VIETNAM A STAUNCH BUT SLOW SUPPORTER OF EAS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000166 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEAN VM SUBJECT: VIETNAM A STAUNCH BUT SLOW SUPPORTER OF EAS HANOI 00000166 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary and Comment: Vietnam, originally opposed to the East Asian Summit (EAS) because of fears it would dilute ASEAN's influence, has become a strong supporter of the new edifice in East Asian regional architecture. Vietnam views the EAS now as a way to strengthen Asian unity and bring more issues into multilateral forums. The addition of Australia, New Zealand, India and (Vietnam hopes) eventually Russia will bring greater engagement by those nations in Southeast Asia, offsetting (and mellowing) China's influence in the region. Despite this positive view of the EAS, Vietnam is not likely in the short term to take an active leadership role in this (or any) institution and will avoid trend-setting on contentious issues, preferring instead to join consensus after comprehensive rounds of consultations with other ASEANs. Other ASEANs, Singapore in particular, find Vietnam's go-slow tendencies difficult to understand. End Summary and Comment. MFA: MOVE SLOW AND MUMBLE PLATITUDES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Poloff met with MFA ASEAN Desk Officer Ha Thi Ngoc Ha December 28 to discuss Vietnam's position in and on the EAS. Ha was well-armed with the official EAS declaration and a few talking points from the office of the MFA Spokesman, and so provided "strong statements" reciting Vietnam's "high appreciation" for this "historic event." Vietnam notes that this was the first East Asia Summit, Ha helpfully pointed out. After considerable prodding, she acknowledged that Vietnam changed its tune on the EAS after satisfying itself that ASEAN's position "in the driver's seat" of the EAS changed the EAS from a mechanism to dilute ASEAN's influence to one that elevated ASEAN's importance as the anchor for an organization that will complement the ASEAN+3. Ha also revealed that Vietnam supports the further development of the EAS and the addition of Russia, a position that she believes Indonesia and Singapore do not support. The sticking point currently obstructing consensus is the fact that some ASEAN countries disagree on the question of whether there is "substantial" ASEAN-Russia cooperation, one of the three criteria for membership in the EAS. ¶3. (SBU) When asked about Vietnam's plans for the EAS, Ha said that Vietnam supports the creation of an East Asian Community (EAC) in the long term, but is concerned that in the short term, severe differences in the development levels of Asian countries would make that impossible. Vietnam supports using the EAS as a mechanism to advance the goal of narrowing the development gap between rich and poor. The EAC "needs to be considered step-by-step over the long term." At this point, the modalities of the EAS are not agreed, she observed, with the question even of holding a senior officials' meeting still not decided within ASEAN. Vietnam supports the EAS, she concluded, but wants to ensure that the plans for the EAS are "well considered" and that the EAS does not take on more of a mandate than all member countries think appropriate. THINK TANK: KEEP IN MIND THAT VIETNAM IS NEW AT THIS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Director of Vietnam's Institute for Southeast Asian Studies Dr. Pham Duc Thanh told Poloff December 29 that Vietnam's stance on the EAS and EAC is based on its perception that the emergence of an East Asian Community is inevitable; that China will be the "nucleus" of such a grouping; and that for ASEAN to retain its relevance and importance it will have to make East Asian architecture as inclusive as possible while guarding ASEAN prerogatives and interests. ¶5. (SBU) Vietnam has evolved extremely quickly, Dr. Thanh continued, from a country with a foreign policy slavishly crafted according to the Soviet line to an ASEAN country that has linked its future to other ASEAN countries' collective success. "Very recently," Thanh said, "Vietnam was the greatest enemy of ASEAN countries. Now the ASEAN members are like brothers." Vietnam is still developing its foreign policy proficiency and testing out possible international roles. "You may be frustrated with Vietnam's cautiousness, but you must remember we are just learning to walk." Currently, Vietnamese foreign policy is unsophisticated, he acknowledged, but Vietnam is developing its outlook and capabilities in that area. ¶6. (SBU) The foreign affairs bureaucracy in Vietnam spent a great deal of time and effort working out an appropriate HANOI 00000166 002.2 OF 002 response to the EAS, Dr. Thanh said, because this was a case where Vietnam had to follow its own counsel and could not rely on ASEAN consensus to guide its policy. In the end, Vietnam decided that it would be best for Vietnam and ASEAN if the EAS were to go forward with ASEAN in the driver's seat and with as much participation as possible from outside the ASEAN+3 grouping. Vietnam definitely wants Russia to participate in EAS, he said, and sees a potentially constructive role for the United States as well. Vietnam has not considered the practical aspects of the EAC because it seems too unrealistic at the moment. "In 100 years, we may have an EAC," Dr. Thanh said, "but in the near future, Japan and China seem too far apart." Still, some further degree of intertwining and interdependence in Asia is inevitable, and Vietnam wants to be sure it plays a constructive role in that process that protects Vietnam's interests, Thanh concluded. "NEIGHBOR" DIPLOMATS: VIETNAM AGGRAVATINGLY UNPREDICTABLE -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) An exasperated Singaporean diplomat told Poloff January 13 that Singapore has given up trying to determine Vietnam's position towards the EAS or EAC. "We don't know what they want, because they don't know what they want," the diplomat complained. She confirmed that Vietnam has stated its position definitively vis--vis Russian participation in the EAS, but said that Vietnam has not thought that decision through. "Singapore was not enthusiastic about the creation of the EAS in the first place," she continued, "and nor was Vietnam. But now that the EAS is a reality, we believe it should be an effective and well-crafted group, and we are concerned about some of Vietnam's positions." As an example, she cited Vietnam's unwillingness to take a position on the status of individual members. Singapore wants to ensure that there is not "tiered membership" in the EAS, with non-ASEAN+3 countries relegated to the cheap seats, because this scenario would likely cause the interest and commitment of India, Australia and New Zealand to falter, ultimately playing into the hands of those who would prefer to exclude those countries anyway. Vietnam should oppose this if it genuinely supports an inclusive EAS. The fact that Singapore cannot extract a commitment either way on this issue is emblematic of Vietnam's frustrating approach to the EAS and ASEAN issues in general, she said. BOARDMAN