GUATEMALAN NATIONAL DIALOGUE OFF TO SHAKY START

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001012 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM ELAB EAID PGOV EFIN EAGR GT SUBJECT: GUATEMALAN NATIONAL DIALOGUE OFF TO SHAKY START ¶1. The GOG kicked off a new national dialogue on social issues on May 15. Formally called the National Accords for the Implementation of Social Spending and the Reduction of Poverty, the effort aims to bring together elements of Guatemalan government and society to share ideas on addressing poverty and social inequality. In addition to GOG officials, participants will include representatives from NGOs, labor, indigenous groups, human rights organizations, the business sector, and political parties. The dialogue, led by Vice President Stein, will have four major thematic &axes8: Rural Development, Health and Nutrition, Indigenous Groups and Inclusion, and Transparency and Social Auditing. Each theme will be covered by a subgroup that will have three months to draft recommendations for GOG actions to reduce poverty. ¶2. During the launch of the Accords, it was clear that longstanding social and political divides remain firmly entrenched. This was particularly evident in details as small as the seating of the attendees, with the room almost evenly divided between the white and ladino business and government leaders on the left side and significantly indigenous origin civil sector representatives on the right. When Nery Barrios, a prominent left-leaning labor leader, addressed the audience he used the opportunity to harshly criticize the GOG, a stance that drew strong applause from the right side of the room and silence from the left side of the room. ¶3. Comment: The GOG's poor track record on social issues means that a significant number of civil sector representatives may decline to participate in the dialogue, a stance that may lead business sector and possibly even political party representatives to also sit out the process. (Note: Neither CACIF, the principal Guatemalan business lobby organization nor the Catholic Church have yet made decisions about their participation in the dailogue. End note.) Because of these deep-seated, institutionalized differences, and the short time frame (three months) given to make recommendations, we believe that the dialogue has little chance of success. Despite very limited prospects for success, the GOG is moving ahead. Judging from the focus and language of the GOG summary of the Accord process, one of the objectives for the exercise is to improve Guatemala's chances to qualify for a Millenium Challenge Account Derham