GUATEMALA'S RISING CRIME, COSTS DEEPEN POLITICAL

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000856

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPAO SNAR GT
SUBJECT: GUATEMALA'S RISING CRIME, COSTS DEEPEN POLITICAL
DISAFFECTION



1. Summary. Guatemalans are most concerned about violent
crime and the rising cost of living, the majority believes
that Guatemala is on the wrong path, and many Guatemalans say
they are worse off than one year ago. Those were the
findings of a nation-wide CID-Gallup survey conducted from
April 3-12, 2006, findings consistent with similar CID-Gallup
surveys carried out during the last two years. Also, while
citizens held the current government in low regard, they were
pessimistic about whether the next election would help solve
the country's problems. These latest results also confirmed
that the vast majority does not identify with any of
Guatemala's political parties. End summary.


2. Guatemalans were deeply dissatisfied with present
conditions and also pessimistic about the future. Crime and
violence was identified (52%) as the most serious problem
facing the country overall (note: 42% of those living in
Guatemala City said that a member of their household had been
a victim of robbery or assault during the last four months).
Seventy-six percent of Guatemalans said they saw no
improvement in their economic condition during the last year
and an equal number expected their economic condition would
remain the same or worsen during the next 12 months.
Respondents overwhelmingly identified "rising costs of basic
goods" (61%) as the economic problem that would most affect
the country during the coming year. Most said they believed
that Guatemala is on the wrong path (64%),and most believed
that the Berger administration would leave Guatemala either
the same or in worse condition than it had found it (71%),
but very few (20%) expected the 2007 presidential elections
would help solve Guatemala's problems.


3. Most of those surveyed had taken little interest in the
upcoming 2007 presidential elections and it appears the field
is wide open. Nearly half of those surveyed could offer no
answer to the question, "Who do you consider will be the next
president of the country?" The most popular response was
Alvaro Colom of UNE, who lost to Berger in run-off elections
in 2003. When offered a sample ballot, the largest number
expressed support for Colom (35%),followed by Nobel laureate
Rigoberta Menchu (8%),former Vice-President Luis Flores
Asturias (7%); and former head of government and FRG
Secretary General Efrain Rios Montt (7%). In December 2005,

SIPDIS
only 25% of respondents expressed support for Colom, which
appears to indicate growing support for his presumed
candidacy.


4. Respondents were even less likely to identify with a party
than a candidate. Sixty-six percent indicated they did not
prefer any political party over another; 11% named UNE,
Colom's party, followed by GANA (6%),PAN (5%),and FRG (5%).
In addition, when asked, "How much do you feel you are
represented by the country's current political parties?" only
13% responded either "somewhat" or "very much." Notably, the
number of citizens claiming affiliation with the governing
GANA party has fallen 30% since April 2004.


5. CID-Gallup surveyed 1200 adults across Guatemala from
April 3 to 12. Respondents were evenly split between men and
women and 16% lived in the Guatemala City metro area. The
margin of error for this survey is /- 2.8 points.


6. Comment. The results of the April survey are consistent
with trends in public opinion over the past two years and
reflect disappointment over the Berger administration's
failure to make inroads against poverty and unrelenting
violent crime. These results also underscore the ongoing
failure of Guatemala's political parties to institutionalize
and expand their bases of support. Instead, Guatemalans
continue to identify much more strongly with individual
candidates than parties. Among potential candidates, Colom
appears to be well ahead of the field and, when compared to
previous surveys, it seems that his support is growing;
however, at this point, his strong numbers are more likely
due to name recognition after two failed presidential
candidacies than evidence of a committed following. End
comment.
Derham