LEADERSHIP RUMORS ABOUND FOLLOWING THE 14TH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 000767 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM KIRF VM SUBJECT: LEADERSHIP RUMORS ABOUND FOLLOWING THE 14TH PARTY PLENUM REF: A) Hanoi 222, B) Hanoi 596 HANOI 00000767 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Rumors continue to swirl about the likely changes in Vietnam's leadership following the 10th Party Congress in April. They have grown especially intense since last week's close of the 14th Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party (CPV),which announced that it had put together its list of eligible candidates for the next Central Committee (to be elected during the Party Congress) and had decided on some Politburo recommendations. Our most plugged-in insiders have contradictory, though authoritatively stated, predictions about the leadership slate. We note that in the last Party Congress, the Central Committee threw out the Politburo's recommendations altogether and booted surprised General Secretary Le Ka Phieu to the curb. As explained to us by the Chairman of the U.S.-Vietnam Society, "...at this time, all of Vietnam is very busy helping the Party Personnel Committee with their work." This is leadership politics, Vietnam-style. End Summary. Candidates to Next Central Committee Certified -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) The CPV's Central Committee met March 20-25 in its 14th Plenum to agree to a list of eligible candidates for the next Central Committee, which will be submitted to the 10th Party Congress (now scheduled for April 18-25) for its endorsement. The Plenum also discussed a draft working agenda, working regulations and voting procedures for the Congress, and passed them on to the Politburo to complete for submission to the Congress. One scenario -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Ngo Cuong, Editor-in-Chief of the Supreme People's Court (SPC)-affiliated Judicial Journal, reported that according to his boss and mentor, SPC Presiding Judge Nguyen Van Hien, the plenum approved separate lists of 175 possible nominees and 31 candidate-alternates to the new Central Committee, from which 160 official members and 25 alternates (who will not have voting rights) will be selected during the Party Congress. ¶4. (SBU) Hien also said the plenum discussed whether current Politburo members may be retained for the next Politburo. They reached consensus that only six of the current 14 Politburo members can continue to serve in the next Central Committee and on the next Politburo. These six are 1) Party Secretary Nong Duc Manh, 2) Ho Chi Minh City Party Chief Nguyen Minh Triet, 3) Standing Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung, 4) Hanoi Party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong, 5) CPV Central Economic Commission Director Truong Tan Sang and 6) Public Security Minister Le Hong Anh. Manh, Triet, Dzung and Trong will likely take the four top positions of Party Chief, State President, Prime Minister, and National Assembly Chairman, Hien said. Nguyen Van Chi, currently a Secretariat member and head of the CPV Control Commission (the CPV's inspectorate),will likely replace Phan Dzien as the permanent member of the Secretariat, the Deputy Party Secretary position. (Note: These predictions have appeared in the Japanese press. End Note.) ¶5. (SBU) Hien also reportedly said the plenum agreed to convene a 15th (and final) Plenum right before the Party Congress takes place to review other eligible candidates for the next Politburo and Secretariat. Also, during the 14th Plenum, Party Chief Manh was asked to take the positions of State President and Party Chief following the Party Congress, but he refused to accept the offer. (Note: Conflation of the party secretary role and the presidency has been a perennial proposal in Vietnamese politics. End Note.) Another Version -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Offering a somewhat different prediction, Senior Colonel Tran Nhung, former chief of the international affairs division of Quan Doi Nhan Dan (People's Army) newspaper, says that Triet will replace HANOI 00000767 002.2 OF 004 Manh as Party Chief at the next Party Congress, while Manh will likely become the President. He asserted that Control Commission chief Nguyen Van Chi will replace Tran Dinh Hoan as chief of the CPV Personnel Commission, and Truong Tan Sang, head of the Economic Commission, may well replace Phan Dzien. He also said participants the 14th Plenum reached consensus that the Party Chief will be approved by all members attending the Party Congress. This should be considered a sign of improved democracy within the Party's activities at the top level, Nhung averred. (Note: According to current Party statutes, the Party Chief is elected by members of the new Central Committee, not the entire Party Congress. End Note.) ¶7. (SBU) Legally, leadership changes made at the Party Congress do not take effect until the National Assembly (NA) officially approves them. Nhung said this will occur at the NA's spring session, which is now slated for May 16-June 27. He explained this unusually rapid transition by quoting his mentor, NA Chairman Nguyen Van An, who said that new nominations are essential to "showcase Vietnam's intention toward long-term leadership credibility," especially given that the country is hosting the next APEC summit. Official sources at the Office of the National Assembly (ONA) hinted that the NA will likely discuss issues of top personnel positions at the end of its forthcoming session. And Another Version... -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Nguyen Chi Dzung, former Editor-in-Chief of the ONA-affiliated Legislative Journal, said Triet will be President, as Manh will likely retain his position as Party Chief for at least half a term of the next Central Committee, to be replaced by Triet, who will then concurrently take the two top positions. According to Dzung, Triet is supported by "progressive elements" within the Party, including Vo Van Kiet and Nguyen Tan Dzung. However, given opposition from conservative elements, and in order to avoid any psychological frustration with respect to the issue of geographical representation, such a circuitous transition is important, Dzung asserted. New Voting and Working Regulations -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Also according to Dzung, Nhung and Ngo Van Hoa, a professor from the Institute of History, the 12th Plenum (held in December 2005) agreed that there would be no "preparatory meeting" before the main Party Congress, and that there will be no foreign guests invited to attend the Congress. Such changes in working regulations are designed to "facilitate true discussions" on critical issues, including the assignment of top personnel, to avoid what has been the customary historical practice that all significant issues are discussed and decided upon during a preparatory meeting, Hoa asserted. ¶10. (SBU) Hoa noted that no officials of the Communist Party of Vietnam attended the Congress in February of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party, which suggests there will be no foreign delegations, including those from Laos and China, attending the next CPV's own Congress. (Note: Vietnam, Laos, China and Cambodia's communist parties have long maintained a tradition of exchanging delegations to each other's Congresses. China's Hu Jintao, who was then Vice President, and the former Lao Party Chief attended the 9th CPV Party Congress in 2001. End Note.) ¶11. (SBU) According to Senior Colonel Nhung, the new working regulations may lead to last-minute changes in the list of candidates for the next Central Committee and Politburo even though they have already been certified by the retiring Central Committee. Members of the sixty-four provincial delegations and five delegations representing the seven Party "blocs" (foreign relations, mass mobilization, science and education, ideology and culture, internal affairs, military affairs and public security),may take the opportunity to introduce new names during the formal Congress, Nhung asserted. HANOI 00000767 003.2 OF 004 ¶12. (SBU) Dzung, Hoa and Nhung also noted that the 12th Plenum had decided that officials holding top positions do not necessarily have to correspond to geographical representation, a significant change from the existing decades-long arrangement whereby the three top leadership slots are divided among northern, central and southern candidates. Dzung said it is possible that Triet, who is from the south, may be selected as Party Chief during the upcoming Congress, with Nguyen Tan Dzung (another southerner) nominated to the premiership, which is "a scenario that conservative elements within the Party would hate to see." Dzung also repeated a proliferating rumor about a recent lunch hosted by former State President Le Duc Anh for six of the eight retiring Politburo members and former Party Chief Do Muoi. The alleged purpose of that unconfirmed lunch was to prevent both Triet and DPM Dzung from taking leadership positions. There had been discussions before the 14th Plenum on whether to also retain Nguyen Van An from the North as the new Party Chief in the next Central Committee as a compromise solution, he said. Central Committee Warns Against Abuse of Democracy -------------- -------------- ¶13. (SBU) In addition to its personnel work, the 14th Plenum also reportedly attempted to temper the recent high volume of calls for political reform following the Secretariat's March release of the draft Political SIPDIS Report for public comment. While CPV-run dailies like Nhan Dan (The People) and Quan Doi Nhan Dan (People's Army) newspapers tended to only cover neutrally constructive comments, some leading print and electronic newspapers, namely Tuoi Tre (Youth) and Vietnam Net, pushed the envelope by publishing reader comments that questioned the so-called "transitional period to socialism in Vietnam." ¶14. (SBU) A formal announcement from the plenum claimed that "tens of thousands of people have contributed ideas" to the draft report, praised constructive comments, and noted that "the Central Committee strongly criticizes and rejects ill-intentioned and hostile opinions, abusing the consultation of the Political Report to distort, slander and tarnish the party, State and our people." On March 27, Nhan Dan newspaper started publishing articles to reaffirm Maxism-Lenism and Ho Chi Minh Thought as the Party's ideological foundation. These articles also attacked pluralism and underlined the importance of the CPV's leadership role. ¶15. (SBU) Dr. Hoang Ngoc Giao, a senior lecturer from Hanoi National University, said the Central Committee's warning and Nhan Dan's articles are discouraging, and reflect the CPV's "status-quo" approach to critical political and economic issues. Nhung and Dzung, however, said the extraordinary series of critical articles published ahead of the next Party Congress and the novel way the Congress will be conducted signal a trend toward more democracy in Vietnam. Party Discipline -------------- ¶16. (SBU) The 14th Plenum also confirmed the decision to reprimand Secretary of the Lang Son Provincial Party Committee Hoang Cong Hoan for poor leadership and "failure to follow Party procedures." According to contacts in the Party, the official censure was the final result of an expensive infrastructure debacle involving the decision to move a cement factory in Lan Son city and purchase new equipment for the factory. Lang Son Party officials traveled to China (without central permission, our contact said) and signed a deal to import new equipment for the factory when the old equipment was still serviceable. The new equipment turned out to be useless and cost Lang Son a substantial portion of its budget. The two Lang Son deputy Party Chiefs also received reprimands. Hoan, however, landed on his feet; although the Party decided to remove him from the Lang Son Party Secretary position, it has offered him a new one as the deputy Chairman of the CPV's Financial Affairs Commission in Hanoi, a more desirable and prestigious position. Comment HANOI 00000767 004.2 OF 004 -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Although the future government is starting to crystallize around specific individuals as the Party congress nears, we will not really know which factions are ascendant within the CPV until the Congress plays out. The half-hearted attempt to quash political debate in the final run-up suggests that the CPV will enter the Congress with a somewhat more reformist agenda, but we should expect that after the Congress there will be pressure on dissonant voices in the Party, the Government and the media to unite behind the new leadership and political platform. End Comment. MARINE