Cuenca's Leaders Foresee Correa Victory

UNCLAS GUAYAQUIL 000939

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE, SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EINV ETRD EFIS EC
SUBJECT: Cuenca's Leaders Foresee Correa Victory



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Cuenca's political, media, religious and business
leaders told visiting Guayaquil Consul General that Rafael Correa
would win the upcoming presidential elections. Few of the leaders
we spoke with believe that Correa would necessarily pursue the
radical policies on which he is campaigning. If he were to, they
warned that his tenure would be short, as either the military or
business elite would step in to force him out. Although Ecuador's
third largest city is traditionally a stronghold of the Democratic
Left Party (ID),currently in alliance with Leon Roldos, provincial
leaders asserted that Roldos's campaign was falling flat. Correa's
campaign's emphasis on change resonates with voters, and his
opponents appear incapable of clearly communicating their vision for
Ecuador. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) From September 18 to 20, the Consul General and Conoff
visited Cuenca, capital of the province of Azuay, to pay courtesy
calls on key government officials, media contacts, business leaders
and heads of prominent local universities. The upcoming national
elections in October were on the minds of nearly all interlocutors,
who willingly offered their views on the campaign and the
candidates.

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CUENCA'S OFFICIALS UNANIMOUS: "CORREA WILL WIN"
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3. (U) Nearly all interlocutors in Cuenca agreed that Correa will
likely win the presidential elections in October. According to Paul
Carrasco, ID prefect of the province of Azuay and self-proclaimed
friend of Correa, "People are looking for something different, and
Correa is offering it to them." Azuay Governor Pedro Vintimilla, a
non-career politician with a business background, agreed. "People
are tired of the same faces," he added. Most believed that Correa
would win in the second round, but Jorge Piedra Ledesma, Vice Mayor
of Cuenca and former member of the ID party (now independent),went
a step further, declaring that Correa would win by such a large
margin in the first round that a second balloting would not be
necessary.


4. (U) Representatives from the Ecuadorian-American Chamber of
Commerce in Cuenca said Correa's and charisma and connection with
voters' concerns are putting him ahead of Roldos and Viteri.
"Correa is saying what people want to hear," said Pedro Jerves
Ramirez, President of the Chamber. "Viteri and Roldos have
supporters, but they're not offering solutions." Adriano
Vintimilla, Director of the Telerama TV station added, "Correa is a
more marketable product."

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IF RADICAL, HE MAY NOT GOVERN FOR LONG
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5. (U) Though resigned to a Correa victory, few of our contacts
envision stability for a Correa government, if elected. Pedro
Vintimilla pointed to several perceived weakness, saying, "He has no
plan, no team and no party. Congress will not work with him."
Adriano Vintimilla highlighted the last point, adding, "The
institution of president is not so strong here. With no allies in
Congress, Correa would have to dissolve it." Carrasco was blunter.
"He will not last six months if he pursues his platform," the
prefect stated.


6. (U) Given the challenges that Correa would face in his first
year, many in Cuenca believed that he is saying only what is
necessary to get elected and that his policies may change after the
elections. Several interlocutors opined that, despite his
reputation, Correa is less revolutionary than Venezuelan president
Hugo Chavez. "He is definitely not a Chavista," said Piedra
Ledesma. Monseor Vicente Cisneros Duran, Archbishop of Cuenca,
added that, unlike Chavez, Correa has courted the support of the
Catholic Church. "He is not like [former Peruvian leftist
presidential candidate Ollanta] Humala," said Carrasco. "I think he
will change focus [i.e., become more moderate] during the second
round of the elections."


7. (U) COMMENT: Azuay is an anomaly in Ecuador--an ID stronghold
strongly in favor of free trade. The main reason ID leaders in
Cuenca may be so pessimistic about Roldos' chances, even while local
polling by two major newspapers shows Roldos leading voter
preferences in Azuay, probably relates to Correa's effective
positioning as the candidate for radical change. Azuay has always
resented the concentration of national political power in Quito and
Guayaquil, and voters there may hope Correa will shift the balance.
Another reason could be simmering tensions within the ID in Azuay,
which was divided over whether to support Roldos. Regardless,
Cuenca's ID political leaders appear resigned to a Correa win. The
belief that Correa would be more pragmatic as president than on the
campaign trail strikes us as wishful thinking, a sentiment shared by
many of the center left.

GRIFFITHS