Hell!" in response to the West's condemnation. -------------- Contempt for "Bookish" Economics -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Mugabe offered a surreal defense of his government's economic policies. He claimed that laws of supply and demand were merely "guidelines" that in any event no longer applied in Zimbabwe's situation. Uniquely challenged by sanctions and drought, he continued, Zimbabwe inevitably suffered from contracting production and declining revenues. Printing money was the only way to avert starvation under the circumstances. He complained of a presence in the private sector of "neutral" elements who cared more about making money than about the nation and thwarted economic planning. In any event, his government would continue "people-oriented" economics over defeatist "bookish" approaches, and he criticized Finance Minister Murerwa and Justice Minister Chinamasa for advocating the latter. -------------- Disappointment in Cabinet -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Mugabe elaborated that he was to a great extent disappointed in his so-called "development cabinet". He claimed that poor planning and "self-seeking" behavior among many ministers had compromised agricultural productivity, HARARE 00000200 003 OF 004 even though the government purportedly had sufficient money and materials for the sector. On the mining sector, citing figures recently conveyed by RBZ Governor to the Ambassador (ref A),Mugabe complained about "leakages" in official production owing to "insufficient supervision." When "our enemies" abandoned facilities in the manufacturing sector, he continued, the government failed to make available adequate resources to assure their continued productivity. Mugabe bemoaned corruption and a decay in the nation's moral fiber from top levels of government down. Asked why he did not sack non-performing ministers, Mugabe suggested he might in the near future. -------------- Looking His Age... -------------- ¶9. (C) In his first extended public interview since his disastrous SkyNews interview in May 2004 (ref B),Mugabe seemed prepared and did not hesitate in responding to any questions. However, he was often rambling and disjointed, at least once bordering on incoherent. He slouched uncomfortably in his chair at times and appeared fatigued, albeit engaged, thoughout. -------------- State Media Succession Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In reporting Mugabe's comments on succession, the GOZ's Herald newspaper clarified that "clandestine meetings" referred to the so-called Tsholotsho gathering in which then Information Minister (now independent MP) Jonathan Moyo purportedly led a group in attempting to supplant a Mugabe-sanctioned party leadership for the upcoming party congress. Interestingly, the newspaper did not mention former Mugabe heir apparent Emmerson Mnangagwa, head of the faction generally viewed as behind the Tsholotsho meeting. (Comment: We took Mugabe's reference to be a warning against discussing succession without his knowledge and not necessarily a rebuke of Mnangagwa.) The newspaper identified three succession process scenarios it reported Justice Minister Chinamasa had described: (1) consolidation of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2008, (2) parliamentary selection of a President to serve from 2008-2010, presumably with consolidated elections in 2010, and (3) election of a President to a seven-year term in 2008, with consolidated elections beginning in 2015. -------------- A Nation "Celebrates" -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Mugabe's interview kicked off a week-long stage-managed national "celebration" of his 82nd birthday on February 21. State newspapers have been overflowing with accolades of the President in advertisements from private firms, parastatals and ministries. His picture is everywhere and the state airwaves and print media detail every minister's glowing comment about the nation's founding leader. Each province reportedly will host a party in his honor, with a national celebration planned for Mutare at a reported cost of Z$10 billion (about (US$65,000). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) The interview reveals a lonely leader increasingly alienated from a surrounding world over which he has ever HARARE 00000200 004 OF 004 dwindling influence and more distorted perceptions. His exposition had nearly everybody now in a mistrusted camp arrayed against him, with South Africa and many in his own cabinet the latest apparent additions. His continued evasions about succession suggest his unease about any successor's ability to hold the party together and "protect his legacy." Responding to the interviewer's final question as to what his birthday wish was, Mugabe said he hoped to be around another 82 years - a perhaps telling indicator of his unwillingness to depart his stage for the foreseeable future. ¶13. (C) And yet to every Zimbabwean who expects to survive Mugabe - and who doesn't - the interview only underscored the country's need to get past a man whose gaze is only backward. Most in the party's upper echelons know their future with Mugabe is limited, whether they fall victim to Mugabe's expected cabinet dismissals or simply lose their place in a crumbling patronage system. A growing number see potential salvation in the West and "bookish" economics; even as they fawn over the President for his birthday, they are planning and posturing for a post-Mugabe world they know will be different. The interview magnified the Mugabe malignancy to the country but a central dilemma remains for the ruling party elite and, indeed, for all Zimbabweans: wait him out or work to hasten his departure? Each path holds peril for most. DELL