CURRENCY CHANGEOVER SPARKS CONFUSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 001010 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR H.SERVIN-BAEZ SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE STATE PASS TO USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E.LOKEN TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND B. CUSHMAN COMMERCE FOR B. ERKUL E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2015 TAGS: ASEC ECON PGOV PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: CURRENCY CHANGEOVER SPARKS CONFUSION REF: REFTEL: HARARE 970 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) With five business days remaining until the currency conversion deadline of August 21, business contacts tell us the country is woefully unprepared for the expiration of the old bearer checks. Most businesses have suspended or significantly reduced sales, chiefly of imports, rather than deal with the confusion of operating in two currency schemes. The new checks are increasingly common in Harare, but transactions in the old checks still dominate and the dissemination of information regarding the redenomination to the rural areas appears weak. Meanwhile, the police and youth militias continue to seize large sums of cash at border point and roadblock, although several contacts say the number is probably exaggerated for political reasons. Against this massive confusion, those with cash have stocked up on basic necessities and flocked to secure assets, such as the stock market, hard currency, and durable goods. The political opposition has voiced concerns over the conversion, but has otherwise not tapped into the conversion as issue to attack the GOZ on. Anger is building as people realize that their cash holdings are soon to be worthless, but the heavy police and youth militia presence nationwide suggests that GOZ remains ready to clamp down at the first signs of unrest. End Summary. -------------- Redenomination Leaves Business Whizzing -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Zimbabwean businesses have done little to prepare for the bearer check switch announced by Reserve Bank Governor Gono on July 31 (reftel),according to Olivine managing director Ian MacKenzie. For example, insurance broker Grant Gore told poloff on August 10 that his company had yet to pay the US$2,000 necessary to purchase and install new accounting software to manage the transition. For its part, MacKenzie told econoff on August 3 that Olivine suspended all sales for about five days immediately after the July 31 statement to convert its bookkeeping system. Meikles Africa director of retail Dave Mills told econoff on August 11 that the retail association had appealed to the Reserve Bank to extend the conversion period. ¶3. (SBU) Those businesses that have remained open have significantly reduced sales of imported goods, according to several contacts and observations from Embassy staff around Harare. Commercial Farmers' Union President Doug Taylor-Freeme told econoff on August 10 that businesses had cut back on sales of high-value items, like generators, especially because the replacement costs were too high in this time of currency uncertainty. Mills said that its TM supermarket chain, while adhering to the GOZ,s price freeze, had taken imported food and beverages off the shelf rather than face the run on these products. Fuel also has become especially scarce as traders withhold stock in anticipation of a massive depreciation of the currency on the parallel market. Mills predicted that inflation will shoot up on August 22 as merchants return goods to the shelves and the Reserve Bank's price freeze ends. HARARE 00001010 002 OF 004 -------------- Spread of New Checks Limited -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The revalued bearer checks have become increasingly common in Harare over the past few days, but payment in the old checks is still the norm and most of the city's ATMs still disburse the old money. Nonetheless, the Embassy's economic assistant visited several banks in downtown Harare on August 10, where bank managers said they had sufficient stocks of the new checks. Meikles retail director Dave Mills told econoff on August 11 that his stores were seeing only 13 percent of sales in the new currency. MacKenzie said that he anticipated chaos at 4pm on August 21 when the banks close to the public. Mills also predicted &agitation,8 particularly at the interface of banks and supermarkets with the public. ¶5. (SBU) Economic analyst John Robertson on August 10 told econoff that Zimbabwe's rural areas would be hardest hit by the conversion. The rural areas hold a large proportion of the country's cash as farmers attempt to smooth out revenue earned from crop sales over an entire year's worth of purchases. Particularly at this time of year, the cotton-growing communal areas are awash in cash, according to Mills. Moreover, most rural households are located too far from banks to make the conversion feasible. Suggesting that massive sums of cash could be wiped out overnight in the rural areas, Roberston said that this could be the worst own goal ever scored by ZANU-PF. Elaborating on this point, economic professor Tony Hawkins told econoff on August 8 that Gono, his former student, "had gone crazy". -------------- A License To Steal -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Police, the revenue authority, and the youth militia have stepped up the number of roadblocks and border checks following Gono's statement and continue to seize cash holdings arbitrarily deemed to be "excessive." Contacts tell us that police often do not issue receipts, leading many to believe that they are pocketing the funds. Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights (ZLHR) has publicly condemned the seizures as an illegal operation designed only to loot money from unsuspecting travelers. The lawyers noted the use of ruling party youth militias at the roadblocks represented serious human rights abuses, such as forcing women to strip naked and be subjected to indecent searches. -------------- Hyping for Political Points -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Business contacts tell us, however, that the number of arrests and money seizures is probably far less than the figure trumpeted in the official press. The state-controlled Herald on August 9 reported that some 3,199 individuals had been arrested for contravening monetary regulations, netting a total of Z$10.6 trillion (or US$42 million at the new devalued official rate). Old Mutual managing director Zomunoda Chizura told econoff on August 10 that the official confiscation figure was impossible due to the sheer volume of currency supposedly involved. Noting that few business contacts had first hand knowledge of such arrests or seizures, financial consultant Emma Fundira on August 8 told poloff that the Reserve Bank was likely inflating the numbers to demonstrate that its otherwise inept policy was working. HARARE 00001010 003 OF 004 ¶8. (SBU) There is also widespread speculation in Harare that Reserve Bank Governor Gono is manipulating media coverage of the conversion to enlarge his public role. Days after he issued the monetary statement, state-controlled media gave front-page coverage to his tour of downtown businesses to explain the conversion. Meanwhile, rumors are circulating that a fire at one of Gono's maize farms on August 4 might have been intentionally set to garner public sympathy for the Reserve Bank Governor. Possibly adding credence to these rumors, Taylor-Freeme tells us that fire in a maize field at this time of year is not a problem as the husk protects the cob; he even noted that some farmers intentionally burn the field to ease harvesting. -------------- Fleeing to Safe Haven -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Uncertainty over the issuance of new bearer checks has prompted a rush to perceived saf investments, such as consumable goods, durable oods that can be resold, and stocks. Meikles, Mils noted that its supermarket sales were &phenomnal, unprecedented,8 as consumers spent excess csh. Visits to Harare stores, especially the week of the statement, showed that consumers were buying an exceptionally large amount of goods, presumably preferring to spend their old money rather than convert it. Meanwhile, individuals with cash holdings in excess of the proscribed deposit limits appear to be purchasing luxury goods that will retain their value once the conversion is complete. For instance, we have heard from numerous contacts that one person recently purchased ten luxury cars in cash. ¶10. (SBU) Stock trader Ndodana Mguquka on August 10 told poloff that the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) had skyrocketed since the statement, in part due to individuals looking to reduce their cash holdings. Mguquka noted that the bull market actually started a week before the statement and suggested that it might have been caused by Gono's associates who had been tipped off. Meanwhile, Old Mutual's Chizura told econoff on August 10 that his company's stock had surged 140 percent this month. Old Mutual stock, which is traded both on the local and British markets, was especially attractive to investors who can buy the stock in Zimbabwean dollars and sell it, albeit with considerable administrative hurdles, for hard currency on the London exchange. Chizura calculated that the relative prices of the stock on both markets implied an exchange rate of Z$1.33 million to the US$ (old denomination). ¶11. (SBU) The parallel exchange rate has also spiked due to the uncertainty, however a police crackdown on forex merchants and an apparent lack of cash has worked to arrest the appreciation. The rate is roughly Z$650,000 to the US dollar ) more or less in line with the price of one liter of fuel. We have also heard from some sources that the new bearer checks are trading at a slightly higher premium against the US$. -------------- Limited Political Response -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Both factions of the opposition MDC have publicly condemned the bearer check conversion as a half-measure that does not address the country's fundamental political and economic crisis. Spinning Gono's "zeros to heros" rhetoric, HARARE 00001010 004 OF 004 anti-Senate MDC economic spokesperson Tapiwa Mashakada issued a statement on August 1 that Mugabe was the only zero that had to go. There has yet to be any indication, however, that the political opposition plans to seize on the conversion's potential to wipe out massive sums of wealth as a political lever against the government. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Large traders are probably moving deftly to protect themselves, buying goods and stocks, and where need be bribing RBZ officials. Business will almost certainly survive the bearer check conversion, albeit at significant expense and much headache. We would be quite surprised if "special arrangements were not put in place to ensure that the political elite were insulated from the fallout. Unhappy with the lack of prior notice, many ZANU-PF insiders have blamed Gono and the threats against him were growing in volume until Mugabe himself spoke in the governor's defense. Coming against the background of already high tensions over the Mugabe succession, and growing speculation about Gono's political ambitions, the currency conversion has the potential to spark a rebellion within government ranks. Mugabe and Gono are likely to anticipate this and conclude that it is wiser to let party elites preserve their financial assets then risk a real crisis. Should the intra-party pressure become too much, Gono maintains the ability to announce an extension of the conversion deadline, a move that would no doubt be spun as a magnanimous move to help rural farmers. ¶14. (C) Of greater concern, however, is the large number of people who operate outside the formal banking sector. This includes not only those in the rural areas ) the ruling party's heartland ) but also a significant share of the urban population who have resorted to informal trading to survive. This program, launched without prior consultation and with insufficient time, will almost certainly erase a significant amount of wealth from the country's most vulnerable. The political consequences are, however, uncertain and will depend on how the opposition responds. Much like last year's Operation Restore Order, the opposition has an opportunity to galvanize popular sentiment against GOZ's corrupt policies, but so far has failed to capitalize on the opportunity. We agree with Robertson that this could be the greatest own goal scored by ZANU-PF, but the opposition must act first. The GOZ appears to be putting a two-fold strategy in place in anticipation of a popular reaction. First, it has launched a major, and so far successful, propaganda campaign to convince ordinary Zimbabweans that "zeros to heroes" has begun to lower prices and squelch inflation. It may be some time before the less sophisticated public sees through the government's claims and realizes that inflation continues to soar. Second, the GOZ appears to have its security forces on high alert in order to stamp out any signs of protest. Given the lack of a clear lead from the political opposition and the known passivity of the populace, there is a very good chance Gono will win his gamble, at least in the near-term. Over the longer-term, however, this could well prove to have been yet another milestone in Zimbabwe's economic collapse and the eventual political fallout from it. DELL