GVN TO PRESENT MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM AI STRATEGY;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 000837 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR G, CA/OCS/ACS/EAP, EAP/EX, EAP/MLS, EAP/EP, INR, OES/STC (PBATES),OES/IHA (DSINGER AND NCOMELLA),AND MED STATE PASS TO USAID FOR ANE AND GH (DCARROLL, SCLEMENTS AND PCHAPLIN) STATE PASS TO USTR (ELENA BRYAN) STATE PASS TO HHS/OGHA (WSTIEGER, EELVANDER AND ABHAT) USDA PASS TO APHIS DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP (LSTERN) BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID (MFRIEDMAN, JMACARTHUR AND MBRADY) ROME FOR FAO SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: TBIO KFLU AMED AMGT CASC EAGR PINR SOCI VM SUBJECT: GVN TO PRESENT MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM AI STRATEGY; PRAISE AND CALLS FOR CONTINUED DONOR SUPPORT FROM THE UN HANOI 00000837 001.2 OF 004 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. DO NOT POST ON THE INTERNET. REF: (A) Hanoi 800 and previous ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Ambassador Marine attended the Monthly Donor Group Forum on Avian Influenza (AI) on April 7. Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Cao Duc Phat and Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza David Nabarro were keynote speakers. Phat stressed that although there have been no AI outbreaks in poultry since December 2005, AI remains a threat in Vietnam, and asked for continued donor support. He noted that the GVN will present a draft of its medium and long- term National Preparedness Plan, also referred to as the "Green Book" to international donors for comment on April 12, and to the Review Team of the World Bank and other donors in mid-April. Nabarro praised Vietnam's efforts and success in managing AI, but stressed that the threat remains high, and called for donors to continue their support. He gave an overview of the global AI situation, noting the exponential increase in the number of countries affected by AI, and elaborated on funding frameworks and national preparedness plan fundamentals. Nabarro and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) representative Christina Amaral made a point to express to the Ambassador their appreciation for the United States' contributions. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Ambassador Marine attended the Monthly Donor Group Forum on AI on April 7. Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Cao Duc Phat and Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza David Nabarro were keynote speakers. A representative of the Ministry of Health also made brief remarks. Heads of Mission, and representatives from multilateral agencies participated in the meeting. Phat: Vietnam Turning to Medium and Long-Term Strategies -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Phat stressed that while Vietnam has had no AI outbreaks in poultry since December 2005, the GVN continues to see AI as a threat and remains on high alert. Of particular concern is that Muscovy ducks may have become a virus reservoir, and there is a booming illegal cross-border trade in chickens and ducks from China. A new round of vaccinations targeted at 34 high-risk provinces has begun, and a poultry disinfection campaign continues. The government is looking into how to raise, slaughter and market chicken in a manner that reduces the threat of AI. The National Committee on AI meets weekly, and has instructed all provinces to take uniform anti-AI measures. The focus is on education, since there is a feeling that there has been relaxation after several months without an AI outbreak. Phat asked donors to continue working with the GVN in recognition that AI remains a threat. ¶4. (SBU) MARD has been encouraged by the international support received after the January Beijing Conference on AI, HANOI 00000837 002.2 OF 004 where Vietnam presented its "Preparedness Plan to Control Epizootic and Human Pandemic for the Period 2006-2008" also referred to as the "Red Book". An inter-agency working group led by MARD was established to formulate a medium and long-term National Preparedness Plan to control and eradicate AI. A draft of this plan, referred to as the "Green Book", will be circulated to international donors for comments on April 12, and will be presented to the Review team of the World Bank and other donors in mid-April. Key elements of the strategy are disease control, activity consolidation, and disease eradication. ¶5. (SBU) Poultry vaccination, this year targeted in 34 provinces, remains a key element of Vietnam's anti-AI strategy. In addition, all farmers are required to disinfect their facilities while public authorities are to disinfect markets, slaughterhouses and other public areas where fowl are present. Particular attention is being paid to stopping the illegal import of chickens and ducks from China. Efforts are being made to restructure the poultry industry in order to increase bio-security. The government is also seeking to increase veterinary services capacity, and to develop a vaccine locally, especially for ducks, using virus donated by the WHO. In response to donor questions, Phat stated that while vaccination is not a panacea and is costly, it has been an important strategy in Vietnam, where the H5N1 virus is endemic in chickens and ducks. Nabarro added that vaccination has a clear role in countries where AI is endemic, though not all these countries are automatically candidates for vaccination campaigns. He said that the FAO is continually reviewing its risk assessment and monitoring the situation in these countries. Nabarro: Praise for Vietnam and the AI Global Overview -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Nabarro highly praised Vietnam's efforts and success in managing AI since the disease was discovered. He stressed, however, that the threat remains high, and called for donors to continue their support. Vietnam is a test case whose government has demonstrated a commitment to contributing to the global good and needs to receive adequate resources. It is also the source of a potential global threat if Vietnam's Muscovy ducks have become a virus reservoir, he noted. During general discussion, EC Ambassador Markus Cornaro concurred that Vietnam should not be penalized for having responded quickly and should remain a high funding priority. (Note: Nabarro and FAO representative Christina Amaral both made a point to express to the Ambassador their appreciation for the United States' delivery on its pledges. End note.) ¶7. (SBU) Nabarro gave an overview of the current global AI situation, which has developed into a rapidly changing epizootic, the animal equivalent of a pandemic. Since January, over 30 countries have reported outbreaks of AI in birds, twice the number reported in the previous 2 1/2 years. The UN head veterinarian believes that in the next HANOI 00000837 003.2 OF 004 two months AI will appear in an increasing number of countries, and will infect a proportionally higher number of birds. AI has been spreading west from Southeast Asia along both migratory and trade routes, as infected chicks and eggs are traded and smuggled, he observed. ¶8. (SBU) Nabarro said there are three possible scenarios in which AI would be transmittable between humans and became a pandemic: a) mild; b) several milder events that recur over a number of years; c) a dramatic event on the scale of the 1918 flu, which is the least likely but also the most serious. In response to questions, Nabarro said that although he is not convinced of the cyclicity of flu pandemics, he is certain of their inevitability, and that the change in H5N1's infectivity characteristics is cause for alarm. The impact of a flu pandemic would have negative effects on people's livelihoods, human health, governments, rule of law, and the global economic system, and would increase humanitarian needs, Nabarro continued. In response countries need to formulate plans to: stop AI in animals; prevent a pandemic from developing by limiting human exposure to diseased birds; and mitigate quickly should a pandemic develop. National AI plans should address: animal health; bio-security; public health; continued government and rule of law; sustainability of economic and social systems; a vulnerability assessment; and providing humanitarian aid. In addition to short-term emergency action plans, national plans should include medium-term plans for government investment in AI prevention, development of a strong evidence base and institutions, capacity building, and long-term technical assistance. Financing National Plans -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The emphasis of financial support remains on national plans, channeled through direct-bilateral aid, multi-donor trust funds established in country, and International Development Association (IDA) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD) loans available to cover otherwise unfunded elements of the national plan. Additional financing is available through regional institutions and networks, and multilateral institutions such as the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE),and NGOs such as the Red Cross. Responding to donor questions, Nabarro explained that the UN will provide technical assistance through its specialized agencies, while the World Bank and regional development banks will be major sources of financing and expertise in designing effective financial frameworks and capacity building. Nabarro noted that the USD 1.9 billion estimate for addressing AI worldwide that was discussed in Beijing was based on calculations done in a period where only approximately ten countries had reported AI cases. ¶10. (SBU) Nabarro stated that countries need to establish a national level task force to develop an integrated plan, that will include transition from a crisis to a long-term response. Joint appraisal and prioritization with the donor HANOI 00000837 004.2 OF 004 community is critical to identify plan funding. The appraisal should establish that the plan is reflective of circumstances; has support at a high political level; is evidence based; incorporates a sound technical strategy; and, has community engagement, an implicit capacity to address the problem, and crisis response triggers. Plans should be coordinated in country at all levels and include civil society, and on the regional and international levels. Priorities should include: assessing the ever-changing situation and the risks to the population, especially the poor; establishing an evidence base; distributing information; maintaining animal health; engaging the public health sector; and providing for the continuity of the economic, governmental, and social sectors in the event of a pandemic. In response to a question from the Ambassador, Nabarro said that the UN is taking lessons learned from Vietnam, China, Laos and Cambodia to reduce the learning curve in countries experiencing H5N1 more recently. MARINE