Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06HARARE1294
2006-10-30 15:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:
LOW VOTER TURNOUT LEADS TO BIG ZANU-PF WIN
how-toVZCZCXYZ0003 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHSB #1294/01 3031555 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 301555Z OCT 06 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0742 INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1346 RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1198 RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1350 RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0101 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0611 RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 0976 RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1404 RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 3782 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1173 RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 1825 RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC RUFGNOA/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1567
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001294
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: LOW VOTER TURNOUT LEADS TO BIG ZANU-PF WIN
REF: A. HARARE 1283
B. HARARE 1235
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d
-------
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001294
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: LOW VOTER TURNOUT LEADS TO BIG ZANU-PF WIN
REF: A. HARARE 1283
B. HARARE 1235
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) Preliminary results reported in the
government-controlled press today are calling Saturday's
rural district council elections a ZANU-PF victory. Official
results are expected by Tuesday, October 31. The key feature
of the elections was very low voter turnout. Initial reports
from election observers (including embassy officers) also
noted some isolated incidents of intimidation and violence,
including government distribution of food to influence
voters. End Summary.
--------------
ZANU-PF's Expected Win
--------------
2. (U) Saturday, October 28 was election day for 1,326 rural
district council seats throughout the country. As expected,
ZANU-PF appears to have maintained its traditional dominance
in rural areas (Ref A). Official results will not be
released by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) until
Tuesday, October 31. However, the country's two daily
newspapers, The Herald and The Daily Mirror, both controlled
by the government, claimed sweeping victories for ZANU-PF.
ZANU-PF had won 454 seats before the elections were even
held, thanks to the de-registration of hundreds of opposition
candidates (Ref B).
3. (U) In the day's most closely watched election, the race
for mayor in Kadoma, a medium-sized city in Mashonaland West,
the incumbent ZANU-PF mayor Fani Phiri appears to have won
reelection against the anti-Senate MDC candidate Jonas
Ndenda. Unofficial results published in The Herald showed
that Phiri received 4,614 votes while Ndenda received 2,491
votes.
-------------- -
Marred By Low Voter Turnout and GOZ Misconduct
-------------- -
4. (SBU) The Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN),which
fielded 520 observers nationwide, and the embassy officers
acting as observers identified low turnout as the key
characteristic of the elections. The preliminary results
from Kadoma, for instance, showed that slightly more than
7,000 people voted in an area with 42,000 registered voters.
In the 2002 mayoral election in Kadoma, 13,000 people voted,
with ZANU-PF garnering 6,886 votes and the MDC 6,214 votes.
Moreover, election observers reported short lines and low
turnout at most polling stations throughout the country.
5. (C) The elections, though relatively peaceful, were also
marred by government misconduct. According to ZESN about
1000 voters were excluded in Kadoma for improper
registration, a sizable percentage of the total turnout
there. There were also media reports that the government
distributed food aid in the weeks prior to the election to
influence voters. MDC officials told emboffs that a number
of traditional leaders, co-opted by ZANU-PF, had pressured
their constituents to support the ruling party. Finally,
unknown assailants vandalized the home of the anti-Senate MDC
candidate for Kadoma mayor by throwing rocks through the
front windows on the eve of the election.
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) A culture of intimidation, election fatigue developed
in past elections, and an overwhelming sense of futility
appears to have led to voter apathy and low turnout. Many
voters were afraid of repercussions for voting against the
government or, if not afraid, felt their votes would have no
effect. These elections drive home the point that what is
important is not merely the act of voting but the entire
process of candidate registration, voter registration, voter
education, and campaigning. They also underscore ZANU-PF's
effectiveness at fighting back against a once surging MDC by
mixing violence and a sense of hopelessness in the face of a
ZANU juggernaut to discourage an already hard-pressed
electorate.
7. (U) We plan to attend the ZESN post-election briefing
scheduled for Tuesday, October 31, and will report in septel
on the official results of the election as well as ZESN's
analysis of the low turnout.
DELL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: LOW VOTER TURNOUT LEADS TO BIG ZANU-PF WIN
REF: A. HARARE 1283
B. HARARE 1235
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) Preliminary results reported in the
government-controlled press today are calling Saturday's
rural district council elections a ZANU-PF victory. Official
results are expected by Tuesday, October 31. The key feature
of the elections was very low voter turnout. Initial reports
from election observers (including embassy officers) also
noted some isolated incidents of intimidation and violence,
including government distribution of food to influence
voters. End Summary.
--------------
ZANU-PF's Expected Win
--------------
2. (U) Saturday, October 28 was election day for 1,326 rural
district council seats throughout the country. As expected,
ZANU-PF appears to have maintained its traditional dominance
in rural areas (Ref A). Official results will not be
released by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) until
Tuesday, October 31. However, the country's two daily
newspapers, The Herald and The Daily Mirror, both controlled
by the government, claimed sweeping victories for ZANU-PF.
ZANU-PF had won 454 seats before the elections were even
held, thanks to the de-registration of hundreds of opposition
candidates (Ref B).
3. (U) In the day's most closely watched election, the race
for mayor in Kadoma, a medium-sized city in Mashonaland West,
the incumbent ZANU-PF mayor Fani Phiri appears to have won
reelection against the anti-Senate MDC candidate Jonas
Ndenda. Unofficial results published in The Herald showed
that Phiri received 4,614 votes while Ndenda received 2,491
votes.
-------------- -
Marred By Low Voter Turnout and GOZ Misconduct
-------------- -
4. (SBU) The Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN),which
fielded 520 observers nationwide, and the embassy officers
acting as observers identified low turnout as the key
characteristic of the elections. The preliminary results
from Kadoma, for instance, showed that slightly more than
7,000 people voted in an area with 42,000 registered voters.
In the 2002 mayoral election in Kadoma, 13,000 people voted,
with ZANU-PF garnering 6,886 votes and the MDC 6,214 votes.
Moreover, election observers reported short lines and low
turnout at most polling stations throughout the country.
5. (C) The elections, though relatively peaceful, were also
marred by government misconduct. According to ZESN about
1000 voters were excluded in Kadoma for improper
registration, a sizable percentage of the total turnout
there. There were also media reports that the government
distributed food aid in the weeks prior to the election to
influence voters. MDC officials told emboffs that a number
of traditional leaders, co-opted by ZANU-PF, had pressured
their constituents to support the ruling party. Finally,
unknown assailants vandalized the home of the anti-Senate MDC
candidate for Kadoma mayor by throwing rocks through the
front windows on the eve of the election.
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) A culture of intimidation, election fatigue developed
in past elections, and an overwhelming sense of futility
appears to have led to voter apathy and low turnout. Many
voters were afraid of repercussions for voting against the
government or, if not afraid, felt their votes would have no
effect. These elections drive home the point that what is
important is not merely the act of voting but the entire
process of candidate registration, voter registration, voter
education, and campaigning. They also underscore ZANU-PF's
effectiveness at fighting back against a once surging MDC by
mixing violence and a sense of hopelessness in the face of a
ZANU juggernaut to discourage an already hard-pressed
electorate.
7. (U) We plan to attend the ZESN post-election briefing
scheduled for Tuesday, October 31, and will report in septel
on the official results of the election as well as ZESN's
analysis of the low turnout.
DELL