VIETNAM FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS ON CHINA, THE UNITED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 HANOI 000683

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL APEC ASEAN CH VM

SUBJECT: VIETNAM FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS ON CHINA, THE UNITED
STATES AND ASIAN REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE

REF: Hanoi 670

HANOI 00000683 001.2 OF 005



1. (SBU) Summary: During a frank discussion with visiting
Deputy NIO Terrence Markin and Poloff, senior officials at
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Institute for International
Relations (IIR) encouraged the United States to stay closely
engaged in Southeast Asia, but avoid making Southeast Asian
states uncomfortable; to participate in and shape regional
architecture institutions, but not insist on membership in
geographically restricted forums; to address the issue of
China's gains at U.S. expense, but not focus too much on
China; and, to involve itself in Southeast Asia's
development and evolution, but stay out of politics. The
mixed messages, delivered by some of Vietnam's top thinkers
on foreign policy, reflected Vietnam's ambivalence and
uncertainty about the role of the United States in the
region.


2. (SBU) Summary, cont'd: The officials grudgingly agreed
that continued (and deepened) U.S. involvement in Southeast
Asia is beneficial for regional stability and economic
development. U.S. involvement also acts as a comforting
balance to the rise of Chinese influence, which they also
agreed was a cause for worry and concern for Southeast Asia
in general and Vietnam in particular. The experts expressed
a desire for the reform of regional architecture
institutions and for ASEAN to become a stronger and more
coherent institution. The IIR Deputy Director General also
expressed a surprisingly positive and progressive view of
the political developments in Thailand and the Philippines,
in contrast to recent statements by other GVN officials
(reftel) who have cited events in Bangkok and Manila as
examples of dangerous instability. End Summary.

The Event
--------------


3. (SBU) Visiting Deputy National Intelligence Officer for
East Asia Terrence Markin, accompanied by Poloff, spent two
hours at the Vietnam Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Institute
for International Relations participating in a roundtable
discussion of U.S. involvement in Southeast Asia and Asian
regional architecture at the IIR headquarters in Hanoi. The
IIR participants (who all have advanced degrees from U.S.
institutions) included Deputy Director General and Director
of Research Dr. Hoang Anh Tuan, Director of the Center for
Southeast Asian Studies Dr. Luan Thuy Duong, Duong's deputy
Dang Cam Tu, Deputy Director of the Center for European and
American Studies Ta Minh Tuan and senior researcher Pham
Ngoc Uyen. All of the participants participated
enthusiastically in the discussion.

The Venue: IIR
--------------


4. (SBU) The Institute is Vietnam's premier degree-granting
international affairs university, diplomatic training
institution, think tank, research center and publishing
house all combined into a single entity. IIR researchers
and officials prepare classified policy analyses and teach
classes; they also attend international academic and foreign
policy conferences and publish books and articles. IIR
publishes a foreign affairs weekly magazine called
"International Weekly." The IIR Director General is a
senior diplomat; the current DG, Ambassador Trinh Quang
Thanh, has just been named the next Ambassador to Sweden.
IIR officials have wider latitude to express their personal
opinions and diverge from the official line than their
colleagues at MFA headquarters. However, they are insiders
and for the most part echo official GVN policy.

The Discussion
--------------


5. (SBU) Dr. Tuan said the United States' view of Southeast
Asia is distorted by its historical experience and needs to
be more "objective and accurate." The United States sees
Southeast Asian countries as economically backward,
marginalized by China and occupied with issues of radical
Islam. In fact, Southeast Asia is one of the fastest-
growing regions in the world economically despite the
setbacks of the 1997 financial crisis. Southeast Asia's
future is promising, with long and stable (though delayed)
development. There is also a solid foundation for democracy
and political development, as evidenced by the exercise of
"people power" in Thailand and the Philippines. Some in the
region see recent events in these countries as troubling,
and others see them as evidence of strong political growth

HANOI 00000683 002.2 OF 005


and increasing political participation by the population,
Tuan said.


6. (SBU) In response to Poloff's observation that others in
the GVN have told the Embassy that events in Thailand and
the Philippines are object lessons in why Vietnam should be
wary of democratic political development, Dr. Tuan grimaced
and commented that "there are different opinions within the
Government." Vietnam's lesson from the developments in the
Philippines and Thailand is that the Government needs to pay
close attention to the issues and concerns that are
important to the people, Dr. Tuan stated. The process of
globalization and improved communications technology means
that it is easy for citizens to detect inconsistency between
the words and actions of their governments, and then
immediately spread discontent.

China
--------------


7. (SBU) The IIR officials exhibited a common Vietnamese
contradiction: chiding the United States for excessive
focus on China, then virtually obsessing about China's
expanding influence and potential threat. Dr. Tuan, noting
the United States needs to understand the situation in
Southeast Asia vis-a-vis China, said Southeast Asia is seen
as a region that can be used to help contain China at a time
when a rising number of Americans see China as a threat. If
those trends continue, the United States may try to "get
Southeast Asia on its side" against China, which would be a
distortion of the actual situation. Vietnam will not join
the United States in the "China containment game" and will
not join China against the United States, he declared.
Vietnam wants the maximum possible big-power engagement in
Southeast Asia to maximize stability.


8. (SBU) The United States is losing its position and
failing to protect its interests in the region compared with
China, Dr. Tuan continued. Chinese interests, meanwhile,
are expanding quickly. To strengthen the U.S. position in
Southeast Asia, ASEAN wants to see a stronger linkage
between USG statements of policy and action; that means more
economic involvement, more encouragement of market economies
and more direct investment. Vietnam's WTO entry is an
excellent test case: the United States should support it
and not hold out and force Vietnam into a bad position. He
warned that Vietnamese leaders and opinion makers compare
the deal the United States struck with China on WTO with the
Vietnam negotiations and see that the United States is
actually being harder on Vietnam, sometimes blaming U.S.
intransigence on "Vietnam Syndrome" whereby Americans cannot
get over the war. The experts understand that the issues in
question are actually technical and economic rather than
political, but domestic political calculations and
perceptions result in the United States being seen in a bad
light.


9. (SBU) Researcher Pham Ngoc Uyen said that hosting APEC
and the visit of President Bush will be very good for
Vietnam and for the U.S. image in Southeast Asia. The
Secretary of State's failure to attend the ASEAN Regional

SIPDIS
Forum ministerial in Vientiane in 2005 was "very damaging"
to the United States in Southeast Asia and resulted in a
brief downturn in relations. This was followed by the
United States not being invited to participate in the East
Asia Summit, which further fortified the notion that the
United States is insufficiently involved in the area.
Meanwhile, China is "harvesting a good crop" at the United
States' expense in the form of economic cooperation,
cultural exchanges and institution-level relations. This is
not in Southeast Asia's best interests, because greater
commitment of big powers in Southeast Asia should not be
zero-sum, with China filling gaps the United States leaves
behind; instead, both sides should contribute to regional
stability by increasing their involvement in the region,
Uyen said.

How to Engage with Southeast Asia
--------------


10. (SBU) Vietnam and Southeast Asia are fighting the side
effects of globalization, Uyen continued, and in this there
are high expectations of the United States. President Bush
should use his visit to Vietnam to declare that the United
States will increase its commitment to reducing the earning
gap between rich and poor, and to eradicating poverty. He
should strengthen the United States' support for ASEAN
institutions, including the ASEAN Regional Forum and the

HANOI 00000683 003.2 OF 005


Post Ministerial Conference. He should also extend the U.S.
commitment to fighting diseases such as HIV/AIDS and AI and
should lay out a plan for technology transfer, especially to
poor countries.


11. (SBU) In addition to these positive steps, the President
should also speak softly on human rights and democracy, and
recognize that there are diverse cultures in the region,
both in terms of society and political development, that
require careful handling, the senior researcher said. Even
in Burma, the United States should not pressure the
government or ASEAN. ASEAN is already working on promoting
positive change in Burma; referring the situation to the UN
Security Council would be counterproductive and opposed by
ASEAN countries. In addition, China would certainly veto
any action.


12. (SBU) Overall, Uyen concluded, the United States has a
range of interests in Southeast Asia, including meeting the
challenges and opportunities provided by China; taking
advantage of the benefits of greater economic ties; and,
fulfilling the United States' role as a world leader. In
addition to these interests, there is also the fact that the
U.S. presence in Southeast Asia deters the rise of Japanese
militarism. Finally, Southeast Asia is the second front of
the War on Terrorism.


13. (SBU) Luan Thi Duong, the Director of IIR's Center for
Southeast Asian Studies, said that Vietnam sees the U.S.
presence in Southeast Asia as a necessity given China's rise
and the development of potential security "hotspots" in the
region. In addition, she said, Southeast Asia is a region
in transition, with many countries in the midst of
significant political development. The United States has an
interest in affecting the course of the transition and
development, in particular by encouraging U.S. values. The
region is "building its community" through regional
architecture, and the United States should be concerned
about being excluded from that. The United States' main
challenge is to find a way to express and secure its
interests without triggering a negative reaction from
Southeast Asians. In addressing that challenge, the United
States should keep in mind that in Southeast Asia, the
comparison of U.S. actions with Chinese actions is
inevitable.


14. (SBU) The United States, she said, pays too much
attention to bilateral relations and alliances in the region
and not enough attention to multilateral relations and the
maintenance of U.S. interests. The U.S. focus on Thailand
and the Philippines provokes China into trying to generate
its own alliances with Burma, Cambodia and Laos, and even
possibly with Vietnam. This is negative for stability and
does not contribute much to China or the United States.
China, she said, is better at building comprehensive
relations with ASEAN as a unit and is pursuing ambitious
goals like a China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and some kind of
China-ASEAN security agreement, including China-ASEAN
multilateral security exercises. The United States can
counter this in the short term by broadening its security
focus and diversifying from its concentration on
counterterrorism to address all nontraditional security
threats. However, in the long run, the country that focuses
the most (and the most effectively) on economic development
in the region will have the greatest influence.


15. (SBU) Duong said Vietnam hopes that U.S.-Vietnam
military and defense ties will expand and will be positive.
Vietnam expects an exchange of information and cooperation.
This, and expanded defense and military ties elsewhere in
the region, will be good for stability and U.S. interests,
assuming the United States can avoid provoking a negative
Chinese reaction.

More China Paranoia
--------------


16. (SBU) Deputy Director Tuan asked what the United States
would do if China were to close off the Spratly Islands to
international navigation, or to occupy them and deny other
countries access to the area. In the future, it is likely
that the Chinese military will be the second most powerful
in the world, he said. Based on its own past experience
with China, Vietnam is not optimistic for benign regional
developments when China has ample power projection
capability.


17. (SBU) Uyen said China's "urge" is to expand its

HANOI 00000683 004.2 OF 005


influence. To the north, east and southwest, China's
expansion is strongly constrained. The likely outlet for
that expansionist urge is to the southeast, where individual
states are relatively weak. The developing capability of
the Chinese navy exacerbates the worries of Southeast Asian
states and this is why the region welcomes the U.S.
presence, Uyen said. Dr. Tuan agreed with this assessment,
and noted that China has to do a lot more to convince its
neighbors of its truly peaceful and innocent intentions.

Regional Architecture
--------------


18. (SBU) According to Dr. Tuan, one current tactic for
building stability in Asia is through the mechanism of a
possible East Asian Community (EAC),a community that would
have enormous economic potential. Southeast Asia is anxious
for China's participation in making this a reality. China,
however, may not be as enthusiastic. In 2004, Dr. Tuan
explained, Beijing was looking for ways to dominate the
region in one way or another and saw the East Asian Summit
(viewed as a possible precursor to the EAC) as a tool for
that. Some countries supported China's ambitions in this
regard, and some opposed it by encouraging increasing
involvement of other powers in the mechanism, including
Australia, New Zealand and India. Furious diplomatic
maneuvering in an effort to "balance" China within the
ASEAN+3 and by bringing in outsiders was effective, but it
also made China less interested in the EAS.


19. (SBU) It is clear that many countries, including the
United States, do not truly appreciate the important role of
an independent ASEAN in building a stable Asian community,
Dr. Tuan said. To be sure, he acknowledged, ASEAN may need
to make some changes or else it will have deficiencies in
the future. A lack of unity is the main deficiency; a
unified ASEAN would be Asia's second largest country, and
that would ensure that ASEAN's voice is heard, he said
wistfully.


20. (SBU) Dr. Tuan noted that Asian regional architecture
institutions have a great deal of overlap. This overlap is
inefficient, and the United States has an opportunity to
reorganize or reorient Asian regional architecture
institutions both to make the most of each institution and
to improve the United States' role and standing in them.
Regional institutions should return to their roots, Dr. Tuan
said. APEC, for example, was conceived as a forum to
discuss trade, market liberalization, investment and
economic development. However, it evolved differently and
its agenda expanded to include counterterrorism and
security. This expansion makes APEC a mess, he said; it is
a very large waste of money with more than 100 meetings per
year. The ARF is sufficient to address security issues, and
if the member states are not vigilant, the ARF could evolve
into an economic forum as well. The United States is
persuasive in its argument for a linkage between economic
issues and security in APEC, and it should be aware that the
same linkage could be invoked in the other direction to
justify expanding the ARF's mandate and diluting Asian
institutions even further.


21. (SBU) Vietnam, he continued, is experiencing serious
"meeting fatigue." Principal Vice Foreign Minister Le Cong
Phung "at this point does nothing at all but attend regional
meetings," Dr. Tuan said; in total, Vietnam has counted over
700 ASEAN, APEC, EAS, ARF and other regional institution
meetings to which it has to send representatives every year,
consuming huge human and financial resources. If the United
States decides to take the lead in reforming and
rationalizing these institutions, it can count on strong
support from Vietnam, he said.


22. (SBU) Dr. Tuan expanded a bit on his recommendations for
a U.S. role in East Asian regional architecture. Ultimately,
he said, any successful regional architecture has to be
based on strong economic cooperation. An East Asia Free
Trade Area (EAFTA) will have to be the prerequisite for an
East Asian Community, and ASEAN+3 should be the foundation
of the EAFTA. To make this happen, the states of Southeast
Asia need to demonstrate more cohesiveness, a fact which is
driving the 2020 ASEAN goals, particularly with regard to
the ASEAN security community, the ASEAN economic community
and the ASEAN cultural and social community. The United
States needs to evaluate its proper role carefully; it is an
important part of the Asia-Pacific region, but it is not an
East Asian power and has no more place in an East Asian
organization than it does in the European Union. The United

HANOI 00000683 005.2 OF 005


States is best suited to influence the region through
engagement on specific issues, not through direct
participation in its organizations.


23. (SBU) Dr. Duong noted that ASEAN is often compared to
(and often compares itself to) the EU, but this is an
inaccurate comparison. The EU members all focus primarily
on the EU, while ASEAN members have multiple communities and
institutions in which to participate. The EU has a legally
binding rule structure, while East Asian institutions are
based on the principles of equality and noninterference, and
are all nonbinding. "We exist together in peace, stability
and cooperation, without rules," Duong said. ASEAN is now
working on formalizing the organization through the ASEAN
Charter. There are many drafts and concepts under
consideration for the ASEAN Charter, but none of them
contains binding precepts. Individual countries are truly
independent, consistent with the nature of the region. It
is impossible to imagine any Asian community evolving into
an EU-like structure, she declared.


24. (SBU) Uyen hedged Duong's statement a bit, saying that
an EU-like arrangement for Asia would be "desirable," but
not possible in the immediate future. In the medium term,
he said, it could be possible, but Asia must first move
beyond the existing system of top-down political states that
concentrate decision-making in the leadership. Dang Cam Tu,
the deputy director of the Southeast Asia Center, opined
that overlapping regional architecture structures and
communities in East Asia are "mutually reinforcing."
Vietnam supports "open regionalism," but is sensitive to the
fact that the larger the core group, the more difficult the
process is. ASEAN+3 is a good basis to build on, he said,
but it has some fundamental problems, namely:

- The China-Japan antagonism undermines the unity of the
ASEAN+3 grouping;
- Maintaining ASEAN's key role in any regional architecture
structure or process is difficult because of the lack of
cohesion within ASEAN itself; and,
- China, the heavyweight in the grouping, lacks enthusiasm
for Southeast Asia-centered regional groupings and
especially the EAC after what it perceives as a failure in
its effort to build the EAS to its specifications last year.


25. (SBU) With this in mind, Tu said, the United States
should strive to handle its relations with Japan in a way
that does not exacerbate China-Japan tensions, and support
relations with ASEAN as a whole, rather than focus on
bilateral relationships, in order to strengthen ASEAN
cohesion. The United States should also avoid the
impression the community-building process is designed to
counter China.
Comment
--------------


26. (SBU) Vietnam's highest priority national interests were
on display at this roundtable meeting: a strong ASEAN,
rapid economic development and enough U.S. presence in the
region to provide some degree of security against a "rising"
China that might challenge Vietnam's cherished independence.
The discussion also demonstrated Vietnam's concern about
U.S. intentions: the GVN wants the benefits of U.S.
involvement in Southeast Asia, but does not like U.S.
interference in Vietnam's political development and wants to
see a firm Southeast Asia identity established that keeps
the United States engaged but on the outside. We found this
dialogue with some of Vietnam's foremost foreign policy
experts from an influential institution within the GVN
remarkable for the range of opinions expressed and the
obvious intellectual freedom the participants enjoy. IIR
continues to be an excellent source of insight and a channel
of communication to improve mutual understanding. End
Comment.

MARINE