ARCHBISHOP PIUS NUBE ON THE STATE OF ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001376 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2011 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: ARCHBISHOP PIUS NUBE ON THE STATE OF ZIMBABWE REF: HARARE 1299 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.5 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) A despondent Archbishop Pius Ncube told polchief and visiting deskofficer November 16 at Catholic Church offices in Bulawayo that most Zimbabweans average have "given up" any hope for change. Mugabe and ZANU-PF are interested only in clinging to power and will rig elections. The MDC is without strong leadership, is corrupt, and divided. The Church is divided and ineffective. Ncube said he will participate in a dialogue on the controversial National Vision document presented to President Mugabe on October 27 but he doubts it will bear fruit. -------------- A Country in Crisis -------------- ¶2. (C) Ncube said that 98 percent of Zimbabweans have given up on any hope for things changing for the better. People are going without food and many are becoming dishonest as they try to survive until "it,s over." Youth are frustrated; many are unable to attend school because their parents cannot pay school fees. They believe they have no power to press for change and that a solution is in "God,s hands." ¶3. (C) Ncube said the people have lost faith and confidence in the government, the opposition, the churches, the military and virtually every other institution. Mugabe is not interested in solutions; he cares only about remaining in power and will continue to rig elections. A popular uprising is unlikely*there is nobody to organize it and people believe they will be shot if they threaten Mugabe. In the long run, he mused, civic education will teach people how to hold their leaders accountable. "Perhaps we,re in for a long haul," he concluded. -------------- The MDC is not the Answer -------------- ¶4. (C) Ncube believed the MDC has been ineffective. Morgan Tsvangirai vacillates and is inept. Ncube criticized SIPDIS Tsvangirai for announcing that "nobody else" would lead the SIPDIS MDC and for announcing and failing to follow through on a popular uprising. Pro-Senate faction leader Arthur Mutambara has significant support in Matabeleland but is at a disadvantage nationally because he has spent so much time outside of the country. In addition to lack of leadership, Ncube added that the MDC is handicapped by corruption and infiltration by the government. -------------- The Church and the National Vision Document -------------- ¶5. (C) Ncube said that as a member of the Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops Conference he signed the National Vision of Zimbabwe document (ref). He believed, however, that it had been watered down by the government and now belonged to the government rather than the church. As a signatory to the document, he said he would participate in a national dialogue HARARE 00001376 002 OF 002 on the issues it raises, although he is not hopeful it will bear fruit. ¶6. (C) As a force for change, Ncube said the Church, like other Zimbabwean institutions, is hurt by division. Mugabe has exacerbated those divisions by buying off some church leaders with land and money. The government has infiltrated some parishes and recruited some priests and nuns as spies within the Church. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Ncube is internationally-recognized as a passionate and outspoken critic of Mugabe and the ZANU-PF government. However, he has much less resonance within Zimbabwe, in part because he is also an outspoken--and often trenchant--critic of other Mugabe opponents. In that regard, his comments regarding Tsvangirai are neither new nor completely without basis. What is new is his praise for Mutambara at a time when he and his faction have all but disappeared from view and when much of the MDC has realized (septel) that they need to reunite to be effective ) and under Tsvangirai because there is currently no other opposition leader with his stature and reach. DELL