COLTART DISCUSSES OPPOSITION STRATEGY AMIDST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001429 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SUBJECT: COLTART DISCUSSES OPPOSITION STRATEGY AMIDST ZANU-PF PANIC Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Pro-Senate MDC MP David Coltart on November 29 told the Ambassador that ZANU-PF parliamentarians were in a state of panic as public corruption allegations had become weapons in the ongoing succession battle. The MP agreed with the Ambassador that the GOZ had been weakened as a result of the battle and the MDC needed to take advantage. To that end, Coltart said reconciliation talks between the two MDC factions were progressing and that the chances of forming a coalition ahead of the next planned elections were good. End Summary. -------------- ZANU-PF Turning On Itself -------------- ¶2. (C) The silver lining to the MDC split, Coltart told the Ambassador, was that it created a sense of security within the ruling party, which allowed the underlying succession tensions to boil to the surface. These tensions were clearly visible in Parliament, where Coltart said the majority party was in disarray. Allegations of high-level corruption in the national bus company ZUPCO, the parastatal steel firm ZISCO, and most recently the import of substandard fertilizer had become the new tools of the succession battle, instilling panic across the ruling party's ranks. Coltart opined that the ongoing revelations of ministerial-level graft indicated that the intra-ZANU-PF battles were still raging. ¶3. (C) Amidst this ruling party infighting, Coltart said that former-Finance Minister Simba Makoni might emerge as a compromise succession candidate. Vice President Joyce Mujuru had not proven herself a worthy frontrunner and Rural Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa had failed to garner popular support with his proxies Jonathan Moyo and Daniel Shumba. Drawing parallels to the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev, Coltart speculated that a Makoni presidency might undertake reforms that would sweep the ZANU-PF system away, even though Makoni himself might not survive a tumultuous transformation. -------------- Opposition Adapting Strategy -------------- ¶4. (C) Coltart agreed with the Ambassador's suggestion that the democratic opposition rethink its strategies in light of the heated ZANU-PF succession race. Civil disobedience was still important to maintain pressure on the regime, but both factions of the opposition needed to think about the end game and plan for a ZANU-PF successor who will inevitably need to reach out to the West for financial support to revive the economy. The Ambassador asked whether constitutional reform was really essential or whether that what matter was who holds power. Coltart said he still favored first enacting a new constitution and then conducting internationally-supervised, free and fair elections, but conceded the ultimate goal was to unseat ZANU-PF in any way possible. ¶5. (C) Agreeing with the Ambassador's suggestion that ZANU-PF relished a divided opposition, Coltart said that reconciliation talks between the two MDC factions were progressing. The two sides have already agreed to a code of HARARE 00001429 002 OF 002 conduct and the negotiating teams met as recently as the past weekend. Coltart anticipated that a reconciliation commission likely would be established in January to address intra-opposition violence conducted by all sides. The commission would then pave the way for an opposition coalition going into the next national election, anticipated in 2008. Under this plan, the two factions would agree to an electoral team and to split ministerial posts. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) As Coltart notes, the recent spate of corruption allegations indicates that ZANU-PF is perhaps even more factionalized than the opposition. Even more encouraging is the role that the parliamentary committees, supported by the USG-funded SUNY program, are having in exposing this graft; for instance, a ruling party committee chairman recently called for the impeachment of Industry Minister Obert Mpofu for giving false testimony on the status of ZISCO and Speaker of Parliament John Nkomo on November 30 allowed the investigation to go forward. This succession-related carnage within ZANU-PF creates real openings for the opposition, which must now play its cards carefully lest a premature move prompt the ruling party to circle the wagons and once again focus its ire on regime opponents. DELL