Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06GUANGZHOU31565
2006-10-20 00:12:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Guangzhou
Cable title:  

South China's Taiwan Scholars Concerned about Chen, but

Tags:  PREL PGOV SOCI CH TW 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 031565 

SIPDIS

PACOM FOR FPA
STATE FOR EUR/CM AND DRL

SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI CH TW
SUBJECT: South China's Taiwan Scholars Concerned about Chen, but
Believe KMT Will Win in '07 and '08


(U) This document is sensitive but unclassified, please protect
accordingly.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 031565

SIPDIS

PACOM FOR FPA
STATE FOR EUR/CM AND DRL

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI CH TW
SUBJECT: South China's Taiwan Scholars Concerned about Chen, but
Believe KMT Will Win in '07 and '08


(U) This document is sensitive but unclassified, please protect
accordingly.


1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Taiwan research centers throughout South
China are concerned about Chen Shui-bian's strategy for
constitutional reform and the impact it could have on cross-Strait
ties. They also worry that the anti-Chen campaign could have a
significant negative impact on Taiwan's economic growth as well its
national well-being. While some argue the campaign may have helped
the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the short-term, most agree
Chen will lose the Presidential election in 2008, but are unclear
what a loss will mean in terms of the DPP's future. Some elements
in the KMT - the old guard for instance - appear to be using the
current political turmoil in Taiwan to push an agenda for improved
relations with the mainland; a limited reconciliation, but not
resolution of the "one China" issue. Recent visits by former KMT
Party leader Lien Chan and others to South China don't necessarily
signal a "back-channel diplomacy" to Beijing by current KMT
officials like Ma Yingjeou, who will not want to be painted by the
brush of appearing to be too eager to enter into China's embrace.
China, of course, will see these visits differently and portray them
as a clear sign of the desire on the part of the people of Taiwan
for warmer relations. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

GDASS Taiwan Research Institute
--------------


2. (SBU) The Guangdong Academy of Social Science's (GDASS) Hong
Kong, Macau and Taiwan Research Center is one of only three
Guangdong-based Taiwan research institutes (the others are in
Shantou and Shenzhen). The center - which was established four
years ago and focuses on the province's regional economic
cooperation with Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan - has only one scholar
dedicated to Taiwan political issues, Fan Haiquan. Fan, who is
known for his hawkish views, told visiting Poloff that he is
technically retired, and his research interests are not dictated by
the Beijing Taiwan Affairs Office. However, the institute
occasionally receives national- and provincial-level research
assignments on certain topics, such as Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan
investment. Additionally, the institute sometimes approaches
municipal and county leaders with research proposals on strategies
to increase Taiwan investment.

Anti-Chen Protests Helpful to DPP
--------------


3. (SBU) In a meeting with Poloff on October 16, Fan criticized U.S.
military support of Taiwan, which he says emboldens Taiwan with a

false sense of support. He believes that U.S. policy is shifting
towards supporting mainland China's views, but that the process is
"too slow." Regarding Taiwan's domestic politics, Fan argued that
the anti-Chen Suibian protests over the past few months have
actually helped the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). He cited a
recent Kaohsiung poll showing that Kuomintang (KMT) popularity had
decreased by four percent, while DPP popularity had increased in the
past few months. Polls generally showed Chen's popularity slightly
increasing, with the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou's popularity slightly
decreasing.

...But DPP has Reached its Peak
--------------


4. (SBU) In a recent article, Fan criticized the political parties
in Taiwan, calling the major parties "five ghosts" that are not able
to represent the people's will. He concluded that Taiwan's
democratic situation is not as "mature" as in the West, and that the
current situation hinders the growth of democracy. Fan said that
the KMT's control of the Legislative Yuan (LY),recent mayoral and
county-level electoral success, and the downturn in the economy all
have seriously damaged the DPP's prestige and that the upcoming
elections do not look good for the DPP.

KMT Will Win in 2006, 2007, and 2008
--------------


5. (SBU) Fan believes the KMT will win all three of the major
elections -- the 2006 Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections, the
2007 legislative elections, and the 2008 Presidential election. In
the LY, he believes the KMT will likely gain 70 seats and the DPP
will get between 30 and 40 seats; the People First Party will still
be the third major party, followed by the Taiwan Solidarity Union.
Because of the proximity of the 2007 legislative elections to the
2008 Presidential election, Fan said the overall winner of 2007
elections will likely win the Presidential election as well.


GUANGZHOU 00031565 002 OF 003


FASS Taiwan Research Institute
--------------


6. (SBU) The Fujian Academy of Social Science's (FASS) Taiwan
Research Institute, founded in the 1970's as mainland China's first
Taiwan research institute, has 12 scholars working on Taiwan
political, economic, and trade relations, as well as general social
developments. Taiwan is a theme that engages officials and scholars
on an everyday basis, with some seeing the three links as a key to
future economic development; 80,000-100,000 Taiwan citizens already
live in Fujian. In July, FASS scholars told Poloff they were "very
concerned about the future of Taiwan before 2008," specifically
citing Chen Shui-bian's "striding toward independence." The
scholars believe that Chen will not be re-elected, because the
majority of Taiwan people want him to step down. The scholars
stated that the Taiwan people are "tired of corruption and six years
of a presidency with no major accomplishment." One scholar noted
that he had recently met with the former chairman of mainland
affairs from Taiwan, who said the DPP is facing its "biggest crisis
since its establishment."


7. (SBU) The institute also focuses on the development of the
"Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone" and the expansion of the
"three links." One scholar mentioned that in a July conference in
Taiwan on sustainable development, virtually all of the Taiwan
officials, academics, and entrepreneurs recommended that there be
fewer economic restrictions across the straits. As for the Chinese
military threat toward Taiwan, one scholar reaffirmed China's
commitment to peaceful development, and said that the Sino-Russian
joint air and amphibious exercise in the summer of 2005, which many
interpreted as a demonstration of China's capabilities, was
primarily an anti-terrorism exercise.

Xiamen University's Taiwan Research Institute
--------------


8. (U) In 1983, Fujian Province created a second Taiwan research
institute at Xiamen University (previously the institute had focused
only on Taiwan's culture and literature). Xiamen University's
Taiwan Research Institute, which the consulate has visited many
times, is regarded as South China's premier think tank on Taiwan.
Recent articles from the institute's spring edition of the "Taiwan
Research Quarterly" focused on the dangers of Chen Shui-bian's
constitutional reforms. In one article, scholar Li Peng concluded
that Taiwan's economic depression and political and social unrest
are all connected with the constitutional debates in Taiwan. Li
argued that the debate on reforming the constitution has "given rise
to a different orientation of Taiwan's self-understanding."
Consequently, Li wrote, a "chaos" of national identity has fallen on
the Taiwan people, faith in the constitutional order has been lost,
and relations between mainland China and Taiwan have worsened.
Another of the Institute's scholars, Zhang Wensheng, argued that
Chen's goal since 2000 has been "de jure Taiwan Independence though
Constitutional Reform." Due to objections from the Taiwan public,
mainland China, and the international community, however, Zhang
suggested that Chen believed it was now impossible to complete
constitutional reform, as he would be forced to amend the
constitution, and under the current circumstances, that was not
possible.

Recent Taiwan Visitors to South China
--------------



9. (U) Lien Chan, former Chairman of the KMT, and an entourage of 17
other KMT leaders recently have been traveling across South China as
part of a 16-day mainland trip. In April 2005, Lien led the first
delegation of top KMT leaders to the mainland since 1949. During
their visit to Guangzhou on October 12, 2006, the group visited
Huanghuagang, a Martyr Grave for soldiers who died during a failed
coup against the Qing Dynasty Government. Although Lien does not
represent the current KMT leadership, the provincial leadership in
Guangzhou gave him a warm welcome, with meetings with Guangdong
Party Secretary Zhang Dejiang and Guangzhou Party Secretary Zhu
Xiaodan to discuss Taiwan investment in the province. The South
China Morning Post reported that during his discussions, Lien blamed
Chen Shuibian for creating "lots of obstacles to cross-strait
relations," and that his polices have put Taiwan on "the way of
recession" because of closed-door economic policies. Lien's group
also traveled to Hainan Province where, on October 16, Lien
delivered the opening address for a 400-person cross-strait
agricultural forum between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP). Lien said that he hoped the forum would allow Taiwan's
farmers to sell more of their products to the vast mainland market,
and that mainland farmers could learn from the technological

GUANGZHOU 00031565 003 OF 003


advances of Taiwan.

GOLDBERG

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