UPCOMING RURAL ELECTIONS LIKELY TO DEMONSTRATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001283 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR S. HILL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC ZI SUBJECT: UPCOMING RURAL ELECTIONS LIKELY TO DEMONSTRATE ZANU-PF STRANGLEHOLD REF: REFTEL: HARARE 1235 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Rural district council elections to be held on October 28 are expected to reinforce the ruling party's hold over the rural areas. ZANU-PF has already secured a third of the 1,328 council seats after several hundred would-be opposition candidates were barred from nomination. The anti-Senate faction of the MDC will field candidates nationwide, while the pro-Senate faction is confined primarily to Matabeleland; the two factions will face off in more than 50 races in those provinces. The Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN),plans to field 520 observers nationwide and to conduct a parallel vote count in a sampling of wards. End Summary. -------------- ZANU-PF A Step Ahead In Saturday's Poll -------------- ¶2. (U) October 28 marks election day for 1,328 rural district council seats in all but two constituencies nationwide ) rural council races in Chikomba and Rushinga were held earlier this month to coincide with parliamentary by-elections in those constituencies (retel). Also on the same day urban council elections will take place in five cities as well as a mayoral election in Kadoma that pits an anti-Senate MDC candidate against the ZANU-PF incumbent, who ZESN observers suggest is likely to eke out a victory. ¶3. (U) The preelection period has been relatively peaceful. ZESN has confirmed one incident of political violence, while additional cases alleged by the opposition have been relatively few as compared to past elections. ZESN also has reported several instances of intimidation by traditional leaders in Manicaland and is investigating alleged cases in other provinces. Additionally, the leader of Zimbabwe's traditional chiefs, Forunte Charumbira, is quoted in an independent online newspaper as saying that opposition supporters should be evicted by traditional authorities. ¶4. (U) At the close of the nomination courts on September 20, ZANU-PF had emerged the uncontested winner of 455 seats, while eight opposition candidates were similarly named victors unopposed. However, both factions of the MDC have claimed the GOZ slanted the nomination process to preclude more than 500 would-be candidates between the two from throwing their hats into the ring. The opposition has focused its blame on a new nomination procedure that requires a candidate to secure police clearance. This process requires that a candidate pay Z$2,000 for processing (US$8 at the official rate) and submit their fingerprints to police headquarters in Harare for vetting. Allegedly, many MDC candidates were unable to obtain the requisite clearance. -------------- -------------- MDC Factions Face Off, ZANU-PF Splinter Party Contends -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Candidates from the two factions of the MDC will face off in 52 races nationwide, three-quarters of which are in Matabeleland and Midlands, potentially splitting votes there favor of the ruling party candidates. Pro-Senate MDC officials have told us that they had decided not to field candidates in many races in the other provinces for fear of HARARE 00001283 002 OF 002 splitting the vote. (Note: Resource constraints and an inability to find willing candidates were probably also important factors.) By comparison, the anti-Senate MDC has fielded candidates nationwide and its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, in the past weeks has held several well-attended SIPDIS rallies in Ndebele provinces, the de facto home of the pro-Senate faction. ¶6. (SBU) Also fielding candidates in its first nationwide elections, former-ruling party official Daniel Shumba's United People's Party (UPP) ) which is widely seen as a front for ZANU-PF faction leader Emmerson Mnangagwa's post-Mugabe succession ambitions - will contest 55 council seats. The majority of these seats are in Masvingo, the heartland of the Karanga sub-ethnic group of the Shona, who are increasingly unnerved by the elevation of rival Zezuru politicians within ZANU-PF. Additionally, seven candidates from the marginal ZANU Ndongo party and 18 independents will run. -------------- A Real Test For Local Observers -------------- ¶7. (SBU) ZESN plans to accredit 520 observers across the country, focusing on the race contested by both MDC factions in Matabeleland where 176 observers will be deployed. Twenty of the observers nationwide will be mobile to watch for potential flare-ups away from polling stations. The remaining observers will be stationed at polling stations at a sampling of wards where ZESN will conduct a parallel vote count. ZESN does not have the resources to mount a parallel count in all races, but instead will attempt to target those races it believes could serve as indicators for the rest. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) ZANU-PF is likely to retain a large number of the rural council seats in large part due to its manipulation of media outlets, traditional leaders, and the campaign process. However, the opposition may be able to capitalize on growing discontent over the economy to score some victories ) such as its victory in a communal area in the Chikomba rural council elections earlier this month (reftel). Key races to watch will be in Matabeleland, as an indicator of the relative strengths of the two MDC factions, and in Masvingo, where Shumba's UPP could tap into underlying Karanga unease over Mnangagwa's apparent sidelining in the ZANU-PF succession battle. DELL